SHORT & MEDIUM TERM REQUIREMENTS AND USAGE FOR FISH-MEAL AND OILCAKE

(Updated November 2008)

TABLE 1 FISH-MEAL & OILCAKE BALANCE SHEET (2006/2007-2008/2009) • (APRIL-MARCH)   FISH-MEAL (TON) OILCAKE (TON) YEAR 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 Requirements / Sales 80,000 60,000 100,000 1,635,526 1,758,185 1,700,000 Available / Produced 87,000 91,700 91,000 608,370 494,557 695,291 Shortage / Imports (-7,000) (-31,700) 9,000 1,027,156 1,263,628 1,004,709 2007/2008 - Estimate • Source: Fishing Industry; AFMA Chairman's Report 2007/2008

TABLE 2 FISH-MEAL & OILCAKE USAGE (2006/2007-2008/2009) • (APRIL-MARCH)   FISH-MEAL (TON) OILCAKE (TON) YEAR 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 AFMA Members 37,871 48,156 92,599 1,063,945 1,094,941 1,085,875 Non-AFMA Members 42,129 11,844 7,401 571,581 663,244 614,125 TOTAL 80,000 60,000 100,000 1,635,526 1,758,185 1,700,000 Source: AFMA Chairman's Report 2007/2008 • 2008/2009 - Estimate Non-AFMA Members figures can also include unused stocks.

TABLE 3 THE MAIN RAW MATERIAL USAGE BY AFMA-MEMBERS (APRIL-MARCH)(2006/2007-2008/2009) RAW MATERIALS TOTAL (TON) 2006/2007 INCLUSION RATE (%) TOTAL (TON) 2007/2008 INCLUSION RATE (%) TOTAL (TON) 2008/2009 INCLUSION RATE (%) Sunflower oilcake 169,172 3.79 167,836 2.67 253,114 4.96 Groundnuts oilcake 316 0.01 0 0.00 2 0.00 Soy oilcake 653,463 14.64 752,073 15.35 711,034 13.39 Full fat soy 183,047 4.10 130,609 2.67 81,449 1.60 Cotton oilcake 35,590 0.80 19,068 0.39 23,911 0.47 Full fat cotton 10,241 0.23 9,074 0.19 4,946 0.10 Canola oilcake 4,330 0.10 2,963 0.06 2,472 0.05 Full fat canola 3,757 0.08 553 0.01 74 0.00 Copra and Palm Kernel 4,029 0.09 7,016 0.14 5,628 0.11 Maize Germ Oilcake 2,859 0.06 5,750 0.12 3,242 0.06 TOTAL OILCAKE 1,063,945 24.67 1,094,941 22.34 1,085,875 21.27 TOTAL MAIZE PRODUCTS 2,428,502 54.05 2,627,498 53.61 2,856,814 55.97 TOTAL FISH-MEAL 37,871 0.88 48,156 1.12 92,599 1.81 Source: AFMA Chairman's Report 2007/2008 AFMA raw material usage April 2008-March 2009 ¹ Note: Total oilcake in Table 3 include all oilcake and not only specific oilcake items listed in Table 3.

TABLE 4 FISH-MEAL: LOCAL PRODUCTION & IMPORTS (2006/2007-2008/2009) • (APRIL-MARCH)   LOCAL (RSA + NAMIBIA) FISH-MEAL PRODUCTION (TON) IMPORTED FISH-MEAL (TON) YEAR 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 RSA 75,000 85,000 85,000       Namibia 12,000 6,700 6,000       TOTAL 87,000 91,700 91,000 (-7,000) (-31,700) 9,000 Source: AFMA; SA Fish-meal Marketing Company • 2008/2009 - Estimate

TABLE 5 OILCAKE: LOCAL PRODUCTION & IMPORTS (2006/2007-2008/2009)   LOCAL OILCAKE PRODUCTION (TON) IMPORTED OILCAKE (TON) YEAR 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 OILCAKE             Groundnuts oilcake 2,515 54 540   344   Sunflower oilcake 199,500 138,558 371,935 68,808 103,987   Soy cake 113,440 115,200 258,396 808,051 904,214     - Full fat 189,840 138,000   3,949 104,377     - Beans             Cotton cake 32,500 32,500 32,500 99,617 109,988     - Full fat 35,000 35,000   39,766 33,338   Other       6,965 7,425   Canola 21,175 21,945 22,120       Lupins 14,400 13,300 9,800       Copra & Palm Kernel             TOTAL 608,370 494,557 695,291 1,027,156 1,263,673 1,004,709 Source: AFMA Chairman's report 2007/2008 Estimate - 2008/2009 The projected local production figures for soy and cotton reflect full fat and oilcake.

TABLE 6 OIL SEED & GRAIN CROPS IN THE RSA (TON) (2004/2005-2008/2009 MARKETING SEASON) CROP 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 White maize 5,805,000 6,540,700 4,187,400 4,315,000 7,098,250 Yellow maize 3,677,000 4,909,300 2,430,600 2,810,000 4,922,900 Sorghum 373,000 260,000 96,000 176,000 260,425 Groundnuts 115,000 64,000 74,000 58,000 85,360 Sunflower 648,000 620,000 520,000 300,000 885,560 Soybeans 220,000 272,500 424,000 205,000 308,295 Cotton seed 50,169 37,804 25,962 19,525 18,655 Wheat 1,680,000 1,905,000 2,105,000 1,905,000 2,106,000 Sweet lupins 3,950 14,100 14,400 13,300 14,000 Canola 32,000 44,200 36,500 38,150 35,700 Source: National Crop Estimates Committee; Third forecast for winter crops (23 October 2008) and final crop estimate for summer crops for the 2008/2009 marketing year (27 August 2008). SAGIS; Cotton South Africa.

TABLE 7 OIL SEED & GRAIN SUPPLY IN THE RSA (TON) (2008/2009 MARKETING SEASON) CROP OPENING STOCK IMPORTS TO RSA PRODUCTION TOTAL SUPPLY White maize 618,000 0 7,098,250 7,716,250 Yellow maize 439,000 100,000 4,922,900 5,461,900 Sorghum 43,000 0 260,425 303,425 Groundnuts 19,000 10,000 85,360 114,360 Sunflower 95,000 5,000 885,560 985,560 Soybeans 97,000 25,000 308,295 430,295 Wheat 533,000 1,130,000 2,106,000 3,769,000 Canola 10,900 5,000 35,700 51,600 Source: Opening stock, import and production figures obtained from Grain South Africa.

TABLE 8 AREA PLANTED TO OIL SEED & GRAIN CROPS IN THE RSA (2003/2004-2008/2009 PRODUCTION SEASON) CROP Ha PLANTED 2003/2004 Ha PLANTED 2004/2005 Ha PLANTED 2005/2006 Ha PLANTED 2006/2007 Ha PLANTED 2007/2008 Ha PLANTED 2008/2009 White maize 1,842,000 1,700,000 1,033,000 1,624,800 1,737,000 1,600,000 Yellow maize 1,001,300 1,110,000 567,200 927,000 1,062,000 962,000 Sorghum 130,000 86,500 37,150 69,000 86,800 94,900 Groundnuts 71,500 40,000 48,550 40,770 54,200 57,500 Sunflower 530,000 460,000 472,480 316,350 564,300 586,400 Soybeans 135,000 150,000 240,570 183,000 165,400 227,500 Wheat 748,000 830,000 805,000 764,800 632,000 748,000 Sweet lupins 10,100 7,100 14,100 16,000 14,000 14,000 Canola 44,200 44,250 40,200 32,000 33,260 34,000 Total 4,512,100 4,427,850 3,258,250 3,973,720 4,348,960 4,324,300 Source: National Crop Estimates Committee - Intentions to plant summer crops 2008/2009 production season (23 October 2008). Third area estimate for winter crops 2008/2009 production season (23 October 2008).

TABLE 9 NOTE ON MARKETING SEASON FOR SUMMER & WINTER CROPS CROPS SEASON White maize May-April Yellow maize May-April Sorghum April-March Groundnuts March-February Sunflower January-December Soybeans January-December Wheat October-September

 

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