Statistics & Estimates / Crop Estimates / 12 May 2017

The final area planted and crop production figures of winter cereals for the 2016 production season

Index of May 12 Mei Indeks

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Estimates courtecy of the Crop Estimates Committee
Syfers deur die Oesskattingskomitee verskaf

At a meeting held on 12 May 2017, the Crop Estimates Liaison Committee (CELC) oversaw the process for the finalisation of the crop production figures of commercial wheat, malting barley and canola for 2016.

The estimated total production figures as released by the national Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) were revised, using the published figures of the South Africa Grain Information Services (SAGIS) of actual deliveries as the basis for the calculations. The figures from the wheat utilisation survey to determine on-farm usage and retentions, which was conducted by the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF), were added to the SAGIS delivery figures to calculate the final crop production figures.

Comparing the final calculated crop figures with the numbers set by the CEC during February 2017, the size of the commercial wheat crop is now 1 910 000 million tons, which is 460 tons or 0,02% more than the final crop estimate figure of 1 909 540 million tons. For malting barley the re­calculated crop size is 355 000 tons, which is 935 tons or 0,26% more than the final crop estimate figure of 354 065 tons. The final recalculated canola crop estimate figure is 105 000 tons, which is lower (460 tons or 0,44%) than the final crop estimate figure of 105 460 tons.

CELC accepted the final recalculated crop production figures for 2016 (please refer to the figures in the accompanying tables).

The CEC would like to thank all producers and industry role-players who provided information on a regular basis to improve the accuracy of the crop estimates. Producers, who do not participate in the Department's monthly survey, are requested as a matter of urgency to make an effort to contribute to the crop estimates process.

Final area planted and crop figures of winter cereals
2016 production season
Crop Final area planted Final crop CEC area planted ¹ CEC final estimate ¹ Final crop vs
Final estimate
Ha Tons Ha Tons %
(A) (B) (C) (D) (B) ÷ (D)
Wheat 508 365 1 920 000 508 365 1 909 540 +0.02
Malting barley 88 695 355 000 88 695 354 065 +0.26
Canola 68 075 105 000 68 075 105 460 -0.44

¹  As estimated by the CEC on 28 February 2017.

The calculation of the final winter cereal crops is as follows
2016 production season
Crop Final crop Producer deliveries
reported by SAGIS ¹
(Oct 2016 - March 2017)
Estimated future deliveries
(April - Sep 2017)
Retentions on farms
for own use
Wheat 1 910 000 1 835 166 39 834 35 000 ²
Malting barley 355 000 352 017 1 483 1 500
Canola 105 000 103 979 921 100

¹  SAGIS deliveries relate to the current crop.
²  Based on a survey undertaken by the Directorate: Statistics and Economic Analysis of the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries.