Research Report 2017/2018

Annexure III: Short- and medium-term demand and usage of fishmeal and oilcake

Table 1
Fishmeal and Oilcake balance sheet   (2015/2016-2017/2018) (April-March)
  Fishmeal (ton) Oilcake (ton)
Year 2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018
Requirements / Sales 20 000 20 000 12 000 1 981 986 1 678 146 1 693 241
Available / Produced 78 000 78 000 70 000 1 299 277 1 090 900 1 277 200
Shortage / Imports -58 000 -58 000 -58 000 682 709 587 246 416 041

2017/2018 – Estimate
Source: Fishing industry

Table 2
Fishmeal and Oilcake usage   (2015/2016-2017/2018) (April-March)
  Fishmeal (ton) Oilcake (ton)
Year 2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018
AFMA Members 12 178 11 856 12 676 1 385 703 1 315 436 1 324 264
Non-AFMA Members 7 822 8 144 7 324 596 283 362 710 368 977
Total 20 000 20 000 20 000 1 981 986 1 678 146 1 693 241

Source: AFMA website
2017/2018 – Estimate
Non-AMFA members figures can also include unused stocks.

Table 3
The Main Raw Material usage by AFMA-members   (2015/2016-2017/2018) (April-March)
  Total (ton) Inclusion rate (%) Total (ton) Inclusion rate (%) Total (ton) Inclusion rate (%)
Raw Materials 2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018
Sunflower oilcake 308 633 4.58 301 513 4.30 306 519 4.76
Groundnut oilcake 573 0.03 0 0.01 0 0.00
Soya oilcake 936 283 12.78 866 555 13.03 859 964 13.35
Full fat soya 72 415 1.17 87 510 1.01 90 442 1.40
Cottonseed oilcake 8 888 0.32 10 033 0.12 10 845 0.17
Full fat cottonseed 7 845 0.16 10 852 0.11 9 709 0.15
Canola oilcake 38 109 0.37 29 160 0.53 29 315 0.46
Full fat canola 546 0.00 640 0.00 320 0.00
Copra and Palm kernel 11 568 0.36 8 720 0.16 8 550 0.13
Maize germ oilcake 843 0.02 453 0.01 0 0.00
Total oilcake 1 385 703 19.79 1 315 436 19.29 1 324 264 20.56
Total maize products 3 595 160 51.69 3 363 649 50.05 3 262 770 50.66
Total fishmeal 12 178 0.31 11 856 0.17 11 896 0.18
Feed 6 908 424   6 322 188   6 440 516  

Source: AFMA website
AFMA raw material usage April 2017 to March 2018 extrapolated from first 3 month usage.
* Note: total oilcake in Table 3 include all oilcake and not only specific oilcake items listed in Table 3.

Table 4
Fishmeal: local production and imports   (2014/2015-2017/2018) (April-March)
  Local (RSA + Namibia) Fishmeal production (ton) Imported Fishmeal (ton)
Year 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018
RSA 65 000 62 000 64 600 90 000
Namibia ¹ 13 000 13 000 13 000 0
Total 78 000 75 000 77 600 90 000 0 0 0

Source: AFMA; SA Fishmeal Marketing Company
2016/2017 – Estimate
¹ Includes Russian trawlers operating in Namibian waters.

Table 5
Oilcake: local production and imports   (2015/2016-2017/2018)
Local Oilcake production (ton) Imported Oilcake (ton)
Year 2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018
(Projected)		 2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018
(Projected)
Oilcake:
Groundnuts oilcake 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sunflower oilcake 280 368 264 279 332 000 67 887 0 0
Soya cake 750 898 647 754 695 200 587 692 552 246 404 800
  – Full fat 121 763 94 769 140 000
Cotton cake 59 468 9 000 1 946
  – Full fat 19 098 19 098 50 000 25 898 11 000 295
Other:
Canola 51 150 51 000 50 000 0 0 0
Lupins 6 000 14 000 10 000 0 0 0
Copra and Palm kernel 24 713 15 000 9 000
Total 1 229 277 1 090 900 1 277 200 765 658 587 246 416 041

Source: SAGIS
2017/2018 – Estimate
The projected local production figures for soya and cotton reflect full fat and oilcake.
South African Supply and Demand Estimate Report NAMC January 2018.