Statistics & Estimates / Crop Estimates / 26 October 2017

Intentions to plant summer crops 2018 Voorneme om somergewasse te plant
Area planted and third production forecast for winter cereals / Oppervlakte en derde produksieskatting vir wintergewasse

Summer crops / Somergewasse
Intentions to plant  2018  Voorneme om te plant
Crop / Gewas Intentions
Voorneme
Area planted
Oppervlakte beplant
Final estimate
Finale skatting
Change
Verandering
2018 2017 2017
As mid October
Soos middel Oktober
2017
As on 28 September
Soos op 28 September
2017
Ha Ha Tons %
(A) (B) (C) (A) ÷ (B)
Commercial / Kommersieël
  White maize / Witmielies 1 404 100 1 643 100 9 892 750 -14.5
  Yellow maize / Geelmielies 1 066 300 985 500 6 851 250 +8.2
Maize / Mielies 2 470 400 2 628 600 16 744 000 -6.0
Sunflower seed / Sonneblomsaad 665 500 635 750 874 595 +4.7
Soybeans / Sojabone 720 000 573 950 1 316 370 +25.4
Groundnuts / Grondbone 65 500 56 000 92 050 +17.0
Sorghum 43 700 42 350 151 335 +3.2
Dry beans / Droëbone 60 000 45 050 68 525 +33.2
Total maize RSA / Totaal mielies RSA 4 025 100 3 981 700 19 246 875 +1.1

Note:  Estimate is for calendar year, e.g. production season 2017/18 = 2018
Nota:  Skatting is vir kalenderjaar, bv. produksie-seisoen 2017/18 = 2018

Total maize / Totale mielies
Area planted   2008-2017   Oppervlakte beplant

Graph showing total area planted to maize from 2008 to 2017

White maize / Witmielies
Area planted   2008-2017   Oppervlakte beplant

Graph showing area planted to white maize from 2008 to 2017

Yellow maize / Geelmielies
Area planted   2008-2017   Oppervlakte beplant

Graph showing area planted to yellow maize from 2008 to 2017
White and Yellow maize / Wit- en Geelmielies
Intentions to plant  2017  Voorneme om te plant
Intentions (area planted) / Voorneme (oppervlakte beplant) Area planted / Oppervlakte beplant Final estimate ¹ / Finale skatting ¹
2018 2017 2017
White
Wit
Yellow
Geel
Total
Totaal
White
Wit
Yellow
Geel
Total
Totaal
White
Wit
Yellow
Geel
Total
Totaal
Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Tons Tons Tons
Western Cape / Wes-Kaap
0 1 500 1 500 200 2 000 2 200 2 000 20 000 22 000
Northern Cape / Noord-Kaap
2 700 42 500 45 200 3 500 45 000 48 500 46 200 657 000 703 200
Free State / Vrystaat
685 000 410 000 1 095 000 805 000 355 000 1 160 000 5 111 750 2 218 750 7 330 500
Eastern Cape / Oos-Kaap
4 400 9 300 13 700 4 400 9 500 13 900 30 800 66 500 97 300
KwaZulu-Natal
37 000 45 000 82 000 50 000 50 000 100 000 350 000 385 000 735 000
Mpumalanga
137 000 348 000 485 000 160 000 330 000 490 000 1 088 000 2 343 000 3 431 000
Limpopo
30 000 26 000 56 000 40 000 24 000 64 000 300 000 192 000 492 000
Gauteng
48 000 64 000 112 000 60 000 60 000 120 000 390 000 408 000 798 000
North West / Noordwes
460 000 120 000 580 000 520 000 110 000 630 000 2 574 000 561 000 3 135 000
Total / Totaal
1 404 100 1 066 300 2 470 400 1 643 100 985 500 2 628 600 9 892 750 6 851 250 16 744 000

¹  28 September 2017

Sunflower seed / Sonneblomsaad
Intentions to plant  2018  Voorneme om te plant
Province / Provinsie Area planted
Oppervlakte beplant
Area planted
Oppervlakte beplant
Final estimate ¹
Finale skatting ¹
Ha Ha Tons
2018 2017 2017
Western Cape / Wes-Kaap - - -
Northern Cape / Noord-Kaap 100 250 375
Free State / Vrystaat 350 000 330 000 478 500
Eastern Cape / Oos-Kaap - - -
KwaZulu-Natal - 300 300
Mpumalanga 2 200 2 200 2 420
Limpopo 88 000 90 000 85 500
Gauteng 3 200 3 000 3 000
North West / Noordwes 222 000 210 000 304 500
Total / Totaal 665 500 635 750 874 595

¹  28 September 2017

Soybeans / Sojabone
Intentions to plant  2018  Voorneme om te plant
Province / Provinsie Area planted
Oppervlakte beplant
Area planted
Oppervlakte beplant
Final estimate ¹
Finale skatting ¹
Ha Ha Tons
2018 2017 2017
Western Cape / Wes-Kaap 500 700 1 050
Northern Cape / Noord-Kaap 3 500 3 000 10 500
Free State / Vrystaat 320 000 240 000 504 000
Eastern Cape / Oos-Kaap 2 000 1 850 2 775
KwaZulu-Natal 34 500 30 500 89 975
Mpumalanga 276 500 241 000 554 300
Limpopo 15 000 8 500 29 750
Gauteng 33 000 25 400 71 120
North West / Noordwes 35 000 23 000 52 900
Total / Totaal 720 000 573 950 1 316 370

¹  28 September 2017

Summer crops / Somergewasse
Intentions to plant summer crops (2018)  October 26 Oktober 2017  Voorneme om somergewasse te plant (2018)

Producers intentions to plant summer crops are based on the results of a non-probability survey conducted by the Directorate: Statistics and Economic Analysis of the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries and reflects the position as at the middle of October 2017.

According to the results of the survey, commercial producers intend to plant 2,470 million ha of maize for 2018, which is 6,0% or 158 200 ha less than the 2,629 million ha planted last season.

The figures show that producers intend to plant 1,404 million ha to white maize, which is 239 000 ha (14,5%) less than in the previous season. In the case of yellow maize, the expected plantings are 1,066 million ha, which is 80 800 ha (8,2%) more than in the previous season.

Producers indicated that less maize, especially white maize, will be planted for the 2018 season, mainly because of farmers switching to other crops such as oilseeds and yellow maize, due to price competitiveness.

In the case of sunflower seed, the expected area planted is estimated at 665 500 ha, which is 4,7% or 29 750 ha more than the 635 750 ha planted last season. The increase in the expected area planted to sunflower seed is mainly because of increases in the Free State and North West provinces, due to indications that the expected area planted with white maize will decrease more in the afore-mentioned provinces than in the other provinces.

The intended plantings of soybeans shows an increase of 25,4% or 146 050 ha compared to the previous season – from 573 950 ha to 720 000 ha.

The expected plantings of groundnuts will also increase by 17,0% or 9 500 ha, from 56 000 ha to 65 500 ha.

The intended plantings of sorghum is expected to increase slightly by 3,2% or 1 350 ha to 43 700 ha, compared to the previous season.

The expected plantings of dry beans is estimated at 60 000 ha, which is 33,2% or 14 950 ha more than in the previous season.


Please note that the preliminary area planted estimate for summer grains for 2018 will be released on 30 January 2018.

Information is available on the internet at:
www.daff.gov.za/daffweb3/Home/Crop-Estimates or:
www.sagis.org.za, as from 14:30 on the date of the relevant meeting of the Crop Estimates Committee.

Produsente se voorneme om somergewasse te plant is gebaseer op die resultate van 'n nie-ewekansige opname onderneem deur die Direktoraat: Statistiek en Ekonomiese Analise van die Departement van Landbou, Bosbou en Visserye en weerspieël die situasie teen die middel van Oktober 2017.

Volgens die resultate van die opname, is kommersiele produsente van voorneme om 2,470 miljoen ha mielies vir 2018 te plant, wat 6,0% of 158 200 ha minder is as die 2,629 miljoen ha aangeplant verlede seisoen.

Die syfers toon dat produsente van voorneme is om 1,404 miljoen ha witmielies aan te plant, wat 239 000 ha (14,5%) minder is as in die vorige seisoen. In die geval met geelmielies is die verwagte aanplantings 1,066 miljoen ha, wat 80 800 ha (8,2%) meer is as in die vorige seisoen.

Produsente het aangedui dat minder mielies, veral witmielies, aangeplant sal word vir die 2018-seisoen, hoofsaaklik as gevolg van die feit dat boere oorskakel na ander gewasse soos oliesade en geelmielies, weens prysmededingendheid.

In die geval van sonneblomsaad word die verwagte aanplantings beraam op 665 500 ha, wat 4,7% of 29 750 ha meer is as die 635 750 ha aangeplant verlede seisoen. Die toename in die verwagte oppervlakte beplant met sonneblomsaad, is hoofsaaklik as gevolg van toenames in die Vrystaat en Noordwes provinsies, weens aanduidings dat die verwagte oppervlakte beplant met witmieliles in die genoemde provinsies meer gaan afneem as in die ander provinsies.

Die voorgenome sojaboon-aanplantings toon 'n toename van 25,4% of 146 050 ha, in vergelyking met die vorige seisoen – vanaf 573 950 ha tot 720 000 ha.

Die verwagte aanplantings van grondbone gaan ook toeneem met 17,0% of 9 500 ha, van 56 000 ha tot 65 500 ha.

Die voorgenome aanplantings van sorghum sal na verwagting effens toeneem met 3,2% of 1 350 ha na 43 700 ha, in vergelyking met die vorige seisoen.

Die verwagte aanplantings van droëbone word beraam op 60 000 ha, wat 33,2% of 14 950 ha meer is as in die vorige seisoen.


Neem asseblief kennis dat die voorlopige oppervlakteskatting vir somergewasse vir 2018 op 30 Januarie 2018 vrygestel sal word.

Inligting is beskikbaar op die internet by:
www.daff.gov.za/daffweb3/Home/Crop-Estimates of by:
www.sagis.org.za, vanaf 14:30 op die dag van die toepaslike vergadering van die Oesskattingskomitee.


Winter cereals / Wintergewasse
Area planted and third production forecast  2017  Oppervlakte- en derde produksieskatting
Crop / Gewas Area planted
Oppervlakte beplant
Third forecast
Derde skatting
Second forecast
Tweede skatting
Area planted
Oppervlakte beplant
Final crop
Finale oes
Change
Verandering
2017 2017 2017 2016 2016
Ha Tons Tons Ha Tons %
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (B) ÷ (C)
Commercial / Kommersieël
  Wheat / Koring 491 600 1 655 250 1 716 650 508 365 1 910 000 -3.58
  Malting barley / Moutgars 91 380 281 059 268 309 88 695 355 000 +4.75
Canola 84 000 100 800 100 800 68 075 105 000 -

Note:  Estimate is for calendar year, e.g. production season 2017/18 = 2017
Nota:  Skatting is vir kalenderjaar, bv. produksie-seisoen 2017/18 = 2017

Wheat / Koring
Area planted and third production forecast  2017  Oppervlakte- en derde produksieskatting
Province / Provinsie Area planted
Oppervlakte beplant
Third forecast
Derde skatting
Second forecast
Tweede skatting
Area planted
Oppervlakte beplant
Final crop
Finale oes
2017 2017 2017 2016 2016
Ha Tons Tons Ha Tons
Western Cape / Wes-Kaap 326 000 749 800 815 000 323 000 1 098 200
Northern Cape / Noord-Kaap 38 000 304 000 300 200 35 000 266 000
Free State / Vrystaat 80 000 320 000 320 000 110 000 308 460
Eastern Cape / Oos-Kaap 1 900 9 500 9 500 2 200 11 000
KwaZulu-Natal 7 500 42 750 42 750 6 500 37 050
Mpumalanga 4 000 24 000 24 000 2 300 13 800
Limpopo 20 000 120 000 120 000 17 000 103 700
Gauteng 700 4 200 4 200 365 2 190
North West / Noordwes 13 500 81 000 81 000 12 000 69 600
Total / Totaal 491 600 1 655 250 1 716 650 508 365 1 910 000

RSA
Area and production   2010-2017   Oppervlakte en produksie

Graph showing area and production of wheat from 2010 to 2017 in South Africa

Western Cape / Wes-Kaap
Area and production   2010-2017   Oppervlakte en produksie

Graph depicting production of wheat in Western Cape from 2010 to 2017

Free State / Vrystaat
Area and production   2010-2017   Oppervlakte en produksie

Graph showing area and production of wheat from 2010 to 2017 in the Free State

Winter crops / Wintergewasse
Area estimate and third production forecast of winter crops  October 28 Oktober 2017  Oppervlakteskatting en derde produksieskatting van wintergewasse

Winter cereal crops

The expected commercial production of wheat is 1,655 million tons, which is 3,58% or 61 400 tons less than the previous forecast of 1,717 million tons, mainly because the main wheat producing province, namely the Western Cape, experiences dryness. The area estimate for wheat is 491 600 ha, whilst the expected yield is 3,37 t/ha.

The largest decline in production occurred in the Western Cape, namely 8,0% or 65 200 tons, followed by the Northern Cape by 1,3% or 3 800 tons. Thus, the expected production in the Western Cape is 749 800 tons (45%), in the Free State 320 000 tons (19%) and in the Northern Cape 304 000 tons (18%).

Other crops: The production forecast for malting barley is 281 059 tons, which is 4,75% or 12 750 tons more than the previous forecast of 268 309 tons. The area planted with malting barley is 91 380 ha and the expected yield is 3,08 t/ha.

The expected canola crop remained unchanged at 100 800 tons. The area estimate for canola is 84 000 ha, with an expected yield of 1,20 t/ha.


Please note that the fourth production forecast for winter cereals for 2017 will be released on 28 November 2017.

Information is available on the internet at:
www.daff.gov.za/daffweb3/Home/Crop-Estimates or:
www.sagis.org.za, as from 14:30 on the date of the relevant meeting of the Crop Estimates Committee.

Wintergewasse

Die verwagte kommersiële produksie vir koring is 1,655 miljoen ton, wat 3,58% of 61 400 ton minder is as die vorige skatting van 1,717 miljoen ton, hoofsaaklik omdat die grootste koring­produserende provinsie, naamlik die Wes-Kaap, droogte ervaar. Die oppervlakteskatting vir koring is 491 600 ha, terwyl die verwagte opbrengs 3,37 t/ha is.

Die grootste afname in produksie het in die Wes-Kaap plaas­gevind, naamlik 8,0% of 65 200 ton, gevolg deur die Noord-Kaap met 1,3% of 3 800 ton. Dus is die verwagte produksie in die Wes-Kaap 749 800 ton (45%), in die Vrystaat 320 000 ton (19%) en in die Noord-Kaap 304 000 ton (18%).

Ander gewasse: Die produksieskatting vir moutgars is 281 059 ton, wat 4,75% of 12 750 ton meer is as die vorige skatting van 268 309 ton. Die oppervlakte beplant met moutgars is 91 380 ha, terwyl die verwagte opbrengs 3,08 t/ha beloop.

Die verwagte canola-oes is onveranderd gelaat op 100 800 ton. Die oppervlakteskatting vir canola is 84 000 ha, met 'n verwagte opbrengs van 1,20 t/ha.


Neem asseblief kennis dat die vierde produksieskatting vir winter­gewasse vir 2017 op 28 November 2017 vrygestel sal word.

Inligting is beskikbaar op die internet by:
www.daff.gov.za/daffweb3/Home/Crop-Estimates of by:
www.sagis.org.za, vanaf 14:30 op die dag van die toepaslike vergadering van die Oesskattingskomitee.

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