Statistics & Estimates / Crop Estimates / 27 July 2016

Area planted and seventh production forecast for summer crops
Preliminary area planted estimate for winter cereals

Summer crops / Somergewasse
Area planted and seventh production forecast  2016  Oppervlakte- en sewende produksieskatting
Crop / Gewas Area planted
Oppervlakte beplant
Seventh forecast
Sewende skatting
Sixth forecast
Sesde skatting
Area planted
Oppervlakte beplant
Final crop
Finale oes
Change
Verandering
2016 2016 2016 2015 2015
Ha Tons Tons Ha Tons %
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (B) ÷ (C)
Commercial / Kommersieël
  White Maize / Witmielies 1 014 750 3 097 225 3 097 225 1 448 050 4 735 000 -
  Yellow Maize / Geelmielies 932 000 4 164 700 4 063 700 1 204 800 5 220 000 +2.49
Total Maize / Totale Mielies 1 946 750 7 261 925 7 160 925 2 652 850 9 955 000 +1.41
Sunflower Seed / Sonneblomsaad 718 500 742 750 742 750 576 000 663 000 -
Soybeans / Sojabone 502 800 750 250 728 650 687 300 1 070 000 +2.96
Groundnuts / Grondbone 22 600 29 285 31 600 58 000 62 300 -7.33
Sorghum 48 500 88 500 88 500 70 500 120 500 -
Dry Beans / Droëbone 34 400 35 745 38 095 64 000 73 390 -6.17
Total / Totaal 3 273 550 8 908 455 8 790 520 4 108 650 11 944 190 +1.34
NOTE:  Estimate is for calendar year, e.g. production season 2015/16 = 2016
NOTA:  Skatting is vir kalenderjaar, bv. produksie-seisoen 2015/16 = 2016

Total Maize / Totale Mielies
Production   2005-2016   Produksie

Graph of total maize production from 2005 to 2016 in South Africa

Sunflower Seed / Sonneblomsaad
Production   2005-2016   Produksie

Graph of sunflower seed production from 2005 to 2016 in South Africa

Soybeans / Sojabone
Production   2005-2016   Produksie

Graph of soybean production from 2005 to 2016 in South Africa
White and Yellow maize / Wit- en Geelmielies
Area planted and seventh production forecast  2016  Oppervlakte- en sewende produksieskatting
Area planted / Oppervlakte beplant Seventh forecast / Sewende skatting Area planted / Oppervlakte beplant Final crop / Finale oes
2016 2016 2015 2015
White
Wit
Yellow
Geel
Total
Totaal
White
Wit
Yellow
Geel
Total
Totaal
White
Wit
Yellow
Geel
Total
Totaal
White
Wit
Yellow
Geel
Total
Totaal
Ha Ha Ha Tons Tons Tons Ha Ha Ha Tons Tons Tons
Western Cape / Wes-Kaap
500 4 000 4 500 5 000 40 000 45 000 450 3 800 4 250 4 050 34 200 38 250
Northern Cape / Noord-Kaap
3 750 50 000 53 750 34 875 670 000 704 875 3 500 46 000 49 500 35 000 644 000 679 000
Free State / Vrystaat
390 000 310 000 700 000 1 072 500 992 000 2 049 000 710 000 510 000 1 220 000 2 236 000 1 708 500 3 944 500
Eastern Cape / Oos-Kaap
2 000 12 000 14 000 9 000 60 000 69 000 2 600 14 000 16 600 15 600 84 000 99 600
KwaZulu-Natal
38 000 48 000 86 000 193 800 288 000 481 800 40 000 45 000 85 000 224 000 283 500 507 500
Mpumalanga
160 000 330 000 490 000 672 000 1 501 500 2 173 500 154 000 315 000 469 000 824 000 1 605 300 2 429 300
Limpopo
31 500 22 000 53 500 173 250 129 800 303 050 28 500 21 000 49 500 156 750 124 000 280 750
Gauteng
49 000 56 000 105 000 205 800 218 400 424 200 44 000 65 000 109 000 193 600 292 500 486 100
North West / Noordwes
340 000 100 000 440 000 731 000 265 000 996 000 465 000 185 000 650 000 1 046 000 444 000 1 490 000
Total / Totaal
1 014 750 932 000 1 946 750 3 097 225 4 164 700 7 261 925 1 448 050 1 204 800 2 652 850 4 735 000 5 220 000 9 955 000
Sunflower seed / Sonneblomsaad
Area planted and seventh production forecast  2016  Oppervlakte- en sewende produksieskatting
Province / Provinsie Area planted
Oppervlakte beplant
Seventh forecast
Sewende skatting
Area planted
Oppervlakte beplant
Final crop
Finale oes
Ha Tons Ha Tons
2016 2016 2015 2015
Western Cape / Wes-Kaap - - - -
Northern Cape / Noord-Kaap 500 600 500 500
Free State / Vrystaat 400 000 440 000 285 000 370 500
Eastern Cape / Oos-Kaap - - - -
KwaZulu-Natal - - - -
Mpumalanga 4 000 4 400 2 500 3 300
Limpopo 65 000 48 750 82 000 61 500
Gauteng 4 000 4 000 6 000 7 200
North West / Noord-Wes 245 000 245 000 200 000 220 000
Total / Totaal 718 500 742 750 576 000 663 000
Soybeans / Sojabone
Area planted and seventh production forecast  2016  Oppervlakte- en sewende produksieskatting
Province / Provinsie Area planted
Oppervlakte beplant
Seventh forecast
Sewende skatting
Area planted
Oppervlakte beplant
Final crop
Finale oes
Ha Tons Ha Tons
2016 2016 2015 2015
Western Cape / Wes-Kaap 800 1 200 800 1 600
Northern Cape / Noord-Kaap 4 000 13 600 4 000 14 000
Free State / Vrystaat 174 000 156 600 305 000 366 000
Eastern Cape / Oos-Kaap 1 500 2 100 1 500 2 100
KwaZulu-Natal 28 000 65 800 42 000 102 900
Mpumalanga 240 000 408 000 245 000 389 900
Limpopo 16 000 38 400 24 000 72 000
Gauteng 23 000 50 600 30 000 69 000
North West / Noord-Wes 15 500 13 950 35 000 52 500
Total / Totaal 502 800 750 250 687 300 1 070 000
Groundnuts / Grondbone
Area planted and seventh production forecast  2016  Oppervlakte- en sewende produksieskatting
Province / Provinsie Area planted
Oppervlakte beplant
Seventh forecast
Sewende skatting
Area planted
Oppervlakte beplant
Final crop
Finale oes
Ha Tons Ha Tons
2016 2016 2015 2015
Western Cape / Wes-Kaap - - - -
Northern Cape / Noord-Kaap 5 000 15 500 7 100 22 700
Free State / Vrystaat 6 500 5 850 22 500 21 800
Eastern Cape / Oos-Kaap - - - -
KwaZulu-Natal - - 100 100
Mpumalanga - - - -
Limpopo 1 600 1 760 2 500 3 250
Gauteng - - - -
North West / Noord-Wes 9 500 6 175 25 800 14 450
Total / Totaal 22 600 29 285 58 000 62 300
Sorghum
Area planted and seventh production forecast  2016  Oppervlakte- en sewende produksieskatting
Province / Provinsie Area planted
Oppervlakte beplant
Seventh forecast
Sewende skatting
Area planted
Oppervlakte beplant
Final crop
Finale oes
Ha Tons Ha Tons
2016 2016 2015 2015
Western Cape / Wes-Kaap - - - -
Northern Cape / Noord-Kaap - - - -
Free State / Vrystaat 28 000 37 800 36 000 45 000
Eastern Cape / Oos-Kaap - - - -
KwaZulu-Natal 500 2 000 500 2 200
Mpumalanga 10 000 35 000 11 000 48 000
Limpopo 7 000 9 800 16 000 17 600
Gauteng - - 1 000 2 600
North West / Noord-Wes 3 000 3 900 6 000 5 100
Total / Totaal 48 500 88 500 70 500 120 500
Dry beans / Droëbone
Area planted and seventh production forecast  2016  Oppervlakte- en sewende produksieskatting
Province / Provinsie Area planted
Oppervlakte beplant
Seventh forecast
Sewende skatting
Area planted
Oppervlakte beplant
Final crop
Finale oes
Ha Tons Ha Tons
2016 2016 2015 2015
Western Cape / Wes-Kaap 100 150 300 390
Northern Cape / Noord-Kaap 350 630 900 2 160
Free State / Vrystaat 17 000 17 000 28 000 22 400
Eastern Cape / Oos-Kaap 250 375 800 1 040
KwaZulu-Natal 2 200 2 640 6 500 7 800
Mpumalanga 6 000 6 000 9 000 11 250
Limpopo 3 000 3 750 7 000 16 800
Gauteng 2 500 2 500 4 000 4 800
North West / Noord-Wes 3 000 2 700 7 500 6 750
Total / Totaal 34 400 35 745 64 000 73 390

CONFIDENTIALITY ISSUES that CEC members are committed to adhere to on the day of the meeting

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  • Individual information received for crop estimate purposes is treated strictly confidential, and is not divulged for any other purposes.

Summer crops / Somergewasse
Area planted and seventh production forecast  27 July/Julie 2016  Oppervlakte- en sewende produksieskatting

Summer field crops – 2016

Commercial maize: The size of the expected commercial maize crop has been set at 7,262 million tons, which is 1,41% or 101 000 tons more than the previous forecast of 7,161 million tons. The area estimate for maize remained unchanged at 1,947 million ha, while the expected yield is 3,73 t/ha.

The production forecast of white maize remained unchanged at 3,097 million tons, while the expected yield is 3,05 t/ha. In the case of yellow maize the production forecast is 4,165 million tons, which is 2,49% or 101 000 tons more than the 4,064 million tons of the previous forecast. The yield for yellow maize is 4,47 t/ha.

Other summer crops:

Sunflower seed: The production forecast for sunflower seed remained unchanged at 742 750 tons, with an area estimate of 718 500 ha. The expected yield is 1,03 t/ha.

Other crops: The production forecast for soybeans is 750 250 tons, which is 2,96% or 21 600 tons more than the 728 650 tons of the previous forecast. The estimated area planted to soybeans is 502 800 ha, with an expected yield of 1,49 t/ha.

The expected groundnut crop is 29 285 tons, which is 7,33% or 2 315 tons less than the 31 600 tons of the last forecast. For groundnuts, the area estimate is 22 600 ha, with an expected yield of 1,30 t/ha.

The production forecast for sorghum remained unchanged at 88 500 tons. The area estimate for sorghum is 48 500 ha and the expected yield is 1,82 t/ha.

In the case of dry beans, the production forecast is 35 745 tons, which is 6,17% or 2 350 tons less than the 38 095 tons of the previous forecast. The area estimate of dry beans is 34 400 ha, with an expected yield of 1,04 t/ha.


Please note that the eighth production forecast for summer field crops for 2016 will be released on 25 August 2016.

Information is available on the internet at:
www.daff.gov.za/daffweb3/Home/Crop-Estimates or:
www.sagis.org.za, as from 14:30 on the date of the relevant meeting of the Crop Estimates Committee.

Somergewasse – 2016

Kommersiële mielies: Die grootte van die verwagte kommersiële mielie-oes is op 7,262 miljoen ton gestel, wat 1,41% of 101 000 ton meer is as die vorige skatting van 7,161 miljoen ton. Die skatting van die oppervlakte onder mielies is onveranderd gelaat op 1,947 miljoen ha, terwyl die verwagte opbrengs 3,73 t/ha is.

Die produksieskatting van witmielies is onveranderd gelaat op 3,097 miljoen ton, terwyl die verwagte opbrengs 3,05 t/ha is. In die geval van geelmielies is die produksieskatting 4,165 miljoen ton, wat 2,49% of 101 000 ton meer is as die 4,064 miljoen ton van die vorige skatting. Die opbrengs van geelmielies is 4,47 t/ha.

Ander somergewasse:

Sonneblomsaad: Die produksieskatting vir sonneblomsaad is onveranderd gelaat op 742 750 ton, met 'n oppervlakteskatting van 718 500 ha, terwyl die verwagte opbrengs 1,03 t/ha is.

Ander gewasse: Die produksieskatting van sojabone is 750 250 ton, wat 2,96% of 21 600 ton meer is as die 728 650 ton van die vorige skatting. Die geskatte oppervlakte beplant met sojabone is 502 800 ha, met 'n verwagte opbrengs van 1,49 t/ha.

Die verwagte grondbone-oes is 29 285 ton, wat 7,33% of 2 315 ton minder is as die 31 600 ton van die vorige skatting. Vir grondbone is die oppervlakteskatting 22 600 ha, terwyl die verwagte opbrengs 1,30 t/ha is.

Die produksieskatting van sorghum is onveranderd gelaat op 88 500 ton. Die oppervlakteskatting vir sorghum is 48 500 ha, en die verwagte opbrengs is 1,82 t/ha.

In die geval van droëbone is die produksieskatting 35 745 ton, wat 6,17% of 2 350 ton minder is as die 38 095 ton van die vorige skatting. Die oppervlakte beplant met droëbone is 34 400 ha, en die verwagte opbrengs is 1,04 t/ha.


Neem asseblief kennis dat die agtste produksieskatting vir somergewasse vir 2016, op 25 Augustus 2016 vrygestel sal word.

Inligting is beskikbaar op die internet by:
www.daff.gov.za/daffweb3/Home/Crop-Estimates of by:
www.sagis.org.za, vanaf 14:30 op die dag van die toepaslike vergadering van die Oesskattingskomitee.

Non-commercial maize / Nie-kommersiële mielies
Area planted and production estimate  2016  Oppervlakte en produksieskatting
Crop / Gewas Area planted
Oppervlakte beplant
Production
Produksie
Area planted
Oppervlakte beplant
Final crop
Finale oes
Change
Verandering
2016 2016 2015 2015
Ha Tons Ha Tons %
(A) (B) (C) (D) (B) ÷ (D)
Commercial / Kommersieël
  White maize / Witmielies 191 225 286 175 278 000 442 200 -35.28
  Yellow maize / Geelmielies 74 905 149 565 117 200 231 600 -35.42
Maize / Mielies 266 130 435 740 395 200 673 800 -35.33

The area planted to maize in the non-commercial agricultural sector is estimated at 266 130 ha, which represents a decrease of 32,7% compared to the 395 200 ha of the previous season. The expected maize crop for this sector is 435 740 tons, which is 35,3% less than the 673 800 tons of last season. It is important to note that about 60% of the maize produced in the non-commercial sector, is planted in the Eastern Cape.

Die oppervlakte beplant met mielies in die nie-kommersiële landbou-sektor word geskat op 266 130 ha, wat 'n afname van 32,7% verteenwoordig in vergelyking met die 395 200 ha van die vorige seisoen. Die verwagte mielie-oes van dié sektor is 435 740 ton, wat 35,3% minder is as die 673 800 ton van die vorige seisoen. Dit is belangrik om daarop te let dat ongeveer 60% van die mielies wat geproduseer word in die nie-kommersiële sektor, in die Oos-Kaap geplant word.

Non-commercial maize / Nie-kommersiële mielies
Area   2000-2016   Oppervlakte

Graph showing area of non-commercial maize from 2000 to 2016 in South Africa

Non-commercial maize / Nie-kommersiële mielies
Production   2000-2016   Produksie

Graph showing non-commercial maize production in South Africa from 2000 to 2016

Winter cereals / Wintergewasse
Preliminary area planted estimate  2016  Voorlopige oppervlakteskatting
Crop / Gewas Area planted
Oppervlakte beplant
Intentions ¹
Voorneme ¹
Area planted
Oppervlakte beplant
Final crop
Finale oes
Change
Verandering
2016 Mid April 2016 2015 2015
Ha Ha Ha Tons %
(A) (B) (C) (D) (A) ÷ (C)
Commercial / Kommersieël
  Wheat / Koring 486 350 481 850 482 150 1 440 000 +0.87
  Malting barley / Moutgars 88 400 92 000 93 730 332 000 -5.69
Canola 70 500 71 050 78 050 93 000 -9.67
Total / Totaal 645 250 644 900 653 930 1 865 000 -1.33

¹ Intentions based on conditions at the middle of April 2016.
¹ Voorneme gebaseer op toestande soos teen middel April 2016.

Wheat / Koring
Preliminary area planted estimate  2016  Voorlopige oppervlakteskatting
Province / Provinsie Area planted
Oppervlakte beplant
Intentions ¹
Voorneme ¹
Area planted
Oppervlakte beplant
Final crop
Finale oes
2016 Mid April 2016 2015 2015
Ha Ha Ha Tons
Western Cape / Wes-Kaap 320 000 320 000 310 000 697 500
Northern Cape / Noord-Kaap 35 500 34 000 36 000 259 200
Free State / Vrystaat 90 000 80 000 80 000 176 500
Eastern Cape / Oos-Kaap 2 200 2 600 3 100 14 880
KwaZulu-Natal 7 000 7 000 7 300 41 000
Mpumalanga 2 500 3 000 3 500 19 500
Limpopo 15 000 22 000 27 000 144 420
Gauteng 150 250 250 1 500
North West / Noordwes 14 000 13 000 15 000 85 500
Total / Totaal 486 350 481 850 482 150 1 440 000

¹ Intentions based on conditions at the middle of April 2016.
¹ Voorneme gebaseer op toestande soos teen middel April 2016.

Wheat / Koring
Area   2005-2016   Oppervlakte

Graph showing area of wheat from 2005 to 2016 in South Africa

Malting Barley / Moutgars
Area   2005-2016   Oppervlakte

Graph showing area of malting barley from 2005 to 2016 in South Africa

Canola
Area   2005-2016   Oppervlakte

Graph showing canola area from 2005 to 2016 in South Africa

Winter cereals / Wintergewasse
Preliminary area estimate  July 27 Julie 2016  Voorlopige oppervlakteskatting

Winter cereal crops – 2016

The preliminary area estimate is based on the results of a non-probability survey conducted by the Directorate: Statistics and Economic Analysis and reflects the position as at the middle of July 2016, as well as inputs from the PDA representatives. Please note that the information from the Producer Independent Crop Estimation System (PICES), as conducted by the National Crop Statistics Consortium (NCSC), for the Western Cape will be available in August 2016 and for the Free State in September 2016.

Wheat

The preliminary area estimate for wheat is 486 350 ha, which is 0,87% or 4 200 ha more than the 482 150 ha planted for the previous season. On record, this is the third smallest area planted to wheat. The smallest area planted to wheat was during 2014, when 476 570 ha was planted, whereas the second smallest area was planted during 2015, namely 482 150 ha.

An estimated 320 000 ha is planted in the Western Cape, which is 10 000 ha more than the 310 000 ha planted for the previous season. In the Free State, 90 000 ha is planted, which is also 10 000 ha more than the 80 000 ha planted for the previous season. The area planted in the Northern Cape is 35 500 ha, which is 500 ha less than the 36 000 ha for the previous season.

Other crops: The preliminary area estimate for malting barley is 88 400 ha, which is 5,69% or 5 330 ha less than the 93 730 ha of last season. The area planted to canola is 70 500 ha, which is 9,67% or 7 550 ha less than the 78 050 ha planted for the previous season.


Please note that the revised area planted estimate and first production forecast for winter cereals for 2016 will be released on 25 August 2016.

Information is available on the internet at:
www.daff.gov.za/daffweb3/Home/Crop-Estimates or:
www.sagis.org.za, as from 14:30 on the date of the relevant meeting of the Crop Estimates Committee.

Wintergewasse – 2016

Die voorlopige oppervlakteskatting is gebaseer op die resultate van 'n nie-ewekansige opname onderneem deur die Direktoraat: Statistiek en Ekonomiese Analise en weerspieël die situasie teen die middel van Julie 2016, sowel as insette van die PDL verteenwoordigers. Let wel, inligting van die Produsente Onafhanklike Oesskattingstelsel ("PICES"), soos gedoen deur die Nasionale Oesskattingskonsortium, sal vir die Wes-Kaap in Augustus 2016 gerapporteer word en vir die Vrystaat in September 2016.

Koring

Die voorlopige skatting van die oppervlakte onder koring beloop 486 350 ha, wat 0,87% of 4 200 ha meer is as die 482 150 ha wat verlede seisoen aangeplant is. Volgens rekords, is dit die derde kleinste oppervlakte beplant met koring. Die kleinste oppervlakte beplant met koring was gedurende 2014, toe 476 570 ha geplant was, terwyl die tweede kleinste oppervlakte gedurende 2015 geplant was, naamlik 482 150 ha.

Die beraamde oppervlakte beplant in die Wes-Kaap is 320 000 ha, wat 10 000 ha meer is as die 310 000 ha wat verlede seisoen aangeplant is. Vir die Vrystaat is die aanplantings 90 000 ha, wat ook 10 000 ha meer is as die 80 000 ha wat verlede seisoen aangeplant is. Die oppervlakte beplant in die Noord-Kaap is 35 500 ha, wat 500 ha minder is as die 36 000 ha wat die vorige seisoen aangeplant is.

Ander gewasse: Die voorlopige oppervlakskatting vir moutgars is 88 400 ha, wat 5,69% of 5 330 ha minder is as die 93 730 ha van verlede seisoen. Die oppervlakte onder canola is 70 500 ha, wat 9,67% of 7 550 ha minder is as die 78 050 ha wat verlede seisoen aangeplant is.


Neem asseblief kennis dat die hersiene oppervlakte beplant en eerste produksieskatting vir wintergewasse vir 2016 op 25 Augustus 2016 vrygestel sal word.

Inligting is beskikbaar op die internet by:
www.daff.gov.za/daffweb3/Home/Crop-Estimates of by:
www.sagis.org.za, vanaf 14:30 op die dag van die toepaslike vergadering van die Oesskattingskomitee.