2019/2020 Income and Cost Budgets

Northern Free State – dryland

Income and cost budgets for maize, soybeans, sunflower, groundnuts and grain sorghum for Western and Northern Free State
Area Western and Northern Free State
Crop Maize (higher potential) Maize (normal potential) Soybeans Sunflower Groundnuts Grain sorghum
Production system Dryland

1. Income
Yield: deterministic Ton/ha 5.50 4.50 1.75 1.75 1.50 3.00
SAFEX simulated price / producer price: 2020 R/ton 2 624 2 624 5 235 5 258 8 875 2 942
Total deductions R/ton 362 305 141 377 – 80
– Transport differential R/ton 293 236 – 253 – –
– Grade differential R/ton – – – – – 17
– Marketing and handling R/ton 69 69 141 124 – 63
Price premiums R/ton – – – – – –
Net farm gate price R/ton 2 262 2 319 5 094 4 881 8 875 2 862
Gross income R/ha R12 440 R10 435 R8 914 R8 541 R13 313 R8 587

2. Variable expenditures
Contracting R/ha – – – – – –
Crop insurance R/ha 348 115 820 333 160 275
Fertilizer R/ha 2 571 2 243 854 1 278 1 204 1 713
Lime R/ha 258 258 – – 200 150
Seed R/ha 1 287 871 889 498 1 522 308
Fuel R/ha 1 121 1 136 649 855 1 100 1 018
Herbicide R/ha 966 966 488 159 625 631
Insecticide / Fungicides R/ha 409 384 66 16 665 746
Marketing costs R/ha – – – – – –
Repairs and maintenance R/ha 887 818 628 572 1 193 751
Casual labour R/ha 171 171 – 144 – 171
Aerial spray R/ha – – – – – –
Other expenditure R/ha – – – – 173 –
Total variable expenditure R/ha R8 018 R6 962 R4 394 R3 854 R6 842 R5 762
Total variable expenditure R/ton R1 458 R1 547 R2 511 R2 202 R4 561 R1 921
3.1 Gross margin R/ha R4 422 R3 473 R4 520 R4 687 R6 471 R2 824
3.2 Gross margin R/ton R804 R772 R2 583 R2 678 R4 314 R941
Break-even yield T/ha 3.54 3.00 0.86 0.79 0.77 2.01
Break-even price R/ton R1 458 R1 547 R2 511 R2 202 R4 561 R1 921
Source: BFAP, GSA and Senwes – 2019.
Gross margin comparison – baseline: Western and Northern Free State
Gross margin comparison - Baseline: Western / Northern Free State

Gross margin per hectare: Northern Free State

Maize sensitivity analysis (higher potential soils)
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00
R1 862 -571 360 1 291 2 222 3 153 4 084 5 015
R1 962 -171 810 1 791 2 771 3 753 4 734 5 715
R2 062 229 1 260 2 291 3 322 4 353 5 384 6 415
R2 162 629 1 710 2 791 3 872 4 953 6 034 7 115
R2 262 1 029 2 160 3 291 4 422 5 553 6 684 7 815
R2 362 1 429 2 610 3 791 4 972 6 153 7 334 8 515
R2 462 1 829 3 060 4 291 5 522 6 753 7 984 9 215
R2 562 2 229 3 510 4 791 6 072 7 353 8 634 9 915
R2 662 2 629 3 960 5 291 6 622 7 953 9 284 10 615
Soybeans sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50
R4 694 300 1 473 2 646 3 820 4 993 6 166 7 340
R4 794 400 1 598 2 796 3 995 5 193 6 391 7 590
R4 894 500 1 723 2 946 4 170 5 393 6 616 7 840
R4 994 600 1 848 3 096 4 345 5 593 6 841 8 090
R5 094 700 1 973 3 246 4 520 5 793 7 066 8 340
R5 194 800 2 098 3 396 4 695 5 993 7 291 8 590
R5 294 900 2 223 3 546 4 870 6 193 7 516 8 840
R5 394 1 000 2 348 3 696 5 045 6 393 7 741 9 090
R5 494 1 100 2 473 3 846 5 220 6 593 7 966 9 340
Sunflower sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50
R4 481 627 1 747 2 867 3 987 5 107 6 227 7 348
R4 581 727 1 872 3 017 4 162 5 307 6 452 7 598
R4 681 827 1 997 3 167 4 337 5 507 6 677 7 848
R4 781 927 2 122 3 317 4 512 5 707 6 902 8 098
R4 881 1 027 2 247 3 467 4 687 5 907 7 127 8 348
R4 981 1 127 2 372 3 617 4 862 6 107 7 351 8 598
R5 081 1 227 2 497 3 767 5 037 6 307 7 577 8 848
R5 181 1 327 2 622 3 917 5 212 6 507 7 802 9 098
R5 281 1 427 2 747 4 067 5 387 6 707 8 027 9 348
Groundnuts sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25
R8 475 190 2 533 4 877 7 221 9 565 11 908 14 252
R8 575 265 2 633 5 002 7 371 9 740 12 108 14 477
R8 675 340 2 733 5 127 7 521 9 915 12 308 14 702
R8 775 415 2 833 5 252 7 671 10 090 12 708 15 152
R8 875 490 2 933 5 377 7 821 10 265 12 708 15 152
R8 975 565 3 033 5 502 7 971 10 440 12 908 15 377
R9 075 640 3 133 5 627 8 121 10 615 13 108 15 602
R9 175 715 3 233 5 752 8 271 10 790 13 308 15 827
R9 275 790 3 333 5 877 8 421 10 965 13 508 16 052
Soybeans margin above/below maize
Yield Price (R/ton)
R4 794 R4 894 R4 994 R5 094 R5 194 R5 294 R5 394
0.75 -5 221 -5 146 -5 071 -4 996 -4 921 -4 846 -4 771
1.00 -4 023 -3 923 -3 823 -3 723 -3 623 -3 523 -3 423
1.25 -2 824 -2 699 -2 574 -2 449 -2 324 -2 199 -2 074
1.50 -1 626 -1 476 -1 326 -1 176 -1 026 -876 -726
1.75 -428 -253 -78 97 272 447 622
2.00 771 971 1 171 1 371 1 571 1 771 1 971
2.25 1 969 2 194 2 419 2 644 2 869 3 094 3 319
2.50 3 168 3 418 3 668 3 918 4 168 4 418 4 668
2.75 4 366 4 641 4 916 5 191 5 466 5 741 6 016

Notes

  • Farm gate price for ground nuts is calculated according to assumptions based on the share of the crop that is graded according to selection grade (40/50-60/70 and 70/80), diverse and crush (human and oil).
  • The cost items reflect the input allocation based on the target yield for the respective crops.
  • Although some expenditure items are zero, it is reflected in the budgets to allow for individual inclusion.
  • Fertiliser assumptions (kg/ha): Maize (higher potential) N:P:K – 100:16:14. Maize (normal potential) N:P:K – 88:16:8. Soybeans N:P:K – 10:10:10. Sunflower N:P:K – 45:7:10. Groundnuts N:P:K – 15:15:15. Grain Sorghum N:P:K – 69:14:8.
  • Micro-elements such as calcium, magnesium and zinc are included in the fertiliser costs.
  • The cost of fuel includes pre-harvest and harvesting costs with the assumption that own machinery is used.
  • The cost for soybean seed reflects a combination of own and purchased seed.
  • There will be large fluctuations for insurance cost (hail) based on the associated risk in respective areas. It is advised that producers adjust this cost based on their individual premiums.
  • It is important to note that overhead costs are not included and should be accounted for.
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