Short and medium term requirements for and usage for fishmeal and oilcake
(updated November 2005)

Table 1

Fishmeal and Oilcake balance sheet   (2003/2004-2005/2006) (April-March)

	Fishmeal (ton)			Oilcake (ton)
Year	2003/2004	2004/2005	2005/2006	2003/2004	2004/2005	2005/2006
Requirements / Sales	127 000	127 000	127 000	1 121 460	1 212 593	1 200 000
Available / Produced	133 000	132 000	121 000	489 413	416 736	472 221
Shortage / Imports	-6 000	-5 000	6 000	632 047	795 857	727 779

2005/2006 – Estimate
Source: Fishing industry / AFMA Chairman's Report 2003/2004 and 2004/2005

Table 2

Fishmeal and Oilcake usage   (2003/2004-2005/2006) (April-March)

	Fishmeal (ton)			Oilcake (ton)
Year	2003/2004	2004/2005	2005/2006	2003/2004	2004/2005	2005/2006
AFMA Members	114 402	100 879	92 299	784 961	818 767	883 608
Non-AFMA Members	12 598	26 121	34 701	336 499	393 826	316 392
Total	127 000	127 000	127 000	1 121 460	1 212 593	1 200 000

Source: AFMA Chairman's Report 2002/2003 and 2003/2004
2005/2006 – Estimate
Non-AMFA members figures can also include unused stocks.

Table 3

The Main Raw Material usage by AFMA-members   (2003/2004-2005/2006) (April-March)

	Total (ton)	Inclusion rate (%)	Total (ton)	Inclusion rate (%)	Total (ton)	Inclusion rate (%)
Raw Materials	2003/2004		2004/2005		2005/2006
Sunflower oilcake	273 123	6.51	213 837	4.96	237 689	5.35
Groundnuts oilcake	1 762	0.04	891	0.02	4 603	0.10
Soy oilcake	364 882	8.70	448 648	10.40	425 431	9.58
Full fat soy	88 950	2.12	92 968	2.16	150 643	3.39
Cotton oilcake	38 044	0.91	46 396	1.08	51 065	1.15
Full fat cotton	4 692	0.11	4 340	0.10	6 070	0.14
Canola oilcake	6 490	0.15	5 138	0.12	2 995	0.07
Full fat canola	1 353	0.03	454	0.01	0	0
Total oilcake	784 961	18.74	818 767	18.97	883 608	19.89
Total maize products	2 344 042	55.91	2 384 886	55.34	2 386 853	53.73
Total fishmeal	114 402	2.73	100 879	2.34	92 299	2.08

Source: AFMA Chairman's Report 2003/2004 and 2004/2005
AFMA raw material usage April 2005 to March 2006.
* Note: total oilcake in Table 3 include all oilcake and not only specific oilcake items listed in Table 3.

Table 4

Fishmeal: local production and imports   (2003/2004-2005/2006) (April-March)

	Local (RSA + Namibia) Fishmeal production (ton)			Imported Fishmeal (ton)
Year	2003/2004	2004/2005	2005/2006	2003/2004	2004/2005	2005/2006
RSA	120 000	120 000	115 000
Namibia	13 000	12 000	6 000
Total	133 000	132 000	121 000	-6 000	-5 000	6 000

Source: AFMA; SA Fishmeal Marketing Company
2005/2006 – Estimate

Table 5

Oilcake: local production and imports   (2003/2004-2005/2006)

	Local Oilcake production (ton)			Imported Oilcake (ton)
Year	2003/2004	2004/2005	2005/2006	2003/2004	2004/2005	2005/2006
Oilcake
Groundnuts oilcake	1 766	1 766	8 025
Sunflower oilcake	336 000	277 200	260 400	24 379	16 073
Soy cake	6 000			477 814	626 244
– Full fat	113 280	92 080	144 000	19 502	22 234
– Beans
Cotton cake	11 296	21 170	18 233	73 760	89 056
– Full fat	2 346			22 413	32 315
Other				14 181	9 975
Canola	14 685	20 570	26 053
Lupins	4 040	3 950	15 510
Copra and Palm Kernel
Total	489 413	416 736	472 221	632 049	795 897	727 779

Source: AFMA Chairman's Report 2003/2004 and 2004/2005
2005/2006 – Estimate
The projected local production figures for soy and cotton reflect full fat and oilcake.

Table 6

Oilseed and Grain production in the RSA (ton)   (2001/2002-2005/2006 marketing season)

Crop	2001/2002	2002/2003	2003/2004	2004/2005	2005/2006
White maize	4 109 790	5 078 000	6 371 000	5 805 000	7 264 500
Yellow maize	3 115 350	3 386 000	3 019 000	3 677 000	4 915 800
Sorghum	175 580	208 000	219 700	373 000	297 300
Groundnuts	183 840	120 200	60 000	115 000	74 388
Sunflower	638 320	932 000	642 075	648 000	620 000
Soybeans	209 705	216 000	136 500	220 000	272 500
Cotton seed ¹	34 438	36 530	29 278	50 169	38 171
Wheat	2 492 880	2 320 745	1 428 150	1 680 000	1 851 300
Sweet lupins	16 338	11 700	4 040	3 950	15 510
Canola	25 750	37 975	40 770	32 000	47 370

Source: National Crop Estimates Committee; Third estimate for winter crops (20 October 2005) and seventh production estimate for summer crops for the 2005/2006 marketing year (22 August 2005).
SAGIS; ¹ Cotton South Africa

Table 7

Oilseed and Grain supply in the RSA (ton)   (2005/2006 marketing season)

Crop	Opening stock	Imports to RSA	Production	Total supply
White maize	2 402 000	0	7 264 500	9 666 500
Yellow maize	746 000	120 000	4 915 800	5 781 800
Sorghum	183 000	0	297 300	480 300
Groundnuts	54 000	1 000	74 388	129 388
Sunflower	120 000	1 000	620 000	741 000
Soybeans	101 000	15 000	272 500	388 500
Wheat	586 000	860 000	1 851 300	3 297 300
Canola	7 500	0	47 370	54 870

Source: Opening stock, import and production figures obtained from Grain South Africa.
2004/2005 Marketing Season applies for winter crops.

Table 8

Area planted to Oilseed and Grain crops in the RSA   (2000/2001-2005/2006 production season)

	Ha Planted
Crop	2000/2001	2001/2002	2002/2003	2003/2004	2004/2005	2005/2006
White maize	1 596 005	1 721 580	2 234 350	1 842 000	1 845 000	851 400
Yellow maize	1 111 900	1 111 000	950 350	1 001 300	1 084 500	847 710
Sorghum	88 300	75 000	95 100	130 000	98 240	46 000
Groundnuts	165 250	94 160	49 850	71 500	42 800	64 000
Sunflower	521 695	645 510	605 750	530 000	460 000	621 000
Soybeans	134 150	124 150	100 150	135 000	150 000	245 000
Wheat	860 000	959 400	941 400	748 000	830 000	800 500
Sweet lupins	14 705	14 785	11 000	10 100	7 100	14 100
Canola	19 145	27 000	33 000	44 200	44 250	41 200
Total	4 511 150	4 772 585	5 020 650	4 512 100	4 561 890	3 530 910

Source: National Crop Estimates Committee; First intention to plant for summer crops 2005/2006 production season (20 September 2005). Third area estimate to plant for winter crops 2005/2006 production season (20 October 2005).

Table 9

Note on Marketing Season for Summer and Winter crops

Crops	Season
White maize	May-April
Yellow maize	May-April
Sorghum	April-March
Groundnuts	March-February
Sunflower	January-December
Soybeans	January-December
Wheat	October-September