Short and medium term requirements for and usage for fishmeal and oilcake
(updated January 2005)

Table 1

Fishmeal and Oilcake balance sheet   (2002/2003-2004/2005) (April-March)

	Fishmeal (ton)			Oilcake (ton)
Year	2002/2003	2003/2004	2004/2005	2002/2003	2003/2004	2004/2005
Requirements / Sales	82 988	127 000	127 000	1 210 396	1 121 460	1 200 000
Available / Produced	123 000	133 000	132 000	472 311	489 413	456 743
Shortage / Imports	-40 012	-6 000	-5 000	738 085	632 047	743 257

2004/2005 – Estimate
Source: Fishing industry / AFMA Chairman's Report 2002/2003 and 2003/2004

Table 2

Fishmeal and Oilcake usage   (2002/2003-2004/2005) (April-March)

	Fishmeal (ton)			Oilcake (ton)
Year	2002/2003	2003/2004	2004/2005	2002/2003	2003/2004	2004/2005
AFMA Members	70 540	114 402	112 726	816 934	784 961	813 682
Non-AFMA Members	12 448	12 598	14 274	393 462	336 499	386 318
Total	82 988	127 000	127 000	1 210 396	1 121 460	1 200 000

Source: AFMA Chairman's Report 2002/2003 and 2003/2004
2004/2005 – Estimate
Non-AMFA members figures can also include unused stocks.

Table 3

The Main Raw Material usage by AFMA-members   (2002/2003-2004/2005) (April-March)

	Total (ton)	Inclusion rate (%)	Total (ton)	Inclusion rate (%)	Total (ton)	Inclusion rate (%)
Raw Materials	2002/2003		2003/2004		2004/2005
Sunflower oilcake	212 359	5.18	273 123	6.51	231 498	5.39
Groundnuts oilcake	7 386	0.18	1 762	0.04	538	0.01
Soy oilcake	413 443	11.07	364 882	8.70	429 858	10.00
Full fat soy	121 426	2.96	88 950	2.12	87 636	2.04
Cotton oilcake	44 939	1.09	38 044	0.91	49 944	1.16
Full fat cotton	6 768	0.16	4 692	0.11	4 078	0.09
Canola oilcake	7 514	0.18	6 490	0.15	3 860	0.09
Full fat canola			1 353	0.03	837	0.02
Total oilcake	816 934	19.90	784 961	18.74	813 682	18.93
Total maize products	2 268 560	55.27	2 344 042	55.91	2 412 920	56.13
Total fishmeal	70 540	1.72	114 402	2.73	112 726	2.62

Source: AFMA Chairman's Report 2002/2003 and 2003/2004
AFMA raw material usage April 2004 to March 2005.
* Note: total oilcake in Table 3 include all oilcake and not only specific oilcake items listed in Table 3.

Table 4

Fishmeal: local production and imports   (2002/2003-2004/2005) (April-March)

	Local (RSA + Namibia) Fishmeal production (ton)			Imported Fishmeal (ton)
Year	2002/2003	2003/2004	2004/2005	2002/2003	2003/2004	2004/2005
RSA	110 000	120 000	120 000
Namibia	13 000	13 000	12 000
Total	123 000	133 000	132 000	-40 012	-6 000	-5 000

Source: AFMA; SA Fishmeal Marketing Company
2004/2005 – Estimate

Table 5

Oilcake: local production and imports   (2002/2003-2004/2005)

	Local Oilcake production (ton)			Imported Oilcake (ton)
Year	2002/2003	2003/2004	2004/2005	2002/2003	2003/2004	2004/2005
Oilcake
Groundnuts oilcake	8 132	1 766	8 025
Sunflower oilcake	293 328	336 000	260 358	14 112	24 379
Soy cake	7 440	6 000		562 552	477 814
– Full fat	112 560	113 280	130 628	22 800	19 502
– Beans
Cotton cake	16 781	11 296	21 551	88 921	73 760
– Full fat	1 485	2 346		24 474	22 413
Other				25 226	14 181
Canola	20 885	14 685	29 081
Lupins	11 700	4 040	7 100
Copra and Palm Kernel
Total	472 311	489 413	456 743	738 085	632 049	743 257

Source: AFMA Chairman's Report 2002/2003 and 2003/2004
2004/2005 – Estimate
The projected local production figures for soy and cotton reflect full fat and oilcake.

Table 6

Oilseed and Grain production in the RSA (ton)   (2000/2001-2004/2005 marketing season)

Crop	2000/2001	2001/2002	2002/2003	2003/2004	2004/2005
White maize	6 154 500	4 109 790	5 078 000	6 371 000	5 805 000
Yellow maize	3 986 440	3 115 350	3 386 000	3 019 000	3 677 000
Sorghum	352 450	175 580	208 000	219 700	373 000
Groundnuts	113 550	183 840	120 200	60 000	115 000
Sunflower	530 625	638 320	932 000	642 075	648 000
Soybeans	148 720	209 705	216 000	136 500	220 000
Cotton seed ¹	40 537	34 438	36 530	29 278	50 169
Wheat	2 122 440	2 492 880	2 320 745	1 428 150	1 752 350
Sweet lupins	17 360	16 338	11 700	4 040	3 950
Canola	26 549	25 750	37 975	40 770	34 250

Source: National Crop Estimates Committee; Fifth estimate for winter crops (20 December 2004) and final production estimate for summer crops for the 2004/2005 marketing year (2 December 2004).
SAGIS; ¹ Cotton South Africa

Table 7

Oilseed and Grain supply in the RSA (ton)   (2004/2005 marketing season)

Crop	Opening stock	Imports to RSA	Production	Total supply
White maize	2 123 000	0	5 805 000	7 928 000
Yellow maize	510 000	180 000	3 677 000	4 367 000
Sorghum	49 000	6 000	373 000	428 000
Groundnuts	16 700	14 000	115 000	145 700
Sunflower	125 000	18 000	648 000	791 000
Soybeans	48 700	15 000	220 000	283 700
Wheat	598 000	1 032 000	1 752 350	3 382 350
Canola	10 500	0	34 250	44 750

Source: Opening stock, import and production figures obtained from Grain South Africa.

Table 8

Area planted to Oilseed and Grain crops in the RSA   (1999/2000-2004/2005 production season)

	Ha Planted
Crop	1999/2000	2000/2001	2001/2002	2002/2003	2003/2004	2004/2005
White maize	2 003 000	1 596 005	1 721 580	2 234 350	1 842 000	1 881 350
Yellow maize	1 227 440	1 111 900	1 111 000	950 350	1 001 300	1 169 700
Sorghum	142 200	88 300	75 000	95 100	130 000	118 000
Groundnuts	82 600	165 250	94 160	49 850	71 500	62 000
Sunflower	396 350	521 695	645 510	605 750	530 000	482 000
Soybeans	93 787	134 150	124 150	100 150	135 000	155 000
Wheat	718 000	860 000	959 400	941 100	748 000	851 200
Sweet lupins	19 000	14 705	14 785	11 000	10 100	7 100
Canola	25 000	19 145	27 000	33 000	44 200	45 500

Source: National Crop Estimates Committee; Revised intentions to plant for summer crops 2004/2005 production season (22 November 2004). Fifth area estimate for winter crops 2004/2005 production season (20 December 2004).

Table 9

Note on Marketing Season for Summer and Winter crops

Crops	Season
White maize	May-April
Yellow maize	May-April
Sorghum	April-March
Groundnuts	March-February
Sunflower	January-December
Soybeans	January-December
Wheat	October-September