INCOME & COST BUDGETS  |  Summer Crops 2020/2021

Northern Free State – dryland

Income and cost budgets for maize, soybeans, sunflower, groundnuts and grain sorghum for Western and Northern Free State
Area Western and Northern Free State
Crop Maize (higher potential) Maize (normal potential) Soybeans Sunflower Groundnuts Grain sorghum
Production system Dryland

1. Income
Yield: deterministic Ton/ha 5.50 4.50 1.75 1.75 1.50 3.00
SAFEX simulated price / producer price: 2021 R/ton 2 633 2 552 5 897 5 979 8 875 2 926
Total deductions R/ton 339 296 143 380 63 80
– Transport differential R/ton 276 233 – 261 – –
– Grade differential R/ton – – – – – 17
– Marketing and handling R/ton 63 63 143 119 63 63
Price premiums R/ton – – – – – –
Net farm gate price R/ton 2 294 2 256 5 754 5 599 8 812 2 846
Gross income R/ha R12 616 R10 152 R10 070 R9 798 R13 218 R8 539

2. Variable expenditures
Contracting R/ha – – – – – –
Crop insurance R/ha 353 112 926 382 159 273
Fertilizer R/ha 2 450 2 133 795 1 219 1 121 1 620
Lime R/ha 257 257 – – 141 150
Seed R/ha 1 323 939 836 503 1 619 315
Fuel R/ha 980 971 693 756 973 901
Herbicide R/ha 1 111 984 538 183 842 714
Insecticide / Fungicides R/ha 562 35 17 31 751 836
Marketing costs R/ha – – – – – –
Repairs and maintenance R/ha 753 746 746 640 857 782
Casual labour R/ha 178 178 – 150 – 149
Aerial spray R/ha – – – – – –
Other expenditure R/ha – – – – 180 –
Total variable expenditure R/ha R7 967 R6 356 R4 552 R3 865 R6 642 R5 740
Total variable expenditure R/ton R1 449 R1 412 R2 601 R2 209 R4 428 R1 913
3.1 Gross margin R/ha R4 648 R3 795 R5 518 R5 932 R6 576 R2 798
3.2 Gross margin R/ton R845 R843 R3 153 R3 390 R4 384 R933
Break-even yield T/ha 3.47 2.82 0.79 0.69 0.75 2.02
Break-even price R/ton R1 449 R1 412 R2 601 R2 209 R4 428 R1 913
Source: BFAP, GSA and Senwes – 2020.
Gross margin comparison – baseline: Western and Northern Free State
Gross margin comparison - Baseline: Western / Northern Free State

Gross margin per hectare: Northern Free State

Maize sensitivity analysis (higher potential soils)
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00
R1 894 -392 554 1 501 2 448 3 395 4 342 5 289
R1 994 8 1 004 2 001 2 998 3 995 4 992 5 989
R2 094 408 1 454 2 501 3 548 4 595 5 642 6 689
R2 194 808 1 904 3 001 4 098 5 195 6 292 7 389
R2 294 1 208 2 354 3 501 4 648 5 795 6 942 8 089
R2 394 1 608 2 804 4 001 5 198 6 395 7 592 8 789
R2 494 2 008 3 254 4 501 5 745 6 995 8 242 9 489
R2 594 2 408 3 704 5 001 6 298 7 595 8 892 10 189
R2 694 2 808 4 154 5 501 6 848 8 195 9 542 10 889
Soybeans sensitivity analysis (normal potential soils)
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50
R5 354 803 2 141 3 480 4 818 6 157 7 495 8 834
R5 454 903 2 266 3 630 4 993 6 357 7 720 9 084
R5 554 1 003 2 391 3 780 5 168 6 557 7 945 9 334
R5 654 1 103 2 516 3 930 5 343 6 757 8 170 9 584
R5 754 1 203 2 641 4 080 5 518 6 957 8 395 9 834
R5 854 1 303 2 766 4 230 5 693 7 157 8 620 10 084
R5 954 1 403 2 891 4 380 5 868 7 357 8 845 10 334
R6 054 1 503 3 016 4 530 6 043 7 557 9 070 10 584
R6 154 1 603 3 141 4 680 6 218 7 757 9 295 10 834
Sunflower sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50
R5 199 1 333 2 633 3 933 5 232 6 532 7 832 9 131
R5 299 1 433 2 758 4 083 5 407 6 732 8 057 9 381
R5 399 1 533 2 883 4 233 5 582 6 932 8 282 9 631
R5 499 1 633 3 008 4 383 5 757 7 132 8 507 9 881
R5 599 1 733 3 133 4 533 5 932 7 332 8 732 10 131
R5 699 1 833 3 258 4 683 6 107 7 532 8 957 10 381
R5 799 1 933 3 383 4 833 6 282 7 732 9 182 10 631
R5 899 2 033 3 508 4 983 6 457 7 932 9 407 10 881
R5 999 2 133 3 633 5 133 6 632 8 132 9 632 11 131
Groundnuts sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50
R8 412 342 2 670 4 998 7 326 9 654 11 982 14 310
R8 512 417 2 770 5 123 7 476 9 829 12 182 14 535
R8 612 492 2 870 5 248 7 626 10 004 12 382 14 760
R8 712 567 2 970 5 373 7 776 10 179 12 582 14 985
R8 812 642 3 070 5 498 7 926 10 354 12 782 15 210
R8 912 717 3 170 5 623 8 076 10 529 12 982 15 435
R9 012 792 3 270 5 748 8 226 10 704 13 182 15 660
R9 112 867 3 370 5 873 8 376 10 879 13 382 15 885
R9 212 942 3 470 5 998 8 526 11 054 13 582 16 110
Soybeans margin above/below maize
Yield Price (R/ton)
R5 454 R5 554 R5 654 R5 754 R5 854 R5 954 R6 054
0.75 -5 109 -5 034 -4 959 -4 884 -4 809 -4 734 -4 659
1.00 -3 746 -3 646 -3 546 -3 446 -3 346 -3 246 -3 146
1.25 -2 382 -2 257 -2 132 -2 007 -1 882 -1 757 -1 632
1.50 -1 019 -869 -719 -569 -419 -269 -119
1.75 345 520 695 870 1 045 1 220 1 395
2.00 1 709 1 909 2 109 2 309 2 509 2 709 2 909
2.25 3 072 3 297 3 522 3 747 3 972 4 197 4 422
2.50 4 436 4 686 4 936 5 186 5 436 5 686 5 936
2.75 5 799 6 074 6 349 6 624 6 899 7 174 7 449

Notes

  • The Northern Free State high potential maize budget represents the cultivation of yellow maize under high potential conditions such as water table soils.
  • Farm gate price for ground nuts is calculated according to assumptions based on the share of the crop that is graded according to selection grade (40/50-60/70 and 70/80), diverse and crush (human and oil).
  • The cost items reflect the input allocation based on the target yield for the respective crops.
  • Although some expenditure items are zero, it is reflected in the budgets to allow for individual inclusion.
  • Fertiliser assumptions (kg/ha): Maize (higher potential) N:P:K – 100:16:14. Maize (normal potential) N:P:K – 88:16:8. Soybeans N:P:K – 10:10:10. Sunflower N:P:K – 45:7:10. Ground Nuts N:P:K – 15:15:15. Grain Sorghum N:P:K – 69:14:8.
  • Other macro- and microelements such as calcium, magnesium and zinc are included in the fertiliser costs.
  • The cost of fuel includes pre-harvest and harvesting costs with the assumption that own machinery is used.
  • The cost for soybean seed reflects a combination of own and purchased seed.
  • There will be large fluctuations for insurance cost (hail) based on the associated risk in respective areas. It is advised that producers adjust this cost based on their individual premiums.
  • It is important to note that overhead costs are not included and should be accounted for.
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