Income & Cost Budgets / 2017/2018 / Soybean Maize Sunflower / Icb User Info Soybeans 2017 2018

2017/2018 Income and Cost Budgets

Area coverage

Table 1 and Table 2 indicates the area of coverage and include the dryland and irrigated crops. The source of data and collaborators are also included.
Table 1.1: Area coverage – Dryland
Area Dryland crops Source and Collaborators
Bloedrivier Maize and soybeans GSA, BFAP and Individual farmers
Middelburg / Trichardt Maize, soybeans and grain sorghum GSA, BFAP and Individual farmers
Ermelo Maize and soybeans GSA, BFAP and Individual farmers
Eastern Free State
Reitz region Maize, soybeans, sunflower and dry beans GSA, VKB, BFAP and Individual farmers
Western / Northern Free State
Wesselsbron Maize GSA, Senwes and BFAP
Bothaville (high potential) Maize GSA, Senwes and BFAP
Western / Northern Free State Maize, soybeans, sunflower, groundnuts and grain sorghum GSA, Senwes and BFAP
North West
Koster Maize, soybeans and sunflower GSA, NWK, BFAP and Individual farmers
Lichtenburg Maize, soybeans, sunflower and groundnuts GSA, NWK, BFAP and Individual farmers
Table 1.2: Area coverage – Irrigation
Area Irrigated crops Source and Collaborators
Northern Cape
GWK area Maize, soybeans, groundnuts and sunflower (oil) GWK, GSA and BFAP
Bergville Maize and soybeans GSA and Individual farmers
North West
Britz / Northam / Koedoeskop Maize, soybeans, sunflower and sorghum GSA, NWK and Individual farmers
Loskop Irrigation Scheme Maize and soybeans GSA and Individual farmers

Yield assumptions

Figure 1 and Figure 2 reports the yield assumptions for dryland and irrigated crops. The assumptions represent target yields and crop input allocation based on achieving the stipulated target yields. The respective target yields were determined in a round table discussion with industry experts.
Figure 1.1: Dryland crops yield assumptions
Dryland crops yield assumptions for KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga, Northern and Western Free State and North West
Figure 1.2: Irrigated crops yield assumptions
Irrigated crops yield assumptions for Northern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, North West and Limpopo

Crop price assumptions

On an annual basis, the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) presents an outlook of agricultural production, consumption, prices and trade in South Africa over a 10-year period. The information presented is based on assumptions about a range of economic, technological, environmental, political, institutional, and social factors. The outlook is generated by the BFAP system of models. A number of critical assumptions have to be made for baseline projections. One of the most important assumptions is that normal weather conditions will prevail in Southern Africa and around the world: therefore, yields grow constantly over the baseline as technology improves. Assumptions regarding the outlook of macroeconomic conditions are based in a combination of projections developed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank and the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) at Stellenbosch University. Baseline projections for world commodity markets were generated by FAPRI at the University of Missouri. Once the critical assumptions are captured in the BFAP system models, the Outlook for all commodities is simulated within a closed system of equations. This implies that, for example, any shocks in the grain sector are transmitted to the livestock sector and vice versa. Therefore, for each commodity, important components of supply and demand are identified, after which an equilibrium is established through balance sheet principles by equalling total demand to total supply.

Figure 3 illustrates the commodity price assumptions for white maize, yellow maize, sorghum, sunflower and soybeans that were used in the summer crop budgets for the 2017/2018 production season. The sensitivity analysis in the respective crop budgets makes provision for variation in price and yield and indicates the gross margin under each price and yield combination.

Figure 1.3: BFAP average annual commodity price projections: 2016-2018
BFAP average annual commodity price projections for 2016 to 2018
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