Reports / Archives / Research Reports / 2007/2008 / 2007 Annexure 3

Research Report 2007/2008

Annexure III

Short- and medium-term requirements and usage of fishmeal and oilcake

(Updated January 2008)

Table 1
Fishmeal and Oilcake balance sheet   (2005/2006-2007/2008) (April-March)
  Fishmeal (ton) Oilcake (ton)
Year 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008
Requirements / Sales 80 000 60 000 40 000 1 414 338 1 635 525 1 500 000
Available / Produced 101 000 87 000 111 000 572 231 608 370 508 759
Shortage / Imports (-21 000) (-27 000) (-71 000) 842 107 1 027 155 991 241

2006/2007 – Estimate
Source: Fishing industry; AFMA Chairman's Report 2005/2006

Table 2
Fishmeal and Oilcake usage   (2005/2006-2007/2008) (April-March)
  Fishmeal (ton) Oilcake (ton)
Year 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008
AFMA Members 78 284 37 841 28 216 907 582 1 063 945 1 127 178
Non-AFMA Members 1 716 22 129 11 784 506 756 571 580 372 822
Total 80 000 60 000 40 000 1 414 338 1 635 525 1 500 000

Source: AFMA Chairman's Report 2005/2006
2006/2007 – Estimate
Non-AMFA members figures can also include unused stocks.

Table 3
The Main Raw Material usage by AFMA-members   (2005/2006-2007/2008) (April-March)
  Total (ton) Inclusion rate (%) Total (ton) Inclusion rate (%) Total (ton) Inclusion rate (%)
Raw Materials 2005/2006   2006/2007   2007/2008  
Sunflower oilcake 216 605 5.02 169 172 3.79 160 370 3.24
Groundnuts oilcake 2 636 0.06 316 0.01 0 0.00
Soy oilcake 473 885 10.98 653 463 14.64 746 016 15.05
Full fat soy 147 702 3.43 183 047 4.10 164 564 3.32
Cotton oilcake 50 865 1.18 35 590 0.80 27 336 0.55
Full fat cotton 6 454 0.15 10 241 0.23 11 952 0.24
Canola oilcake 5 344 0.12 4 330 0.10 1 231 0.02
Full fat canola 1 218 0.03 3 757 0.08 1 327 0.03
Total oilcake 907 582 21.04 1 063 945 24.67 1 127 178 22.74
Total maize products 2 387 611 53.51 2 428 502 54.05 2 589 157 52.24
Total fishmeal 78 284 1.82 37 871 0.88 28 216 0.57

Source: AFMA Chairman's Report 2005/2006
AFMA raw material usage April 2006 to March 2007.
* Note: total oilcake in Table 3 include all oilcake and not only specific oilcake items listed in Table 3.

Table 4
Fishmeal: local production and imports   (2005/2006-2007/2008) (April-March)
  Local (RSA + Namibia) Fishmeal production (ton) Imported fishmeal (ton)
Year 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008
RSA 95 000 75 000 105 000
Namibia 6 000 12 000 6 000
Total 101 000 87 000 111 000 (-21 000) (-27 000) (-71 000)

Source: AFMA; SA Fishmeal Marketing Company
2006/2007 – Estimate

Table 5
Oilcake: local production and imports   (2005/2006-2007/2008)
  Local Oilcake production (ton) Imported Oilcake (ton)
Year 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008
Oilcake:
Groundnuts oilcake 1 391 2 515 1 659
Sunflower oilcake 267 120 199 500 178 500 22 144 68 808
Soy cake 37 200 113 440 272 000 635 173 808 051
  – Full fat 172 800 189 840 4 504 3 949
  – Beans
Cotton cake 37 500 32 500 32 500 121 947 99 617
  – Full fat 35 000 35 000 52 684 39 766
Other 5 655 6 965
Canola 17 270 21 175 14 300
Lupins 3 950 14 400 9 800
Copra & Palm Kernel
Total 572 231 608 370 508 759 842 107 1 027 156 991 242

Source: AFMA Chairman's Report 2005/2006
2005/2006 – Estimate
The projected local production figures for soya and cotton reflect full fat and oilcake.

Table 6
Oilseed and Grain crops in the RSA (ton)   (2003/2004-2007/2008 marketing season)
Crop 2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008
White maize 6 371 000 5 805 000 6 540 700 4 187 400 4 315 000
Yellow maize 3 019 000 3 677 000 4 909 300 2 430 600 2 810 000
Sorghum 219 700 373 000 260 000 96 000 176 000
Groundnuts 60 000 115 000 64 000 74 000 58 000
Sunflower 642 075 648 000 620 000 520 000 300 000
Soybeans 136 500 220 000 272 500 424 000 205 000
Cotton seed 29 278 50 169 37 804 25 962 19 525
Wheat 1 428 150 1 680 000 1 905 000 2 105 000 1 772 550
Sweet lupins 4 040 3 950 14 100 14 400 13 300
Canola 40 770 32 000 44 200 36 500 39 840

Source: National Crop Estimates Committee; Fifth forecast for winter crops (20 December 2007) and final crop estimate for summer crops for the 2007/2008 marketing year (2 October 2007).
SAGIS; Cotton South Africa.

Table 7
Oilseed and Grain supply in the RSA (ton)   (2007/2008 marketing season)
Crop Opening stock Imports to RSA Production Total supply
White maize 1 630 000 10 000 4 315 000 5 955 000
Yellow maize 440 000 1 650 000 2 810 000 4 900 000
Sorghum 76 000 40 000 176 000 292 000
Groundnuts 16 000 20 000 58 000 94 000
Sunflower 162 000 8 000 300 000 470 000
Soybeans 132 000 80 000 205 000 417 000
Wheat 453 000 1 450 000 1 772 550 3 675 550
Canola 9 600 0 39 840 49 440

Source: Opening stock, import, production and export figures obtained from Grain South Africa.

Table 8
Area Planted to Oilseed and Grain crops in the RSA   (2002/2003-2007/2008 production season)
  Ha planted
Crop 2002/2003 2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008
White maize 2 234 350 1 842 000 1 700 000 1 033 000 1 624 800 1 693 200
Yellow maize 950 350 1 001 300 1 110 000 567 200 927 000 1 060 600
Sorghum 95 100 130 000 86 500 37 150 69 000 90 000
Groundnuts 49 850 71 500 40 000 48 550 40 770 54 000
Sunflower 605 750 530 000 460 000 472 480 316 350 520 000
Soybeans 100 150 135 000 150 000 240 570 183 000 165 000
Wheat 941 100 748 000 830 000 805 000 764 800 632 000
Sweet lupins 11 000 10 100 7 100 14 100 16 000 14 000
Canola 33 000 44 200 44 250 40 200 34 700 33 200
Total 5 020 650 4 512 100 4 427 850 3 258 250 3 976 420 4 262 000

National Crops Estimates Committee – Second intentions to plant summer crops 2007/2008 production season (27 November 2007). Fifth area estimate for winter crops 2006/2007 production season (20 December 2007).

Table 9
Note on Marketing Season for Summer and Winter crops
Crop Season
White maize May-April
Yellow maize May-April
Sorghum April-March
Groundnuts March-February
Sunflower January-December
Soybeans January-December
Wheat October-September