The final area planted and crop production figures of winter cereals for the 2020 production season
At a meeting held on 6 May 2021, the Crop Estimates Liaison Committee (CELC) oversaw the process for the finalisation of the crop production figures of commercial wheat, malting barley, canola and cereal oats for 2020.
The estimated total production figures as released by the national Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) were revised, using the published figures of the South Africa Grain Information Services (SAGIS) of actual deliveries as the basis for the calculations. The figures from the wheat utilisation survey to determine on-farm usage and retentions, which was conducted by the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development (DALRRD), were added to the SAGIS delivery figures to calculate the final crop production figures.
Comparing the final calculated crop figures with the numbers set by the CEC during February 2021, the size of the commercial wheat crop is now 2 120 000 tons, which is 10 900 tons or 0,52% more than the final crop estimate figure of 2 109 100 tons. For malting barley the recalculated crop size is 588 000 tons, which is 1 846 tons or 0,31% less than the final crop estimate figure of 589 846 tons. The final recalculated canola crop estimate figure is 165 200 tons, which is lower (1 756 tons or 1,05%) than the final crop estimate figure of 166 956 tons. The final recalculated cereal oats crop estimate figure is 57 000 tons, which is 850 tons or 1,51% higher than the final crop estimate figure of 56 150 tons.
CELC accepted the final recalculated crop production figures for 2020 (please refer to the figures in the accompanying tables).
The CEC would like to thank all producers and industry role-players who provided information on a regular basis to improve the accuracy of the crop estimates. Producers, who do not participate in the Department's monthly survey, are requested as a matter of urgency to make an effort to contribute to the crop estimates process.
|Crop||Final area planted||Final crop||CEC area planted ¹||CEC final estimate ¹||Final crop vs Final estimate|
|(A)||(B)||(C)||(D)||(B) ÷ (D)|
|Wheat||509 800||2 120 000||509 800||2 109 100||+0.52|
|Malting barley||141 690||588 000||141 690||589 846||-0.31|
|Canola||74 120||165 200||74 120||166 956||-1.05|
|Cereal oats||26 200||57 000||26 200||56 150||+1.51|
¹ As estimated by the CEC on 25 February 2021.
|Crop||Final crop||Producer deliveries reported by SAGIS ¹||Estimated future deliveries||Retentions on farms for own use/seed|
|(October 2020 to March 2021)||(April to September 2021)|
|Wheat||2 120 000||2 016 897||62 103||41 000²|
|Malting barley||588 000||585 688||1 312||1 000|
|Canola||165 200||165 070||130||0|
|Cereal oats||57 000||55 483||1 517||0|
¹ SAGIS producer deliveries relate to the current crop.
² Based on a survey undertaken by the Directorate: Statistics and Economic Analysis of the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development.