Reports / Research Reports / 2015/2016 / 2015 Annexure 3

Research Report 2015/2016

Annexure III

Short and medium term demand and usage of fish meal and oilcake
(updated January 2015)

Table 1
Fish Meal and Oilcake balance sheet   (2012/2013-2014/2015) (April-March)
  Fish Meal (ton) Oilcake (ton)
Year 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015
Requirements / Sales 45 000 25 000 45 000 1 877 671 1 979 065 2 067 331
Available / Produced 85 000 65 000 90 000 760 321 969 100 1 173 905
Shortage / Imports -40 000 -40 000 -45 000 1 117 350 1 009 965 893 426

2014/2015 – Estimate
Source: Fishing Industry; AFMA Chairman's Report 2013/2014

Table 2
Fish Meal and Oilcake usage   (2012/2013-2014/2015) (April-March)
  Fish Meal (ton) Oilcake (ton)
Year 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015
AFMA Members 41 875 19 770 37 425 1 254 487 1 272 823 1 329 603
Non-AFMA Members 3 125 5 230 7 575 623 184 706 242 737 728
Total 45 000 25 000 45 000 1 877 671 1 979 065 2 067 331

Source: AFMA website
2014/2015 – Estimate
Non-AMFA members figures can also include unused stocks.

Table 3
The Main Raw Material usage by AFMA-members   (2012/2013-2014/2015) (April-March)
  Total (ton) Inclusion rate (%) Total (ton) Inclusion rate (%) Total (ton) Inclusion rate (%)
Raw Materials 2012/2013   2013/2014   2014/2015  
Sunflower oilcake 290 032 4.70 294 583 4.58 308 706 4.80
Groundnut oilcake 1 759 0.03 1 917 0.03 1 554 0.02
Soy oilcake 814 604 13.19 821 670 12.78 856 413 13.32
Full fat soy 77 876 1.26 75 267 1.17 91 413 1.42
Cottonseed oilcake 17 539 0.28 20 892 0.32 12 843 0.20
Full fat cottonseed 9 436 0.15 10 340 0.16 7 539 0.12
Canola oilcake 14 847 0.24 23 555 0.37 27 750 0.43
Full fat canola 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
Copra and Palm Kernel 27 969 0.45 23 231 0.36 22 750 0.35
Maize Germ Oilcake 425 0.00 1 368 0.02 303 0.00
Total oilcake 1 254 487 21.52 1 272 823 19.79 1 329 603 20.68
Total maize products 3 199 641 51.80 3 324 316 51.69 3 474 249 54.04
Total fish meal 41 875 0.68 19 770 0.31 37 425 0.58
Feed 6 176 151   6 397 563   6 428 694  

Source: AFMA website
AFMA raw material usage April 2014 to March 2015.
* Note: total oilcake in Table 3 include all oilcake and not only specific oilcake items listed in Table 3.

Table 4
Fish Meal: local production and imports   (2011/2012-2014/2015) (April-March)
  Local (RSA + Namibia) Fish Meal production (ton) Imported Fish Meal (ton)
Year 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015
PROJECT
2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014
RSA 90 000 70 000 65 000 65 000      
Namibia ¹ 15 000 14 000 13 000 13 000      
Total 105 000 84 000 78 000 80 000 -40 000 -40 000 -45 000

Source: AFMA; SA Fishmeal Marketing Company
2014/2015 – Estimate
¹ Includes Russian trawlers operating in Namibian waters.

Table 5
Oilcake: local production and imports   (2012/2013-2014/2015)
  Local Oilcake production (ton) Imported Oilcake (ton)
Year 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015
PROJECT
2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015
PROJECT
Oilcake:            
Groundnuts oilcake 1 0 0 235 588  
Sunflower oilcake 233 268 278 297 327 600 57 159 166 273 61 434
Soy cake 364 240 449 272 624 000 922 499 728 150 610 022
  - Full fat 105 120 155 654 120 000      
  - Beans       1 083 468 3 256
Cotton cake       68 333 127 604 121 082
  - Full fat 11 562 5 602 6 000 11 763 37 232  
Other:            
Canola 31 130 66 275 82 305 0 0 0
Lupins 15 000 14 000 14 000 0 0 0
Copra & Palm Kernel       28 361 57 035  
Total 760 321 969 100 1 173 905 1 089 433 1 117 350 1 110 123

Source: SAGIS
2014/2015 – Estimate
The projected local production figures for soya and cotton reflect full fat and oilcake.
South African Supply and Demand Estimate Report NAMC 29 August 2014.

Table 6
Oilseed and Grain production in the RSA (ton)   (2010/2011-2014/2015 marketing season)
Crop 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015
White maize 7 822 400 6 052 000 6 740 000 5 545 000 7 697 350
Yellow maize 5 220 600 4 308 000 5 090 000 6 145 000 6 609 700
Sorghum 220 093 155 000 135 500 147 200 268 920
Groundnuts 87 880 64 250 59 000 41 500 78 090
Sunflower 516 265 860 000 522 000 557 000 853 325
Soybeans 560 950 710 000 650 000 784 500 944 340
Cotton seed ¹ 14 793 31 373 22 326 10 641 17 115
Wheat 1 430 000 2 005 000 1 870 000 1 870 000 1 790 909
Canola 36 900 58 800 79 000 112 041 147 250

Source: National Crop Estimates Committee; Final production estimate for winter crops and fifth crop estimate for summer crops for the 2014/2015 marketing year (19 December 2014).
¹ Cotton South Africa.

Table 7
Estimated Oilseed and Grain supply in the RSA (ton)   (2014/2015 marketing season)
Crop Opening stock Imports to RSA Production Exports Total supply
White maize 274 318 0 7 697 350 655 000 7 316 668
Yellow maize 314 710 0 6 609 700 1 505 000 5 419 410
Sorghum 50 069 8 725 268 920 27 900 299 814
Groundnuts 13 300 0 78 090 16 000 75 390
Sunflower 47 116 30 000 853 325 50 932 391
Soybeans 61 806 110 000 944 340 500 1 115 646
Wheat 485 665 1 800 000 1 760 684 278 000 3 768 349
Canola 12 500 0 147 250 0 159 750

Source: Opening stock, import and export figures obtained from South African Supply and Demand.
Estimates Report, National Agricultural Marketing Council, 28 November 2014.

Table 8
Area planted to Oilseed and Grain crops in the RSA   (2009/2010-2014/2015 production season)
  Ha Planted
Crop 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015
White maize 1 719 700 1 418 300 1 636 200 1 617 200 1 551 200 1 401 450
Yellow maize 1 022 700 954 000 1 063 000 1 164 000 1 137 000 1 198 550
Sorghum 86 675 69 200 48 550 62 620 78 850 85 500
Groundnuts 57 450 55 150 45 450 46 900 52 125 58 200
Sunflower 397 700 642 700 453 350 504 700 598 950 633 600
Soybeans 311 450 418 000 472 000 516 500 502 900 618 000
Wheat 642 500 558 100 604 700 511 200 505 500 476 570
Canola 35 060 34 820 43 510 44 100 72 165 95 000
Total 4 273 235 4 150 270 4 366 760 4 467 220 4 498 690 4 561 870

Source: National Crop Estimates Committee: Intentions to plant summer crops 2015 production season (28 October 2014). Area estimate to plant winter crops 2014 production season (19 December 2014).

Table 9
Note on Marketing Season for Summer and Winter crops
Crops Season
White maize May-April
Yellow maize May-April
Sorghum April-March
Groundnuts March-February
Sunflower January-December
Soybeans January-December
Wheat October-September