2025 ICB: dryland winter crops in Eastern Ruêns (low potential)
WINTER CROPS  //  2025 Income and Cost Budgets

Southern Cape – dryland

Income and cost budgets for wheat, barley, canola, oats and lupins for Southern Cape (Eastern Rûens – low potential regions)
Area Southern Cape: Eastern Rûens (low potential)
Crop Wheat Barley Canola Oats Lupins
Production system Dryland

1. Income

Yield: deterministic Ton/ha 2.20 2.20 1.65 1.50 1.40
SAFEX simulated / derived price: 2025 R/ton 6 327 6 327 7 637 6 327 5 440
Total deductions R/ton 1 090 1 119 29 924 194
– Transport differential R/ton 800 800 800 94
– Grade differential R/ton 168 286
– Marketing, handling and statutory levies R/ton 123 33 29 124 100
Price premiums / Canola back-payment R/ton 74 764
Net farm gate price R/ton 5 237 5 387 8 371 5 403 5 246
Gross income R/ha R11 522 R11 852 R13 813 R8 105 R7 344

2. Variable expenditures

Contracting R/ha
Crop insurance R/ha 33 34 40 23
Fertilizer R/ha 2 294 2 187 2 793 1 860 993
Lime R/ha 262 262 262 220
Seed R/ha 605 566 1 551 1 151 958
Fuel R/ha 717 734 737 696 667
Herbicide R/ha 1 467 724 872 647 1 024
Insecticide R/ha 169 53 389 122 152
Fungicides R/ha 562 656 521 251 521
Marketing costs R/ha 57 78 35
Repairs and maintenance R/ha 812 724 824 604 317
Casual labour R/ha 13 14 15 9 5
Aerial spray R/ha
Other expenditure R/ha 36 165 153 123 123
Total variable expenditure R/ha R7 027 R6 197 R8 190 R5 708 R4 761
Total variable expenditure R/ton R3 194 R2 817 R4 964 R3 805 R3 400
3.1 Gross margin R/ha R4 495 R5 655 R5 622 R2 398 R2 584
3.2 Gross margin R/ton R2 043 R2 571 R3 407 R1 598 R1 845
Break-even yield T/ha 1.34 1.15 0.98 1.06 0.91
Break-even price R/ton R3 194 R2 817 R4 964 R3 805 R3 400
Source: SSK, GSA and BFAP, updated April 2025.
Gross margin comparison – Baseline: Southern Cape (Eastern Rûens – low potential)
Gross margin comparison – Baseline: Southern Cape (Eastern Ruens - low potential region)

Gross margin per hectare: Southern Cape – Eastern Rûens (low potential)

Wheat sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 1.45 1.70 1.95 2.20 2.45 2.70 2.95
R4 237 -883 176 1 235 2 295 3 354 4 413 5 472
R4 487 -521 601 1 723 2 845 3 966 5 088 6 210
R4 737 -158 1 026 2 210 3 395 4 579 5 763 6 947
R4 987 204 1 451 2 698 3 945 5 191 6 438 7 685
R5 237 567 1 876 3 185 4 495 5 804 7 113 8 422
R5 487 929 2 301 3 673 5 045 6 416 7 788 9 160
R5 737 1 292 2 726 4 160 5 595 7 029 8 463 9 897
R5 987 1 654 3 151 4 648 6 145 7 641 9 138 10 635
R6 237 2 017 3 576 5 135 6 695 8 254 9 813 11 372
Barley sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 1.45 1.70 1.95 2.20 2.45 2.70 2.95
R4 387 165 1 262 2 358 3 455 4 552 5 649 6 745
R4 637 527 1 687 2 846 4 005 5 164 6 324 7 483
R4 887 890 2 112 3 333 4 555 5 777 6 999 8 220
R5 137 1 252 2 537 3 821 5 105 6 389 7 674 8 958
R5 387 1 615 2 962 4 308 5 655 7 002 8 349 9 695
R5 637 1 977 3 387 4 796 6 205 7 614 9 024 10 433
R5 887 2 340 3 812 5 283 6 755 8 227 9 699 11 170
R6 137 2 702 4 237 5 771 7 305 8 839 10 374 11 908
R6 387 3 065 4 662 6 258 7 855 9 452 11 049 12 645
Canola sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 0.90 1.15 1.40 1.65 1.90 2.15 2.40
R7 371 -1 556 286 2 129 3 972 5 815 7 658 9 501
R7 621 -1 331 574 2 479 4 385 6 290 8 195 10 101
R7 871 -1 106 861 2 829 4 797 6 765 8 733 10 701
R8 121 -881 1 149 3 179 5 210 7 240 9 270 11 301
R8 371 -656 1 436 3 529 5 622 7 715 9 808 11 901
R8 621 -431 1 724 3 879 6 035 8 190 10 345 12 501
R8 871 -206 2 011 4 229 6 447 8 665 10 883 13 101
R9 121 19 2 299 4 579 6 860 9 140 11 420 13 701
R9 371 244 2 586 4 929 7 272 9 615 11 958 14 301
Canola margin above/below wheat
Yield Price (R/ton)
R7 621 R7 871 R8 121 R8 371 R8 621 R8 871 R9 121
0.65 -7 731 -7 569 -7 406 -7 244 -7 081 -6 919 -6 756
0.90 -5 826 -5 601 -5 376 -5 151 -4 926 -4 701 -4 476
1.15 -3 921 -3 633 -3 346 -3 058 -2 771 -2 483 -2 196
1.40 -2 015 -1 665 -1 315 -965 -615 -265 85
1.65 -110 302 715 1 127 1 540 1 952 2 365
1.90 1 795 2 270 2 745 3 220 3 695 4 170 4 645
2.15 3 701 4 238 4 776 5 313 5 851 6 388 6 926
2.40 5 606 6 206 6 806 7 406 8 006 8 606 9 206
2.65 7 511 8 174 8 836 9 499 10 161 10 824 11 486

Notes

  • Please refer to Methodology, Approach and Definitions for in-depth interpretation of enterprise budgets.
  • The canola back-payment assumes 10% of contracted price.
  • The cost items reflect the input allocation based on the target yield for the respective crops.
  • Although some expenditure items are zero, it is reflected in the budgets to allow for individual inclusion.
  • The cost of fuel includes pre-harvest and harvesting costs with the assumption that own machinery is used.
  • The costs for wheat, barley and oats seeds reflect a combination of own and purchased seed.
  • It is important to note that overhead costs are not included and should be accounted for. Overhead costs such as interest on production loans, labour, management and administration will vary to a large extent from producer to producer. Producers will therefore have to deduct the farm business' overhead cost from the gross margins as stipulated in the tables and figures to calculate the net income per crop.
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