Statistics & Estimates / Protein Statistics / Protein Statistics 2016 January

Short and medium term requirements for and usage for fish meal and oilcake
(updated January 2016)

Table 1

Fish Meal and Oilcake balance sheet   (2013/2014-2015/2016) (April-March)
  Fish Meal (ton) Oilcake (ton)
Year 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016
Requirements / Sales 25 000 45 000 20 000 1 967 445 1 966 459 2 025 768
Available / Produced 65 000 85 000 78 000 969 100 969 100 1 179 939
Shortage / Imports -40 000 -40 000 -58 000 998 345 997 359 845 829

2015/2016 – Estimate
Source: Fishing industry

Table 2
Fish Meal and Oilcake usage   (2012/2013-2014/2015) (April-March)
  Fish Meal (ton) Oilcake (ton)
Year 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015
AFMA Members 41 875 19 770 23 185 1 254 487 1 272 823 1 409 588
Non-AFMA Members -16 875 25 230 21 815 712 958 694 622 556 871
Total 25 000 45 000 45 000 1 967 445 1 967 445 1 966 459

Source: AFMA website
2014/2015 – Estimate
Non-AMFA members figures can also include unused stocks.

Table 3
The Main Raw Material usage by AFMA-members   (2012/2013-2014/2015) (April-March)
  Total (ton) Inclusion rate (%) Total (ton) Inclusion rate (%) Total (ton) Inclusion rate (%)
Raw Materials 2012/2013   2013/2014   2014/2015  
Sunflower oilcake 290 032 4.70 294 583 4.58 304 949 4.34
Groundnut oilcake 1 759 0.03 1 917 0.03 739 0.01
Soya oilcake 814 604 13.19 821 670 12.78 959 282 13.66
Full fat soya 77 876 1.26 75 267 1.17 77 981 1.11
Cottonseed oilcake 17 539 0.28 20 892 0.32 12 646 0.18
Full fat cottonseed 9 436 0.15 10 340 0.16 6 682 0.10
Canola oilcake 14 847 0.24 23 555 0.37 31 675 0.45
Full fat canola 0 0.00 0 0.00 329 0.00
Copra and Palm kernel 27 969 0.45 23 231 0.36 13 776 0.20
Maize germ oilcake 425 0.00 1 368 0.02 1 529 0.02
Total oilcake 1 254 487 21.52 1 272 823 19.79 1 409 588 20.07
Total maize products 3 199 641 51.80 3 324 316 51.69 3 656 011 52.05
Total fish meal 41 875 0.68 19 770 0.31 13 042 0.19
Feed 6 176 151   6 397 563   7 024 411  

Source: AFMA website
AFMA raw material usage April 2015 to August 2015. Actual.
* Note: total oilcake in Table 3 include all oilcake and not only specific oilcake items listed in Table 3.

Table 4
Fish Meal: local production and imports   (2012/2013-2014/2015) (April-March)
  Local (RSA + Namibia) Fish Meal production (ton) Imported Fish Meal (ton)
Year 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016
PROJECT
2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016
RSA 70 000 65 000 85 000 78 000      
Namibia ¹ 14 000 13 000 13 000 1 200      
Total 84 000 78 000 80 000 80 000 -40 000 -40 000 -58 000

Source: AFMA; SA Fishmeal Marketing Company
2015/2016 – Estimate
¹ Includes Russian trawlers operating in Namibian waters.

Table 5
Oilcake: local production and imports   (2013/2014-2014/2015)
  Local Oilcake production (ton) Imported Oilcake (ton)
Year 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016
PROJECT
2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016
Oilcake:            
Groundnuts oilcake 0 0 0 588 0 0
Sunflower oilcake 278 297 320 842 260 300 166 273 62 693 160 000
Soya cake 449 272 654 839 660 900 609 613 488 833 558 438
  – Full fat 155 654 118 598 122 200      
Cotton cake       127 604 110 272 121 082
  – Full fat 5 602 8 740 19 098 37 232 37 000 37 000
Other:            
Canola 66 275 62 920 50 750 0 24 713 0
Lupins 14 000 14 000 6 000 0 0 0
Copra and Palm kernel       57 035 24 713 30 000
Total 969 100 1 179 939 1 119 248 998 345 748 224 906 520

Source: SAGIS
2015/2016 – Estimate
The projected local production figures for soya and cotton reflect full fat and oilcake.
South African Supply and Demand Estimate Report NAMC 27 November 2015

Table 6
Oilseed and Grain production in the RSA (ton)   (2011/2012-2015/2016 marketing season)
Crop 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016
White maize 6 052 000 6 740 000 5 545 000 7 710 000 4 702 700
Yellow maize 4 308 000 5 090 000 6 145 000 6 540 000 5 238 950
Sorghum 155 000 135 500 147 200 265 000 116 500
Groundnuts 64 250 59 000 41 500 74 500 56 675
Sunflower 860 000 522 000 557 000 832 000 660 900
Soybeans 710 000 650 000 784 500 948 000 1 059 950
Cotton seed ¹ 31 373 22 326 26 300 8 740 19 098
Wheat 2 005 000 1 870 000 1 870 000 1 775 534 1 635 400
Canola 58 800 79 000 112 041 123 500 121 000

Source: National Crop Estimates Committee; Final production estimate for winter crops and final crop estimate for summer crops for the 2015/2016 marketing year (29 September 2015). Final winter crop estimate (1 May 2015).
¹ Cotton South Africa.

Table 7
Estimated Oilseed and Grain supply in the RSA (ton)   (2015/2016 marketing season)
Crop Opening stock Imports to RSA Producer deliveries Exports Total supply
White maize 1 282 581 80 000 4 592 700 510 000 5 445 281
Yellow maize 791 054 650 000 4 888 950 260 000 6 070 004
Sorghum 121 812 0 114 000 30 000 205 812
Groundnuts 13 300 0 56 675 16 000 53 975
Sunflower 92 927 25 000 660 900 150 778 677
Soybeans 63 704 150 000 1 106 000 3 500 1 316 204
Wheat 575 076 1 850 000 1 603 400 298 000 3 730 476
Canola 12 500 0 121 000 0 133 500

Source: Opening stock, import and export figures obtained from South African Supply and Demand.
Estimates Report, National Agricultural Marketing Council, 28 August 2015.

Table 8
Area planted to Oilseed and Grain crops in the RSA   (2010/2011-2015/2016 production season)
Crop 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016
White maize 1 418 300 1 636 200 1 617 200 1 551 200 1 448 050 1 421 800
Yellow maize 954 000 1 063 000 1 164 000 1 137 000 1 204 800 1 129 000
Sorghum 69 200 48 550 62 620 78 850 70 500 74 750
Groundnuts 55 150 45 450 46 900 52 125 58 000 44 700
Sunflower 642 700 453 350 504 700 598 950 576 000 614 000
Soybeans 418 000 472 000 516 500 502 900 687 300 696 400
Wheat 558 100 604 700 511 200 505 500 477 650 482 150
Canola 34 820 43 510 44 100 72 165 80 000 78 050
Total 4 150 270 4 366 760 4 467 220 4 498 690 4 602 300 4 540 850

Source: National Crop Estimates Committee: Fifth production estimate. Winter crops 15 December 2015. Intentions to plant season 27 October 2015. Area estimate to plant Winter crops 2014 production season (7 May 2015).

Table 9
Note on Marketing Season for Summer and Winter crops
Crops Season
White maize May-April
Yellow maize May-April
Sorghum April-March
Groundnuts March-February
Sunflower January-December
Soybeans January-December
Wheat October-September