Short and medium term requirements for and usage for fishmeal and oilcake
(updated June 2016)

Table 1

Fishmeal and Oilcake balance sheet   (2013/2014-2015/2016) (April-March)

	Fishmeal (ton)			Oilcake (ton)
Year	2013/2014	2014/2015	2015/2016	2013/2014	2014/2015	2015/2016
Requirements / Sales	25 000	45 000	20 000	1 967 445	1 966 459	2 052 501
Available / Produced	65 000	85 000	78 000	969 100	1 170 699	1 229 277
Shortage / Imports	-40 000	-40 000	-58 000	998 345	795 760	823 224

2015/2016 – Estimate
Source: Fishing industry

Table 2

Fishmeal and Oilcake usage   (2013/2014-2015/2016) (April-March)

	Fishmeal (ton)			Oilcake (ton)
Year	2013/2014	2014/2015	2015/2016	2013/2014	2014/2015	2015/2016
AFMA Members	19 770	23 185	23 185	1 272 823	1 343 025	1 385 088
Non-AFMA Members	5 230	21 815	21 815	694 622	624 420	667 413
Total	25 000	45 000	45 000	1 967 445	1 967 445	2 052 501

Source: AFMA website
2015/2016 – Estimate
Non-AMFA members figures can also include unused stocks.

Table 3

The Main Raw Material usage by AFMA-members   (2013/2014-2015/2016) (April-March)

	Total (ton)	Inclusion rate (%)	Total (ton)	Inclusion rate (%)	Total (ton)	Inclusion rate (%)
Raw Materials	2013/2014		2014/2015		2015/2016
Sunflower oilcake	290 032	4.70	294 583	4.58	301 370	4.36
Groundnut oilcake	1 759	0.03	1 917	0.03	573	0.01
Soya oilcake	814 604	13.19	821 670	12.78	935 439	13.54
Full fat soya	77 876	1.26	75 267	1.17	74 064	1.07
Cottonseed oilcake	17 539	0.28	20 892	0.32	9 421	0.14
Full fat cottonseed	9 436	0.15	10 340	0.16	7 687	0.11
Canola oilcake	14 847	0.24	23 555	0.37	36 751	0.53
Full fat canola	0	0.00	0	0.00	578	0.00
Copra and Palm kernel	27 969	0.45	23 231	0.36	11 961	0.17
Maize germ oilcake	425	0.00	1 368	0.02	7 190	0.10
Total oilcake	1 272 823	21.52	1 343 025	19.79	1 385 088	20.05
Total maize products	3 324 316	51.80	3 493 998	51.69	3 595 160	52.04
Total fishmeal	19 770	0.68	23 185	0.31	12 322	0.18
Feed	6 431 328		6 714 004		6 908 398

Source: AFMA website
AFMA raw material usage April 2015 to February 2015. Actual.
* Note: total oilcake in Table 3 include all oilcake and not only specific oilcake items listed in Table 3.

Table 4

Fishmeal: local production and imports   (2012/2013-2015/2016) (April-March)

	Local (RSA + Namibia) Fishmeal production (ton)				Imported Fishmeal (ton)
Year	2012/2013	2013/2014	2014/2015	2015/2016 PROJECT	2013/2014	2014/2015	2015/2016
RSA	70 000	65 000	85 000	100 000
Namibia ¹	14 000	13 000	13 000	1 200
Total	84 000	78 000	98 000	101 200	-40 000	-40 000	-58 000

Source: AFMA; SA Fishmeal Marketing Company
2015/2016 – Estimate
¹ Includes Russian trawlers operating in Namibian waters.

Table 5

Oilcake: local production and imports   (2014/2015-2016/2017)

	Local Oilcake production (ton)			Imported Oilcake (ton)
Year	2014/2015	2015/2016	2016/2017	2014/2015	2015/2016	2016/2017
Oilcake:
Groundnuts oilcake	0	0	0	588	0	0
Sunflower oilcake	320 842	280 368	281 200	166 273	162 693	160 000
Soya cake	654 839	750 898	623 200	609 613	488 833	666 120
– Full fat	118 598	121 763	115 000
Cotton cake				98 478	110 272	100 000
– Full fat	8 740	19 098	19 098	11 749	12 000	12 000
Other:
Canola	53 680	51 150	51 000	0	24 713	0
Lupins	14 000	6 000	6 000	0	0	0
Copra and Palm kernel				57 035	24 713	30 000
Total	1 170 699	1 229 277	1 095 498	943 736	823 224	968 120

Source: SAGIS
2015/2016 – Estimate
The projected local production figures for soya and cotton reflect full fat and oilcake.
South African Supply and Demand Estimate Report NAMC 31 May 2016.

Table 6

Oilseed and Grain production in the RSA (ton)   (2012/2013-2016/2017 marketing season)

Crop	2012/2013	2013/2014	2014/2015	2015/2016	2016/2017
White maize	6 740 000	5 545 000	7 710 000	4 735 000	3 097 225
Yellow maize	5 090 000	6 145 000	6 540 000	5 220 000	4 063 700
Sorghum	135 500	147 200	265 000	120 500	88 500
Groundnuts	59 000	41 500	74 500	62 300	31 600
Sunflower	522 000	557 000	832 000	663 000	742 750
Soybeans	650 000	784 500	948 000	1 070 000	728 650
Cotton seed ¹	22 326	26 300	8 740	19 098	19 098
Wheat	1 870 000	1 870 000	1 750 000	1 457 015	1 440 000
Canola	79 000	112 041	121 000	97 600	93 000

Source: National Crop Estimates Committee; Fifth production forecast 2016 (26 May 2016) and winter final crop estimate for the 2015 marketing year (12 May 2016).
¹ Cotton South Africa

Table 7

Estimated Oilseed and Grain supply in the RSA (ton)   (2016/2017 marketing season)

Crop	Opening stock	Imports to RSA	Producer deliveries	Exports	Total supply
White Maize	1 144 545	1 250 000	2 990 675	480 000	4 905 220
Yellow maize	915 914	2 400 000	3 644 600	290 000	6 670 514
Sorghum	80 610	35 000	90 200	25 000	180 810
Groundnuts	13 300	0	31 600	16 000	28 900
Sunflower	45 872	66 000	710 500	100	822 272
Soybeans	88 925	250 000	659 750	4 500	994 175
Wheat	596 823	2 000 000	1 425 015	83 000	3 938 838
Canola	12 500	0	97 600	0	110 100

Source: Opening stock, import and export figures obtained from South African Supply and Demand.
Estimates Report, National Agricultural Marketing Council, 1 April 2016.

Table 8

Area planted to Oilseed and Grain crops in the RSA   (2011/2012-2016/2017 production season)

	Ha Planted
Crop	2011/2012	2012/2013	2013/2014	2014/2015	2015/2016	2016/2017
White maize	1 636 200	1 617 200	1 551 200	1 448 050	1 421 800	1 014 750
Yellow maize	1 063 000	1 164 000	1 137 000	1 204 800	1 129 000	932 000
Sorghum	48 550	62 620	78 850	70 500	74 750	48 500
Groundnuts	45 450	46 900	52 125	58 000	44 700	22 600
Sunflower	453 350	504 700	598 950	576 000	614 000	718 500
Soybeans	472 000	516 500	502 900	687 300	696 400	502 800
Wheat	604 700	511 200	505 500	477 650	482 150	482 150
Canola	43 510	44 100	72 165	80 000	78 050	78 050
Total	4 366 760	4 467 220	4 498 690	4 602 300	4 540 850	4 799 350

Source: National Crops Estimates Committee – Second production forecast 2016 (26 May 2016). Area estimate to plant Winter crops 2015 production season (12 May 2016).

Table 9

Note on Marketing Season for Summer and Winter crops

Crops	Season
White maize	May-April
Yellow maize	May-April
Sorghum	April-March
Groundnuts	March-February
Sunflower	January-December
Soybeans	January-December
Wheat	October-September