Reports / Research Reports / 2012/2013 / Annexure 3

Research Report 2012/2013

Annexure III

Short- and medium-term demand for and utilisation of fishmeal and oilcake

(Updated January 2013)

Table 1
Fishmeal and Oilcake balance sheet   (2010/2011-2012/2013) (April-March)
  Fishmeal (ton) Oilcake (ton)
Year 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013
Requirements / Sales 37 000 45 000 55 000 1 857 490 1 856 360 2 200 000
Available / Produced 94 000 105 000 105 000 624 912 766 927 918 820
Shortage / Imports -57 000 -60 000 -50 000 1 232 578 1 089 433 1 281 820

2012/2013 – Estimate
Source: Fishing industry; AFMA Chairman's Report 2011/2012

Table 2
Fishmeal and Oilcake usage   (2010/2011-2012/2013) (April-March)
  Fishmeal (ton) Oilcake (ton)
Year 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013
AFMA Members 30 754 26 492 51 033 1 255 258 1 329 126 1 345 149
Non-AFMA members 6 246 18 508 3 967 602 232 527 234 854 851
Total 37 000 45 000 55 000 1 857 490 1 856 360 2 200 000

Source: AFMA Chairman's Report 2011/2012
2011/2012 – Estimate
Non-AMFA members figures can also include unused stocks.

Table 3
The Main Raw Material usage by AFMA-members   (2010/2011-2012/2013) (April-March)
  Total (ton) Inclusion rate (%) Total (ton) Inclusion rate (%) Total (ton) Inclusion rate (%)
Raw Materials 2010/2011   2011/2012   2012/2013  
Sunflower oilcake 256 841 4.64 279 309 4.68 325 821 5.33
Groundnut oilcake 138 0.00 2 045 0.03 2 262 0.04
Soya oilcake 815 958 14.75 885 988 14.84 853 941 13.97
Full fat soya 142 758 2.58 122 772 2.06 108 252 1.77
Cottonseed oilcake 17 142 0.31 14 291 0.24 15 663 0.26
Full fat cottonseed 5 704 0.10 7 611 0.13 8 739 0.14
Canola oilcake 5 974 0.11 9 071 0.15 10 848 0.18
Full fat canola 1 056 0.02 0 0.00 0 0.00
Copra and Palm kernel 7 425 0.13 8 011 0.13 19 626 0.32
Maize germ oilcake 2 261 0.04 29 0.00 0 0.00
Total oilcake 1 255 258 22.69 1 329 126 22.26 1 345 149 22.00
Total maize products 3 034 924 54.87 3 237 558 54.21 3 238 734 52.97
Total fishmeal 30 754 0.56 26 492 0.44 51 033 0.83

Source: AFMA Chairman's Report 2011/2012
AFMA raw material usage April 2012 to March 2013 scaled up to a twelve month period.
* Note: total oilcake in Table 3 include all oilcake and not only specific oilcake items listed in Table 3.

Table 4
Fishmeal: local production and imports   (2010/2011-2012/2013) (April-March)
  Local (RSA + Namibia) Fishmeal production (ton) Imported fishmeal (ton)
Year 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013
RSA 72 000 90 000 90 000      
Namibia ¹ 22 000 15 000 15 000      
Total 94 000 105 000 105 000 -57 000 -60 000 -50 000

Source: AFMA; SA Fishmeal Marketing Company
2012/2013 – Estimate
¹ Includes Russian trawlers operating in Namibian waters.

Table 5
Oilcake: local production and imports   (2010/2011-2012/2013)
  Local Oilcake production (ton) Imported Oilcake (ton)
Year 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013
Oilcake:            
Groundnut oilcake 3 1 0 1 235  
Sunflower oilcake 249 984 336 966 369 180 103 062 57 159  
Soya cake 152 000 227 600 488 000 989 112 922 499  
  - Full fat 149 600 120 160        
  - Beans       357 1 083  
Cotton cake 7 500     87 354 68 333  
  - Full fat 25 000 40 000 10 000 17 928 11 763  
Other:            
Canola 22 825 24 200 33 000      
Lupins 18 000 18 000 18 000      
Copra and Palm kernel       34 764 28 361  
Total 624 912 766 927 918 180 1 232 578 1 089 433 1 281 820

Source: AFMA Chairman's Report 2011/2012
2012/2013 – Estimate
The projected local production figures for soya and cotton reflect full fat and oilcake.

Table 6
Oilseed and Grain production in the RSA (ton)   (2008/2009-2012/2013 marketing season)
Crop 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013
White maize 7 480 000 6 775 000 7 822 400 6 052 000 6 740 000
Yellow maize 5 220 000 5 275 000 5 220 600 4 308 000 5 090 000
Sorghum 255 000 276 500 220 093 155 000 135 500
Groundnuts 88 800 99 500 87 880 64 250 59 000
Sunflower 872 000 801 000 516 265 860 000 522 000
Soybeans 282 000 516 000 560 950 710 000 650 000
Cotton seed ¹ 17 378 15 658 14 793 31 373 22 326
Wheat 2 130 000 1 958 000 1 430 000 2 005 000 1 895 410
Canola 30 800 40 350 36 900 58 800 84 275

Source: National Crop Estimates Committee; Fifth production estimate for winter crops (20 December 2012) and final crop estimate for summer crops for the 2012/2013 marketing year (29 November 2012).
¹ Cotton South Africa.

Table 7
Estimated Oilseed and Grain supply in the RSA (ton)   (2012/2013 marketing season)
Crop Opening stock Imports to RSA Production Exports Total supply
White maize 518 000 13 000 6 740 000 1 148 000 6 123 000
Yellow maize 476 000 35 000 5 090 000 229 000 5 372 000
Sorghum 52 100 65 000 135 500 19 800 232 800
Groundnuts 13 400 19 900 59 000 15 900 76 400
Sunflower 232 700 11 700 522 000 0 766 400
Soybeans 306 100 300 650 000 158 000 798 400
Wheat 651 000 1 585 000 1 895 410 260 000 3 871 410
Canola 6 900 0 84 275 0 91 175

Source: Opening stock, import, production and export figures obtained from Grain South Africa.

Table 8
Area Planted to Oilseed and Grain crops in the RSA   (2007/2008-2012/2013 production season)
  Ha planted
Crop 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013
White maize 1 737 000 1 489 000 1 719 700 1 418 300 1 636 200 1 600 000
Yellow maize 1 062 000 938 500 1 022 700 954 000 1 063 000 1 135 000
Sorghum 86 800 85 500 86 675 69 200 48 550 64 650
Groundnuts 54 200 54 550 57 450 55 150 45 450 43 000
Sunflower 564 300 635 800 397 700 642 700 453 350 525 000
Soybeans 165 400 237 750 311 450 418 000 472 000 504 000
Wheat 632 000 748 000 642 500 558 100 604 700 551 200
Canola 33 260 34 000 35 060 34 820 43 510 44 100
Total 4 334 960 4 223 100 4 273 235 4 150 270 4 366 760 4 466 950

National Crops Estimates Committee – Intentions to plant Summer crops 2012/2013 production season (25 October 2012) and fifth area estimate to plant Winter crops 2012 production season (20 December 2012).

Table 9
Note on Marketing Season for Summer and Winter crops
Crop Season
White maize May-April
Yellow maize May-April
Sorghum April-March
Groundnuts March-February
Sunflower January-December
Soybeans January-December
Wheat October-September