WINTER CROPS  |  2021 Income and Cost Budgets

Southern Cape – dryland

Income and cost budgets for wheat, barley, canola, oats and lupins for Southern Cape (Eastern Rûens – high potential regions)
Area Southern Cape: Eastern Rûens (high potential)
Crop Wheat Barley Canola Oats Lupins
Production system Dryland

1. Income

Yield: deterministic Ton/ha 3.00 3.00 1.75 2.50 1.80
SAFEX simulated / derived price: 2021 R/ton 4 955 4 955 6 700 4 955 4 450
Total deductions R/ton 714 677 5 865 139
– Transport differential R/ton 600 600 825 100
– Grade differential R/ton 3
– Marketing, handling and statutory levies R/ton 111 77 5 40 39
Price premiums / Canola back-payment (10% of contracted price) R/ton 65 670
Net farm gate price R/ton 4 241 4 212 7 365 4 091 4 311
Gross income R/ha R12 723 R12 637 R12 889 R10 227 R7 760

2. Variable expenditures

Contracting R/ha
Crop insurance R/ha 37 36 37 29
Fertilizer R/ha 1 877 1 818 1 972 1 591 693
Lime R/ha 226 226 226 226
Seed R/ha 535 435 911 506 928
Fuel R/ha 494 503 503 492 472
Herbicide R/ha 684 680 1 113 647 745
Insecticide R/ha 116 101 493 132 149
Fungicides R/ha 598 720 637 394 262
Marketing costs R/ha 64 88 31 22
Repairs and maintenance R/ha 609 645 617 609 573
Casual labour R/ha 17 18 12 17 16
Aerial spray R/ha
Other expenditure R/ha 121 122 115 107 96
Total variable expenditure R/ha R5 377 R5 392 R6 668 R4 771 R3 932
Total variable expenditure R/ton R1 792 R1 797 R3 810 R1 908 R2 184
3.1 Gross margin R/ha R7 346 R7 245 R6 221 R5 455 R3 828
3.2 Gross margin R/ton R2 449 R2 415 R3 555 R2 182 R2 127
Break-even yield T/ha 1.27 1.28 0.91 1.17 0.91
Break-even price R/ton R1 792 R1 797 R3 810 R1 908 R2 184
Source: SSK, GSA and BFAP, April 2021.
Gross margin comparison – Baseline: Southern Cape (Eastern Rûens – high potential)
Gross margin comparison – Baseline: Southern Cape (Eastern Ruens - high potential region)

Gross margin per hectare: Southern Cape – Eastern Rûens (high potential)

Wheat sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75
R3 241 1 915 2 726 3 536 4 346 5 156 5 966 6 777
R3 491 2 478 3 351 4 223 5 096 5 969 6 841 7 714
R3 741 3 040 3 976 4 911 5 846 6 781 7 716 8 652
R3 991 3 603 4 601 5 598 6 596 7 594 8 591 9 589
R4 241 4 165 5 226 6 286 7 346 8 406 9 466 10 527
R4 491 4 728 5 851 6 973 8 096 9 219 10 341 11 464
R4 741 5 290 6 476 7 661 8 846 10 031 11 216 12 402
R4 991 5 853 7 101 8 348 9 596 10 844 12 091 13 339
R5 241 6 415 7 726 9 036 10 346 11 656 12 966 14 277
Barley sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75
R3 212 1 836 2 639 3 442 4 245 5 048 5 851 6 654
R3 462 2 398 3 264 4 129 4 995 5 861 6 726 7 592
R3 712 2 961 3 889 4 817 5 745 6 673 7 601 8 529
R3 962 3 523 4 514 5 504 6 495 7 486 8 476 9 467
R4 212 4 086 5 139 6 192 7 245 8 298 9 351 10 404
R4 462 4 648 5 764 6 879 7 995 9 111 10 226 11 342
R4 712 5 211 6 389 7 567 8 745 9 923 11 101 12 279
R4 962 5 773 7 014 8 254 9 495 10 736 11 976 13 217
R5 212 6 336 7 639 8 942 10 245 11 548 12 851 14 154
Canola sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50
R6 365 -303 1 288 2 880 4 471 6 062 7 653 9 245
R6 615 -53 1 601 3 255 4 908 6 562 8 216 9 870
R6 865 197 1 913 3 630 5 346 7 062 8 778 10 495
R7 115 447 2 226 4 005 5 783 7 562 9 341 11 120
R7 365 697 2 538 4 380 6 221 8 062 9 903 11 745
R7 615 947 2 851 4 755 6 658 8 562 10 466 12 370
R7 865 1 197 3 163 5 130 7 096 9 062 11 028 12 995
R8 115 1 447 3 476 5 505 7 533 9 562 11 591 13 620
R8 365 1 697 3 788 5 880 7 971 10 062 12 153 14 245
Canola margin above/below wheat
Yield Price (R/ton)
R6 615 R6 865 R7 115 R7 365 R7 615 R7 865 R8 115
0.75 -9 063 -8 865 -8 678 -8 490 -8 303 -8 115 -7 928
1.00 -7 399 -7 149 -6 899 -6 649 -6 399 -6 149 -5 899
1.25 -5 745 -5 433 -5 120 -4 808 -4 495 -4 183 -3 870
1.50 -4 091 -3 716 -3 341 -2 966 -2 591 -2 216 -1 841
1.75 -2 438 -2 000 -1 563 -1 125 -688 -250 187
2.00 -784 -284 216 716 1 216 1 716 2 216
2.25 870 1 432 1 995 2 557 3 120 3 682 4 245
2.50 2 524 3 149 3 774 4 399 5 024 5 649 6 274
2.75 4 177 4 865 5 552 6 240 6 927 7 615 8 302

Notes

  • The cost items reflect the input allocation based on the target yield for the respective crops.
  • Although some expenditure items are zero, it is reflected in the budgets to allow for individual inclusion.
  • The cost of fuel includes pre-harvest and harvesting costs with the assumption that own machinery is used.
  • The costs for wheat, barley and oats seeds reflect a combination of own and purchased seed.
  • It is important to note that overhead costs are not included and should be accounted for. Overhead costs such as interest on production loans, labour, management and administration will vary to a large extent from producer to producer. Producers will therefore have to deduct the farm business' overhead cost from the gross margins as stipulated in the tables and figures to calculate the net income per crop.
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