WINTER CROPS  |  2021 Income and Cost Budgets

Southern Cape – dryland

Income and cost budgets for wheat, barley, canola, oats and lupins for Southern Cape (Eastern Rûens – low potential regions)
Area Southern Cape: Eastern Rûens (low potential)
Crop Wheat Barley Canola Oats Lupins
Production system Dryland

1. Income

Yield: deterministic Ton/ha 2.20 2.20 1.20 1.50 1.40
SAFEX simulated / derived price: 2021 R/ton 4 955 4 955 6 700 4 955 4 450
Total deductions R/ton 712 641 135 865 104
– Transport differential R/ton 600 600 130 825 100
– Grade differential R/ton 3
– Marketing, handling and statutory levies R/ton 109 41 5 40 4
Price premiums / Canola back-payment (10% of contracted price) R/ton 670
Net farm gate price R/ton 4 243 4 249 7 235 4 091 4 246
Gross income R/ha R9 335 R9 347 R8 682 R6 136 R6 085

2. Variable expenditures

Contracting R/ha
Crop insurance R/ha 27 27 25 18
Fertilizer R/ha 1 540 1 498 1 601 1 212 590
Lime R/ha 226 226 226 226
Seed R/ha 463 362 872 460 795
Fuel R/ha 494 503 503 492 472
Herbicide R/ha 684 680 1 113 647 745
Insecticide R/ha 116 101 493 132 149
Fungicides R/ha 598 720 637 394 262
Marketing costs R/ha 47 65 21 22
Repairs and maintenance R/ha 501 501 525 481 573
Casual labour R/ha 14 14 12 12 16
Aerial spray R/ha
Other expenditure R/ha 121 122 115 107 96
Total variable expenditure R/ha R4 831 R4 820 R6 144 R4 203 R3 696
Total variable expenditure R/ton R2 196 R2 191 R5 120 R2 802 R2 640
3.1 Gross margin R/ha R4 505 R4 527 R2 538 R1 933 R2 388
3.2 Gross margin R/ton R2 048 R2 058 R2 115 R1 289 R1 706
Break-even yield T/ha 1.14 1.13 0.85 1.03 0.85
Break-even price R/ton R2 196 R2 191 R5 120 R2 802 R2 640
Source: SSK, GSA and BFAP, April 2021.
Gross margin comparison – Baseline: Southern Cape (Eastern Rûens – low potential)
Gross margin comparison – Baseline: Southern Cape (Eastern Ruens - low potential region)

Gross margin per hectare: Southern Cape – Eastern Rûens (low potential)

Wheat sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 1.45 1.70 1.95 2.20 2.45 2.70 2.95
R3 243 -128 683 1 494 2 305 3 115 3 926 4 737
R3 493 235 1 108 1 981 2 855 3 728 4 601 5 475
R3 743 597 1 533 2 469 3 405 4 340 5 276 6 212
R3 993 960 1 958 2 956 3 955 4 953 5 951 6 950
R4 243 1 322 2 383 3 444 4 505 5 565 6 626 7 687
R4 493 1 685 2 808 3 931 5 055 6 178 7 301 8 425
R4 743 2 047 3 233 4 419 5 605 6 790 7 976 9 162
R4 993 2 410 3 658 4 906 6 155 7 403 8 651 9 900
R5 243 2 772 4 083 5 394 6 705 8 015 9 326 10 637
Barley sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 1.45 1.70 1.95 2.20 2.45 2.70 2.95
R3 249 -109 703 1 515 2 327 3 139 3 951 4 764
R3 499 253 1 128 2 002 2 877 3 752 4 626 5 501
R3 749 616 1 553 2 490 3 427 4 364 5 301 6 239
R3 999 978 1 978 2 977 3 977 4 977 5 976 6 976
R4 249 1 341 2 403 3 465 4 527 5 589 6 651 7 714
R4 499 1 703 2 828 3 952 5 077 6 202 7 326 8 451
R4 749 2 066 3 253 4 440 5 627 6 814 8 001 9 189
R4 999 2 428 3 678 4 927 6 177 7 427 8 676 9 926
R5 249 2 791 4 103 5 415 6 727 8 039 9 351 10 664
Canola sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 0.45 0.70 0.95 1.20 1.45 1.70 1.95
R6 235 -3 339 -1 780 -221 1 338 2 896 4 455 6 014
R6 485 -3 226 -1 605 16 1 638 3 259 4 880 6 501
R6 735 -3 114 -1 430 254 1 938 3 621 5 305 6 989
R6 985 -3 001 -1 255 491 2 238 3 984 5 730 7 476
R7 235 -2 889 -1 080 729 2 538 4 346 6 155 7 964
R7 485 -2 776 -905 966 2 838 4 709 6 580 8 451
R7 735 -2 664 -730 1 204 3 138 5 071 7 005 8 939
R7 985 -2 551 -555 1 441 3 438 5 434 7 430 9 426
R8 235 -2 439 -380 1 679 3 738 5 796 7 855 9 914
Canola margin above/below wheat
Yield Price (R/ton)
R6 485 R6 735 R6 985 R7 235 R7 485 R7 735 R7 985
0.20 -9 352 -9 302 -9 252 -9 202 -9 152 -9 102 -9 052
0.45 -7 731 -7 618 -7 506 -7 393 -7 281 -7 168 -7 056
0.70 -6 109 -5 934 -5 759 -5 584 -5 409 -5 234 -5 059
0.95 -4 488 -4 251 -4 013 -3 776 -3 538 -3 301 -3 063
1.20 -2 867 -2 567 -2 267 -1 967 -1 667 -1 367 -1 067
1.45 -1 246 -883 -521 -158 204 567 929
1.70 376 801 1 226 1 651 2 076 2 501 2 926
1.95 1 997 2 484 2 972 3 459 3 947 4 434 4 922
2.20 3 618 4 168 4 718 5 268 5 818 6 368 6 918

Notes

  • The cost items reflect the input allocation based on the target yield for the respective crops.
  • Although some expenditure items are zero, it is reflected in the budgets to allow for individual inclusion.
  • The cost of fuel includes pre-harvest and harvesting costs with the assumption that own machinery is used.
  • The costs for wheat, barley and oats seeds reflect a combination of own and purchased seed.
  • It is important to note that overhead costs are not included and should be accounted for. Overhead costs such as interest on production loans, labour, management and administration will vary to a large extent from producer to producer. Producers will therefore have to deduct the farm business' overhead cost from the gross margins as stipulated in the tables and figures to calculate the net income per crop.
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