Short and medium term requirements for and usage for fishmeal and oilcake
(updated July 2004)

Table 1

Fishmeal and Oilcake balance sheet   (2002/2003-2004/2005) (April-March)

	Fishmeal (ton)			Oilcake (ton)
Year	2002/2003	2003/2004	2004/2005	2002/2003	2003/2004	2004/2005
Requirements / Sales	82 988	127 000	127 000	1 210 396	1 200 000	1 200 000
Available / Produced	123 000	122 000	147 000	472 311	417 360	417 360
Shortage / Imports	-40 012	5 000	-20 000	738 085	782 640	782 640

2004/2005 – Estimate
Source: Fishing industry / AFMA Chairman's Report 2001/2002 and 2002/2003

Table 2

Fishmeal and Oilcake usage   (2002/2003-2004/2005) (April-March)

	Fishmeal (ton)			Oilcake (ton)
Year	2002/2003	2003/2004	2004/2005	2002/2003	2003/2004	2004/2005
AFMA Members	70 540	114 402	116 148	816 934	785 630	790 203
Non-AFMA Members	12 448	12 598	10 852	393 462	414 370	409 797
Total	82 988	127 000	127 000	1 210 396	1 200 000	1 200 000

Source: AFMA Chairman's Report 2001/2002 and 2002/2003
2004/2005 – Estimate
Non-AMFA members figures can also include unused stocks.

Table 3

The Main Raw Material usage by AFMA-members   (2002/2003-2004/2005) (April-March)

	Total (ton)	Inclusion rate (%)	Total (ton)	Inclusion rate (%)	Total (ton)	Inclusion rate (%)
Raw Materials	2002/2003		2003/2004		2004/2005
Sunflower oilcake	212 359	5.18	273 019	6.51	211 932	4.95
Groundnuts oilcake	7 386	0.18	1 762	0.04	1 332	0.03
Soy oilcake	413 443	11.07	364 882	8.70	473 184	11.05
Full fat soy	121 426	2.96	88 950	2.12	43 224	1.01
Cotton oilcake	44 939	1.09	38 044	0.91	47 724	1.11
Full fat cotton	6 768	0.16	4 692	0.11	3 912	0.09
Canola oilcake	7 514	0.18	6 490	0.15	3 252	0.08
Full fat canola			1 353	0.03	125	0
Total oilcake	816 934	19.90	785 630	18.74	790 203	18.64
Total maize products	2 268 560	55.27	2 344 042	55.91	2 501 004	58.42
Total fishmeal	70 540	1.72	14 402	2.73	116 148	2.71

Source: AFMA Chairman's Report 2001/2002 and 2002/2003
AFMA raw material usage April 2004 to March 2005.
* Note: total oilcake in Table 3 include all oilcake and not only specific oilcake items listed in Table 3.

Table 4

Fishmeal: local production and imports   (2002/2003-2004/2005) (April-March)

	Local (RSA + Namibia) Fishmeal production (ton)			Imported Fishmeal (ton)
Year	2002/2003	2003/2004	2004/2005	2002/2003	2003/2004	2004/2005
RSA	110 000	110 000	135 000
Namibia	13 000	12 000	12 000
Total	123 000	122 000	147 000	-40 012	5 000	-20 000

Source: AFMA; SA Fishmeal Marketing Company
2004/2005 – Estimate

Table 5

Oilcake: local production and imports   (2002/2003-2004/2005)

	Local Oilcake production (ton)			Imported Oilcake (ton)
Year	2002/2003	2003/2004	2004/2005	2002/2003	2003/2004	2004/2005
Oilcake
Groundnuts oilcake	8 132	8 025	8 025
Sunflower oilcake	293 328	296 814	296 814	14 112
Soy cake	7 440			562 552
– Full fat	112 560	72 256	72 256	22 800
– Beans
Cotton cake	16 781	13 041	13 041	88 921
– Full fat	1 485			24 474
Other				25 226
Canola	20 885	22 424	22 424
Lupins	11 700	4 800	4 800
Copra and Palm Kernel
Total	472 311	417 360	417 360	738 085	782 641	782 641

Source: AFMA Chairman's Report 2001/2002 and 2002/2003
2004/2005 – Estimate
The projected local production figures for soy and cotton reflect full fat and oilcake.

Table 6

Oilseed and Grain production in the RSA (ton)   (2000/2001-2004/2005 marketing season)

Crop	2000/2001	2001/2002	2002/2003	2003/2004	2004/2005
White maize	6 154 500	4 109 790	5 078 000	6 371 000	4 821 000
Yellow maize	3 986 440	3 115 350	3 386 000	3 019 000	3 090 500
Sorghum	352 450	175 580	208 000	219 700	270 820
Groundnuts	113 550	183 840	120 200	60 000	83 965
Sunflower	530 625	638 320	932 000	642 075	598 400
Soybeans	148 720	209 705	216 000	136 500	177 260
Cotton seed ¹	40 537	34 438	36 530	29 278	42 949
Wheat	2 122 440	2 492 880	2 320 745	1 428 150
Sweet lupins	17 360	16 338	11 700	4 040
Canola	26 549	25 750	37 975	40 770

Source: National Crop Estimates Committee; Final estimate for winter crops (19 March 2004) and fifth production estimate for summer crops for the 2004/2005 marketing year (21 June 2004).
SAGIS; ¹ Cotton South Africa

Table 7

Oilseed and Grain supply in the RSA (ton)   (2003/2004 marketing season)

Crop	Opening stock	Imports to RSA	Production	Total supply
White maize	1 718 000	0	6 371 000	8 089 000
Yellow maize	992 000	100 000	3 019 000	4 111 000
Sorghum	44 000	30 000	220 000	294 000
Groundnuts	40 300	18 000	60 000	118 300
Sunflower	283 000	2 000	642 000	927 000
Soybeans	105 300	25 000	137 000	267 300
Wheat	897 000	900 000	1 478 000	3 275 000
Canola	7 500	0	38 610	46 110

Source: Opening stock, import and production figures obtained from Grain South Africa.
Maize production figures differ from the NCEC figures as GSA includes early deliveries in their opening stocks.

Table 8

Area planted to Oilseed and Grain crops in the RSA   (1999/2000-2004/2005 production season)

	Ha Planted
Crop	1999/2000	2000/2001	2001/2002	2002/2003	2003/2004	2004/2005
White maize	2 003 000	1 596 005	1 721 580	2 234 350	1 727 600
Yellow maize	1 227 440	1 111 900	1 111 000	950 350	918 000
Sorghum	142 200	88 300	75 000	95 100	108 750
Groundnuts	82 600	165 250	94 160	49 850	62 300
Sunflower	396 350	521 695	645 510	605 750	526 125
Soybeans	93 787	134 150	124 150	100 150	116 760
Wheat	718 000	860 000	959 400	941 100	748 000	885 500
Sweet lupins	19 000	14 705	14 785	11 000	10 100	13 100
Canola	25 000	19 145	27 000	33 000	44 200	49 000

Source: National Crop Estimates Committee; Fifth area estimate for summer crops 2003/2004 production season (21 July 2004). Second intentions to plant for winter crops 2004/2005 production season (19 March 2004).

Table 9

Note on Marketing Season for Summer and Winter crops

Crops	Season
White maize	May-April
Yellow maize	May-April
Sorghum	April-March
Groundnuts	March-February
Sunflower	January-December
Soybeans	January-December
Wheat	October-September