Short and medium term requirements for and usage for fishmeal and oilcake
(updated May 2004)

Table 1

Fishmeal and Oilcake balance sheet   (2001/2002-2003/2004) (April-March)

	Fishmeal (ton)			Oilcake (ton)
Year	2001/2002	2002/2003	2003/2004	2001/2002	2002/2003	2003/2004
Requirements / Sales	118 414	82 988	127 000	1 149 224	1 210 396	1 200 000
Available / Produced	128 000	123 000	122 000	482 448	472 311	417 360
Shortage / Imports	-9 586	-40 012	5 000	666 776	738 085	782 640

2003/2004 – Estimate
Source: Fishing industry / AFMA Chairman's Report 2001/2002 and 2002/2003

Table 2

Fishmeal and Oilcake usage   (2001/2002-2003/2004) (April-March)

	Fishmeal (ton)			Oilcake (ton)
Year	2001/2002	2002/2003	2003/2004	2001/2002	2002/2003	2003/2004
AFMA Members	100 652	70 540	116 422	796 977	816 934	782 871
Non-AFMA Members	17 762	12 448	10 578	352 247	393 462	417 129
Total	118 414	82 988	127 000	1 149 224	1 210 396	1 200 000

Source: AFMA Chairman's Report 2001/2002 and 2002/2003
2003/2004 – Estimate
Non-AMFA members figures can also include unused stocks.

Table 3

The Main Raw Material usage by AFMA-members   (2001/2002-2003/2004) (April-March)

	Total (ton)	Inclusion rate (%)	Total (ton)	Inclusion rate (%)	Total (ton)	Inclusion rate (%)
Raw Materials	2001/2002		2002/2003		2003/2004
Sunflower oilcake	232 460	5.71	212 359	5.18	285 487	6.82
Groundnuts oilcake	4 942	0.12	7 386	0.18	2 113	0.05
Soy oilcake	368 054	9.06	413 443	11.07	339 806	8.12
Full fat soy	127 492	3.18	121 426	2.96	96 614	2.36
Cotton oilcake	43 216	1.03	44 939	1.09	37 742	0.90
Full fat cotton	10 525	0.26	6 768	0.16	4 816	0.12
Canola oilcake	8 347	0.15	7 514	0.18	7 052	0.17
Full fat canola					924	0.02
Total oilcake	796 977	19.53	816 934	19.90	782 871	18.71
Total maize products	2 227 979	55.58	2 268 560	55.27	2 322 739	55.51
Total fishmeal	100 652	2.48	70 540	1.72	116 422	2.78

Source: AFMA Chairman's Report 2001/2002 and 2002/2003
AFMA raw material usage April 2003 to March 2004.
* Note: total oilcake in Table 3 include all oilcake and not only specific oilcake items listed in Table 3.

Table 4

Fishmeal: local production and imports   (2001/2002-2003/2004) (April-March)

	Local (RSA + Namibia) Fishmeal production (ton)			Imported Fishmeal (ton)
Year	2001/2002	2002/2003	2003/2004	2001/2002	2002/2003	2003/2004
RSA	115 000	110 000	110 000
Namibia	13 000	13 000	12 000
Total	128 000	123 000	122 000	-9 586	-40 012	5 000

Source: AFMA; SA Fishmeal Marketing Company
2003/2004 – Estimate

Table 5

Oilcake: local production and imports   (2001/2002-2003/2004)

	Local Oilcake production (ton)			Imported Oilcake (ton)
Year	2001/2002	2002/2003	2003/2004	2001/2002	2002/2003	2003/2004
Oilcake
Groundnuts oilcake	7 437	8 132	8 025
Sunflower oilcake	271 740	293 328	296 814	67 151	14 112
Soy cake	38 445	7 440		459 266	562 552
– Full fat	103 075	112 560	72 256	15 807	22 800
– Beans
Cotton cake	25 945	16 781	13 041	91 025	88 921
– Full fat	5 306	1 485		24 565	24 474
Other				8 610	25 226
Canola	14 162	20 885	22 424
Lupins	16 338	11 700	4 800
Copra and Palm Kernel				352
Total	482 448	472 311	417 360	666 776	738 085	782 641

Source: AFMA Chairman's Report 2001/2002 and 2002/2003
2003/2004 – Estimate
The projected local production figures for soy and cotton reflect full fat and oilcake.

Table 6

Oilseed and Grain production in the RSA (ton)   (2000/2001-2004/2005 marketing season)

Crop	2000/2001	2001/2002	2002/2003	2003/2004	2004/2005
White maize	6 154 500	4 109 790	5 078 000	6 371 000	4 555 700
Yellow maize	3 986 440	3 115 350	3 386 000	3 019 000	2 892 500
Sorghum	352 450	175 580	208 000	219 700	243 320
Groundnuts	113 550	183 840	120 200	60 000	80 656
Sunflower	530 625	638 320	932 000	642 075	588 150
Soybeans	148 720	209 705	216 000	136 500	163 285
Cotton seed ¹	40 537	34 438	36 530	29 278	44 156
Wheat	2 122 440	2 492 880	2 320 745	1 428 150
Sweet lupins	17 360	16 338	11 700	4 040
Canola	26 549	25 750	37 975	40 770

Source: National Crop Estimates Committee; Final estimate for winter crops (19 March 2004) and second production estimate for summer crops for the 2004/2005 marketing year (19 March 2004).
SAGIS; ¹ Cotton South Africa

Table 7

Oilseed and Grain supply in the RSA (ton)   (2003/2004 marketing season)

Crop	Opening stock	Imports to RSA	Production	Total supply
White maize	1 718 000	0	6 371 000	8 089 000
Yellow maize	992 000	100 000	3 019 000	4 111 000
Sorghum	44 000	30 000	220 000	294 000
Groundnuts	40 300	18 000	60 000	118 300
Sunflower	283 000	2 000	642 000	927 000
Soybeans	105 300	25 000	137 000	267 300
Wheat	897 000	900 000	1 478 000	3 275 000
Canola	7 500	0	38 610	46 110

Source: Opening stock, import and production figures obtained from Grain South Africa.
Maize production figures differ from the NCEC figures as GSA includes early deliveries in their opening stocks.

Table 8

Area planted to Oilseed and Grain crops in the RSA   (1998/1999-2003/2004 production season)

	Ha Planted
Crop	1998/1999	1999/2000	2000/2001	2001/2002	2002/2003	2003/2004
White maize	2 003 000	1 596 005	1 721 580	2 234 350	1 727 600
Yellow maize	1 227 440	1 111 900	1 111 000	950 350	918 000
Sorghum	142 200	88 300	75 000	95 100	108 750
Groundnuts	82 600	165 250	94 160	49 850	62 300
Sunflower	396 350	521 695	645 510	605 750	526 125
Soybeans	93 787	134 150	124 150	100 150	116 760
Wheat	718 000	860 000	959 400	941 100	748 000	851 200
Sweet lupins	19 000	14 705	14 785	11 000	10 100	10 000
Canola	25 000	19 145	27 000	33 000	44 200	49 000

Source: National Crop Estimates Committee; Second area estimate for summer crops 2003/2004 production season (19 march 2004). First intentions to plant for winter crops 2004/2005 production season (19 March 2004).

Table 9

Note on Marketing Season for Summer and Winter crops

Crops	Season
White maize	May-April
Yellow maize	May-April
Sorghum	April-March
Groundnuts	March-February
Sunflower	January-December
Soybeans	January-December
Wheat	October-September