Index of 10 May
Estimates courtecy of the Crop Estimates Committee
Syfers deur die Oesskattingskomitee verskaf
At a meeting held on 10 May 2018, the Crop Estimates Liaison Committee (CELC) oversaw the process for the finalisation of the crop production figures of commercial wheat, malting barley and canola for 2017.
The estimated total production figures as released by the national Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) were revised, using the published figures of the South Africa Grain Information Services (SAGIS) of actual deliveries as the basis for the calculations. The figures from the wheat utilisation survey to determine on-farm usage and retentions, which was conducted by the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF), were added to the SAGIS delivery figures to calculate the final crop production figures.
Comparing the final calculated crop figures with the numbers set by the CEC during February 2018, the size of the commercial wheat crop is now 1 535 000 tons, which is 10 250 tons or 0,67% more than the final crop estimate figure of 1 524 750 tons. For malting barley the recalculated crop size is 307 000 tons, which is 64 tons or 0,02% less than the final crop estimate figure of 307 064 tons. The final recalculated canola crop estimate figure is 93 500 tons, which is slightly higher (32 tons or 0,03%) than the final crop estimate figure of 93 468 tons.
CELC accepted the final recalculated crop production figures for 2017 (please refer to the figures in the accompanying tables).
The CEC would like to thank all producers and industry role-players who provided information on a regular basis to improve the accuracy of the crop estimates. Producers, who do not participate in the Department's monthly survey, are requested as a matter of urgency to make an effort to contribute to the crop estimates process.
|Crop||Final area planted||Final crop||CEC area planted ¹||CEC final estimate ¹||Final crop vs
|(A)||(B)||(C)||(D)||(B) ÷ (D)|
|Wheat||491 600||1 535 000||491 600||1 524 750||+0.67|
|Malting barley||91 380||307 000||91 380||307 064||-0.03|
|Canola||84 000||93 500||84 000||93 468||+0.03|
|Crop||Producer deliveries reported by SAGIS ¹||Estimated future deliveries|
|Final crop||October 2017 to March 2018||April to September 2018||Retentions on farms for own use|
|Wheat||1 535 000||1 477 448||27 552||30 000 ²|
|Malting barley||307 000||304 397||1 103||1 500|
|Canola||93 500||92 674||726||100|
¹ SAGIS deliveries relate to the current crop.
² Based on a survey undertaken by the Directorate: Statistics and Economic Analysis of the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries.