Statistics & Estimates / Crop Estimates / 15 February 2018

Final area planted and crop production figures of commercial maize, sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts and sorghum for 2017

At a meeting held on 15 February 2018, the Crop Estimates Liaison Committee (CELC) oversaw the process for the finalisation of the crop production figures of commercial white and yellow maize, sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts and sorghum for 2017.

The estimated total production figures as released by the national Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) were revised, using the published figures of the South Africa Grain Information Services (SAGIS) of actual deliveries as the basis for the calculations. The figures from the maize utilisation survey to determine on-farm usage and retentions, which was conducted by the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF) and the telephonic survey conducted by the National Crop Statistics Consortium (NCSC), were added to the SAGIS delivery figures to calculate the final crop production figures.

Comparing the final calculated crop figures with the numbers set by the CEC during September 2017, the size of the commercial maize crop is now 16,820 million tons, which is 0,45% or 76 000 tons more than the final crop estimate figure of 16,744 million tons. For white maize, the recalculated crop size is 9,916 million tons, which is 0,24% or 23 250 tons higher than the final crop estimate figure, and for yellow maize the recalculated crop size is 6,904 million tons, which is 0,77% or 52 750 tons more than the final crop estimate figure.

In the case of the commercial sunflower seed crop, the final calculated crop figure is now 874 000 tons, a decrease of 595 tons or 0,07% compared to the final crop estimate figure. The sorghum crop were adjusted upward by 0,44% (or 665 tons). The soybeans crop was slightly adjusted downward, from 1 316 370 tons to 1 316 000 tons, which is 0,03% or 370 tons less. The groundnuts crop remained unchanged at 92 050 tons.

CELC accepted the final recalculated crop production figures for 2017 (please refer to the figures in the accompanying tables).

The CEC would like to thank all producers and industry role-players who provided information on a regular basis to improve the accuracy of the crop estimates. Producers, who do not participate in the Department's monthly survey, are requested as a matter of urgency to make an effort to contribute to the crop estimates process.

Final area planted and crop production figures of commercial summer crops for 2017
Summary
Crop Final area planted Final crop CEC area planted CEC final estimate ¹ Final crop vs Final estimate
2017 2017 September 2017 September 2017
Ha Tons Ha Tons %
(A) (B) (C) (D) (B) ÷ (D)
  White maize 1 643 100 9 916 000 1 643 100 9 892 750 +0.24
  Yellow maize 985 500 6 904 000 985 500 6 851 250 +0.77
Total Maize 2 628 600 16 820 000 2 628 600 16 744 000 +0.45
Sunflower seed 635 750 874 000 635 750 874 595 -0.07
Soybeans 573 950 1 316 000 573 950 1 316 370 -0.03
Groundnuts 56 000 92 050 56 000 92 050 -
Sorghum 42 350 152 000 42 350 151 335 +0.44

¹   As estimated by the CEC on 28 September 2017

Commercial maize, sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts and sorghum
Calculation summary
Crop Total Producer deliveries reported by SAGIS ² Projected deliveries ³ On-farm for own use / direct sales, etc.
Mar-Dec 2017 Jan-Feb 2018
Tons Tons Tons Tons
White maize 9 916 000 9 545 530 141 470 229 000
Northern Cape / Noord-Kaap 6 904 000 6 447 695 104 305 352 000
Total maize 16 820 000 15 993 225 245 775 581 000
Sorghum 152 000 148 687 813 2 500
Sunflower seed 874 000 866 955 7 045 -
Soybeans 1 316 000 1 279 302 9 698 27 000
Groundnuts 92 050 90 889 411 750

²   SAGIS producer deliveries relates to the current crop.

³   Projected deliveries for maize are based on the weekly producer deliveries (2 January 2018 to 9 February 2018), as recorded by SAGIS and for sorghum, sunflower seed, soybeans and groundnuts on the historic trend of producer deliveries, as recorded by SAGIS.