The final area planted and crop production figures of winter cereals for the 2023 production season

At a meeting held on 9 May 2024, the Crop Estimates Liaison Committee (CELC) oversaw the process for the finalisation of the crop production figures of commercial wheat, barley, canola and oats for 2023.

The estimated total production figures as released by the national Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) were revised, using the published figures of the South Africa Grain Information Services (SAGIS) of actual deliveries as the basis for the calculations. The figures from the wheat utilisation survey to determine on-farm usage and retentions, which was conducted by the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development (DALRRD), were added to the SAGIS delivery figures to calculate the final crop production figures.

Comparing the final calculated crop figures with the numbers set by the CEC during February 2024, the size of the commercial wheat crop is now 2 050 000 tons, which is 28 025 tons or 1,35% less than the final crop estimate figure of 2 078 025 tons. For barley the recalculated crop size is 377 000 tons, which is 805 tons or 0,21% more than the final crop estimate figure of 376 195 tons. The final recalculated canola crop estimate figure is 236 300 tons, which is slightly lower (1 150 tons or 0,48%) than the final crop estimate figure of 237 450 tons. The final recalculated oats crop estimate figure is 41 000 tons, which is 750 tons or 1,86% higher than the final crop estimate figure of 40 250 tons.

CELC accepted the final recalculated crop production figures for 2023 (please refer to the figures in the accompanying tables).

The CEC would like to thank all producers and industry role-players who provided information on a regular basis to improve the accuracy of the crop estimates. Producers, who do not participate in the Department's monthly survey, are requested as a matter of urgency to make an effort to contribute to the crop estimates process.

Winter cereals / Wintergewasse
Final area planted and crop figures of winter cereals for the 2023 production season
Crop Final area planted Final crop CEC Area planted ¹ CEC final estimate ¹ Final crop vs Final estimate
Ha Tons Ha Tons %
(A) (B) (C) (D) (B) ÷ (D)
Wheat 537 950 1 050 000 537 950 2 078 025 -1.35
Barley 107 600 377 000 107 600 376 195 0.21
Canola 131 200 236 300 131 200 237 450 -0.48
Oats 27 500 41 000 27 500 40 250 1.86

¹  As estimated by the CEC on 28 February 2024.

Winter cereals / Wintergewasse
The calculation of the final winter cereal crops for the 2023 production season is as follows:
Crop Final crop Producer deliveries reported by SAGIS ¹
(Oct 2023 to Mar 2024)
Estimated future deliveries
(Apr to Sep 2024)
Retentions on farms for own use/seed ²
Tons
Wheat 2 050 000 1 940 207 69 793 40 000
Barley 377 000 373 656 2 344 1 000
Canola 236 300 235 615 85 600
Oats 41 000 39 436 1 564 0

¹  SAGIS producer deliveries relate to the current crop.

²  Based on a survey undertaken by the Directorate: Statistics and Economic Analysis of the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development.

Wheat deviation
Final estimate vs the Final crop (2004-2023)
Graph of wheat production for the Western Cape from 2010 to 2024