2018 Income and Cost Budgets

Southern Cape – dryland

Income and cost budgets for wheat, barley, canola, oats and lupins for Southern Cape (Riversdal/Albertinia region)
Area Southern Cape: Riversdal/Albertinia
Crop Wheat Barley Canola Oats Lupins
Production system Dryland

1. Income
Yield: deterministic Ton/ha 2.70 2.80 1.50 2.25 1.90
SAFEX simulated / derived price: 2018 R/ton 3 813 3 813 4 613 2 900 3 250
Total deductions R/ton 726 709 4 – –
– Transport differential R/ton 560 560 – – –
– Grade differential R/ton 60 96 – – –
– Marketing, handling and statutory levies R/ton 107 53 4 – –
Price premiums / Canola back-payment (10% of contracted price) R/ton – 75 461 – –
Net farm gate price R/ton 3 087 3 084 5 070 2 900 3 250
Gross income R/ha R8 335 R8 635 R7 605 R6 525 R6 175

2. Variable expenditures
Contracting R/ha – – – – –
Crop insurance R/ha 23 28 25 22 20
Fertilizer R/ha 1 415 1 415 1 550 1 370 823
Lime R/ha 85 85 85 85 85
Seed R/ha 892 446 695 403 858
Fuel R/ha 433 441 441 431 413
Herbicide R/ha 1 465 1 303 1 020 625 933
Insecticide R/ha 260 112 629 106 130
Fungicides R/ha 602 1 121 439 610 224
Marketing costs R/ha 37 47 13 – –
Repairs and maintenance R/ha 612 649 625 612 536
Casual labour R/ha 13 13 13 13 13
Aerial spray R/ha – – – – –
Other expenditure R/ha – – – – –
Total variable expenditure R/ha R5 836 R5 662 R5 535 R4 276 R4 035
Total variable expenditure R/ton R2 162 R2 022 R3 690 R1 900 R2 124
3.1 Gross margin R/ha R2 499 R2 974 R2 070 R2 249 R2 140
3.2 Gross margin R/ton R925 R1 062 R1 380 R1 000 R1 126
Source: SSK, GSA and BFAP, 2018.
Gross margin comparison – Baseline: Southern Cape (Caledon region)
Gross margin comparison – Baseline: Southern Cape (Riversdal/Albertinia region)

Gross margin per hectare: Southern Cape – Riversdal/Albertinia

Wheat sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.70 3.00 3.25 3.50
R2 087 -1 662 -1 141 -619 -201 425 946 1 468
R2 337 -1 162 -578 6 474 1 175 1 759 2 343
R2 587 -662 -16 631 1 149 1 925 2 571 3 218
R2 837 -162 547 1 256 1 824 2 675 3 384 4 093
R3 087 338 1 109 1 881 2 499 3 425 4 196 4 968
R3 337 838 1 672 2 506 3 174 4 175 5 009 5 843
R3 587 1 338 2 234 3 131 3 849 4 925 5 821 6 718
R3 837 1 838 2 797 3 756 4 524 5 675 6 634 7 593
R4 087 2 338 3 359 4 381 5 199 6 425 7 446 8 468
Barley sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.80 3.00 3.25 3.50
R2 084 -1 494 -973 -452 174 591 1 112 1 633
R2 334 -994 -410 173 874 1 341 1 924 2 508
R2 584 -494 152 798 1 574 2 091 2 737 3 383
R2 834 6 715 1 423 2 274 2 841 3 549 4 258
R3 084 506 1 277 2 048 2 974 3 591 4 362 5 133
R3 334 1 006 1 840 2 673 3 674 4 341 5 174 6 008
R3 584 1 506 2 402 3 298 4 374 5 091 5 987 6 883
R3 834 2 006 2 965 3 923 5 074 5 841 6 799 7 758
R4 084 2 506 3 527 4 548 5 774 6 591 7 612 8 633
Canola sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25
R4 070 -2 483 -1 465 -448 570 1 587 2 605 3 622
R4 320 -2 295 -1 215 -135 945 2 025 3 105 4 185
R4 570 -2 108 -965 177 1 320 2 462 3 605 4 747
R4 820 -1 920 -715 490 1 695 2 900 4 105 5 310
R5 070 -1 733 -465 802 2 070 3 337 4 605 5 872
R5 320 -1 545 -215 1 115 2 445 3 775 5 105 6 435
R5 570 -1 358 35 1 427 2 820 4 212 5 605 6 997
R5 820 -1 170 285 1 740 3 195 4 650 6 105 7 560
R6 070 -983 535 2 052 3 570 5 087 6 605 8 122
Canola margin above/below wheat
Yield Price (R/ton)
R4 320 R4 570 R4 820 R5 070 R5 320 R5 570 R5 820
0.50 -5 874 -5 749 -5 624 -5 499 -5 374 -5 249 -5 124
0.75 -4 794 -4 606 -4 419 -4 231 -4 044 -3 856 -3 669
1.00 -3 714 -3 464 -4 214 -2 964 -2 714 -2 464 -2 214
1.25 -2 634 -2 321 -2 009 -1 696 -1 384 -1 071 -759
1.50 -1 554 -1 179 -804 -429 -54 321 696
1.75 -474 -36 401 839 1 276 1 714 2 151
2.00 606 1 106 1 606 2 106 2 606 3 106 3 606
2.25 1 686 2 249 2 811 3 374 3 936 4 499 5 061
2.50 2 766 3 391 4 016 4 641 5 266 5 891 6 516

Notes

  • The cost items reflect the input allocation based on the target yield for the respective crops.
  • Although some expenditure items are zero, it is reflected in the budgets to allow for individual inclusion.
  • The cost of fuel includes pre-harvest and harvesting costs with the assumption that own machinery is used.
  • The costs for wheat, barley and oats seeds reflect a combination of own and purchased seed.
  • It is important to note that overhead costs are not included and should be accounted for.
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