WINTER CROPS  //  2023 Income and Cost Budgets

Free State – dryland

Income and cost budgets for wheat for Eastern and Central Free State
Area Eastern Free State Central Free State
Crop Wheat Wheat
Production system Dryland

1. Income

Yield: deterministic Ton/ha 2.50 2.50
SAFEX simulated / derived price: 2023 R/ton 6 526 6 526
Total deductions R/ton 830 813
– Transport differential R/ton 370 353
– Grade differential R/ton 373 373
– Marketing, handling and statutory levies R/ton 86 86
Price premiums / Canola back-payment (10% of contracted price) R/ton
Net farm gate price R/ton 5 697 5 714
Gross income R/ha R14 242 R14 284

2. Variable expenditures

Contracting R/ha 901 901
Crop insurance R/ha 441 1 143
Fertilizer R/ha 3 261 2 864
Lime R/ha 499 617
Seed R/ha 662 662
Fuel R/ha 970 1 375
Herbicide R/ha 697 682
Insecticide R/ha 119 241
Fungicides R/ha
Marketing costs R/ha 48 48
Repairs and maintenance R/ha 788 788
Casual labour R/ha
Aerial spray R/ha
Other expenditure R/ha 19
Total variable expenditure R/ha R8 404 R9 319
Total variable expenditure R/ton R3 362 R3 728
3.1 Gross margin R/ha R5 837 R4 965
3.2 Gross margin R/ton R2 335 R1 986
Break-even yield T/ha 1.48 1.63
Break-even price R/ton R3 362 R3 728
Source: VKB, GSA and BFAP, updated April 2023.
Gross margin comparison – Baseline: Free State (Eastern and Central regions)
Graph showing baseline gross margin comparison of the Free State

Gross margin per hectare: Central Free State

Wheat sensitivity analysis: Eastern Free State
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25
R4 697 -185 989 2 163 3 337 4 511 5 686 6 860
R4 947 252 1 489 2 726 3 962 5 199 6 436 7 672
R5 197 690 1 989 3 288 4 587 5 886 7 186 8 485
R5 447 1 127 2 489 3 851 5 212 6 574 7 936 9 297
R5 697 1 656 2 989 4 413 5 837 7 261 8 686 10 110
R5 947 2 002 3 489 4 976 6 462 7 949 9 436 10 922
R6 197 2 440 3 989 5 538 7 087 8 636 10 186 11 735
R6 447 2 877 4 489 6 101 7 712 9 324 10 936 12 547
R6 697 3 315 4 989 6 663 8 337 10 011 11 686 13 360
Wheat sensitivity analysis: Eastern Free State
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25
R4 714 -1 070 108 1 287 2 465 3 644 4 822 6 000
R4 964 -633 608 1 849 3 090 4 331 5 572 6 813
R5 214 -195 1 108 2 412 3 715 5 019 6 322 7 625
R5 464 242 1 608 2 974 4 340 5 706 7 072 8 438
R5 714 680 2 108 3 537 4 965 6 394 7 822 9 250
R5 964 1 117 2 608 4 099 5 590 7 081 8 572 10 063
R6 214 1 555 3 108 4 662 6 215 7 769 9 322 10 875
R6 464 1 992 3 608 5 224 6 840 8 456 10 072 11 688
R6 714 2 430 4 108 5 787 7 465 9 144 10 822 12 500

Notes

  • The cost items reflect the input allocation based on the target yield for the respective crops.
  • Although some expenditure items are zero, it is reflected in the budgets to allow for individual inclusion.
  • The cost of fuel includes pre-harvest and harvesting costs with the assumption that own machinery is used.
  • The costs for wheat, barley and oats seeds reflect a combination of own and purchased seed.
  • It is important to note that overhead costs are not included and should be accounted for. Overhead costs such as interest on production loans, labour, management and administration will vary to a large extent from producer to producer. Producers will therefore have to deduct the farm business' overhead cost from the gross margins as stipulated in the tables and figures to calculate the net income per crop.
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