WINTER CROPS  //  2023 Income and Cost Budgets

Southern Cape – dryland

Income and cost budgets for wheat, barley, canola, oats and lupins for Southern Cape (Eastern Rûens – high potential regions)
Area Southern Cape: Eastern Rûens (high potential)
Crop Wheat Barley Canola Oats Lupins
Production system Dryland

1. Income

Yield: deterministic Ton/ha 3.00 3.00 2.00 2.50 1.70
SAFEX simulated / derived price: 2023 R/ton 6 526 6 526 8 205 6 526 5 792
Total deductions R/ton 1 037 995 27 865 134
– Transport differential R/ton 750 750 832 99
– Grade differential R/ton 186 172
– Marketing, handling and statutory levies R/ton 100 73 27 33 35
Price premiums / Canola back-payment (10% of contracted price) R/ton 67 821
Net farm gate price R/ton 5 490 5 430 8 999 5 661 5 658
Gross income R/ha R16 469 R16 291 R17 998 R14 153 R9 619

2. Variable expenditures

Contracting R/ha
Crop insurance R/ha 47 47 52 41
Fertilizer R/ha 3 480 3 415 4 096 3 003 1 508
Lime R/ha 232 232 232 194
Seed R/ha 751 601 1 352 795 1 055
Fuel R/ha 799 816 802 785 724
Herbicide R/ha 1 466 1 115 1 171 977 907
Insecticide R/ha 385 251 573 172 187
Fungicides R/ha 836 1 100 726 446 501
Marketing costs R/ha 71 97 39
Repairs and maintenance R/ha 812 812 862 812 812
Casual labour R/ha 22 23 24 22 18
Aerial spray R/ha
Other expenditure R/ha 154 156 146 37 37
Total variable expenditure R/ha R9 054 R8 666 R10 074 R7 285 R5 750
Total variable expenditure R/ton R3 018 R2 889 R5 037 R2 914 R3 382
3.1 Gross margin R/ha R7 415 R7 625 R7 924 R6 868 R3 869
3.2 Gross margin R/ton R2 472 R2 542 R3 962 R2 747 R2 276
Break-even yield T/ha 1.65 1.60 1.12 1.29 1.02
Break-even price R/ton R3 018 R2 889 R5 037 R2 914 R3 382
Source: SSK, GSA and BFAP, updated April 2023.
Gross margin comparison – Baseline: Southern Cape (Eastern Rûens – high potential)
Gross margin comparison – Baseline: Southern Cape (Eastern Ruens - high potential region)

Gross margin per hectare: Southern Cape – Eastern Rûens (high potential)

Wheat sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75
R4 490 1 047 2 170 3 292 4 415 5 537 6 659 7 782
R4 740 1 610 2 795 3 980 5 165 6 350 7 534 8 719
R4 990 2 172 3 420 4 667 5 915 7 162 8 409 9 657
R5 240 2 735 4 045 5 355 6 665 7 975 9 284 10 594
R5 490 3 297 4 670 6 042 7 415 8 787 10 159 11 532
R5 740 3 860 5 295 6 730 8 165 9 600 11 034 12 469
R5 990 4 422 5 920 7 417 8 915 10 412 11 909 13 407
R6 240 4 985 6 545 8 105 9 665 11 225 12 784 14 344
R6 490 5 547 7 170 8 792 10 415 12 037 13 659 15 282
Barley sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75
R4 430 1 302 2 410 3 517 4 625 5 733 6 840 7 948
R4 680 1 865 3 035 4 205 5 375 6 545 7 715 8 885
R4 930 2 427 3 660 4 892 6 125 7 358 8 590 9 823
R5 180 2 990 4 285 5 580 6 875 8 170 9 465 10 760
R5 430 3 552 4 910 6 267 7 625 8 983 10 340 11 698
R5 680 4 115 5 535 6 955 8 375 9 795 11 215 12 635
R5 930 4 677 6 160 7 642 9 125 10 608 12 090 13 573
R6 180 5 240 6 785 8 330 9 875 11 420 12 965 14 510
R6 430 5 802 7 410 9 017 10 625 12 233 13 840 15 448
Canola sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75
R7 999 -76 1 924 3 924 5 924 7 923 9 923 11 923
R8 249 237 2 299 4 361 6 424 8 486 10 548 12 610
R8 499 549 2 674 4 799 6 924 9 048 11 173 13 298
R8 749 862 3 049 5 236 7 424 9 611 11 798 13 985
R8 999 1 174 3 424 5 674 7 924 10 173 12 423 14 673
R9 249 1 487 3 799 6 111 8 424 10 736 13 048 15 360
R9 499 1 799 4 174 6 549 8 924 11 298 13 673 16 048
R9 749 2 112 4 549 6 986 9 424 11 861 14 298 16 735
R9 999 2 424 4 924 7 424 9 924 12 423 14 923 17 423
Canola margin above/below wheat
Yield Price (R/ton)
R8 249 R8 499 R8 749 R8 999 R9 249 R9 499 R9 749
1.00 -9 240 -8 990 -8 740 -8 490 -8 240 -7 990 -7 740
1.25 -7 178 -6 865 -6 553 -6 240 -5 928 -5 615 -5 303
1.50 -5 116 -4 741 -4 366 -3 991 -3 616 -3 241 -2 866
1.75 -3 053 -2 616 -2 178 -1 741 -1 303 -866 -428
2.00 -991 -491 9 509 1 009 1 509 2 009
2.25 1 071 1 634 2 196 2 759 3 321 3 884 4 446
2.50 3 133 3 758 4 383 5 008 5 633 6 258 6 883
2.75 5 196 5 883 6 571 7 258 7 946 8 633 9 321
3.00 7 258 8 008 8 758 9 508 10 258 11 008 11 758

Notes

  • The cost items reflect the input allocation based on the target yield for the respective crops.
  • Although some expenditure items are zero, it is reflected in the budgets to allow for individual inclusion.
  • The cost of fuel includes pre-harvest and harvesting costs with the assumption that own machinery is used.
  • The costs for wheat, barley and oats seeds reflect a combination of own and purchased seed.
  • It is important to note that overhead costs are not included and should be accounted for. Overhead costs such as interest on production loans, labour, management and administration will vary to a large extent from producer to producer. Producers will therefore have to deduct the farm business' overhead cost from the gross margins as stipulated in the tables and figures to calculate the net income per crop.
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