WINTER CROPS  //  2023 Income and Cost Budgets

Southern Cape – dryland

Income and cost budgets for wheat, barley, canola, oats and lupins for Southern Cape (Eastern Rûens – normal potential regions)
Area Southern Cape: Eastern Rûens (normal potential)
Crop Wheat Barley Canola Oats Lupins
Production system Dryland

1. Income

Yield: deterministic Ton/ha 2.50 2.50 1.65 2.20 1.50
SAFEX simulated / derived price: 2023 R/ton 6 526 6 526 8 205 6 526 5 792
Total deductions R/ton 1 037 995 27 865 134
– Transport differential R/ton 750 750 832 99
– Grade differential R/ton 186 172
– Marketing, handling and statutory levies R/ton 100 73 27 33 35
Price premiums / Canola back-payment (10% of contracted price) R/ton 67 821
Net farm gate price R/ton 5 490 5 430 8 999 5 661 5 658
Gross income R/ha R13 724 R13 576 R14 848 R12 545 R8 487

2. Variable expenditures

Contracting R/ha
Crop insurance R/ha 39 39 43 36
Fertilizer R/ha 2 886 2 728 3 838 2 304 1 277
Lime R/ha 232 232 232 194
Seed R/ha 643 413 1 244 723 904
Fuel R/ha 777 794 791 772 715
Herbicide R/ha 1 427 1 090 1 151 950 890
Insecticide R/ha 383 214 545 161 165
Fungicides R/ha 821 1 059 679 415 412
Marketing costs R/ha 59 81 32
Repairs and maintenance R/ha 761 745 796 745 745
Casual labour R/ha 20 20 22 20 18
Aerial spray R/ha
Other expenditure R/ha 154 156 146 37 37
Total variable expenditure R/ha R8 202 R7 570 R9 519 R6 356 R5 164
Total variable expenditure R/ton R3 281 R3 028 R5 769 R2 889 R3 442
3.1 Gross margin R/ha R5 522 R6 006 R5 329 R6 098 R3 323
3.2 Gross margin R/ton R2 209 R2 402 R3 230 R2 772 R2 216
Break-even yield T/ha 1.49 1.39 1.06 1.12 0.91
Break-even price R/ton R3 281 R3 028 R5 769 R2 889 R3 442
Source: SSK, GSA and BFAP, updated April 2023.
Gross margin comparison – Baseline: Southern Cape (Eastern Rûens – normal potential)
Gross margin comparison – Baseline: Southern Cape (Eastern Ruens - normal potential region)

Gross margin per hectare: Southern Cape – Eastern Rûens (normal potential)

Wheat sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25
R4 490 -345 777 1 900 3 022 4 144 5 267 6 389
R4 740 92 1 277 2 462 3 647 4 832 6 017 7 202
R4 990 530 1 777 3 025 4 272 5 519 6 767 8 014
R5 240 967 2 277 3 587 4 897 6 207 7 517 8 827
R5 490 1 405 2 777 4 150 5 522 6 894 8 267 9 639
R5 740 1 842 3 277 4 712 6 147 7 582 9 017 10 452
R5 990 2 280 3 777 5 275 6 772 8 269 9 767 11 264
R6 240 2 717 4 277 5 837 7 397 8 957 10 517 12 077
R6 490 3 155 4 777 6 400 8 022 9 644 11 267 12 889
Barley sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25
R4 430 183 1 291 2 398 3 506 4 613 5 721 6 829
R4 680 620 1 791 2 961 4 131 5 301 6 471 7 641
R4 930 1 058 2 291 3 523 4 756 5 988 7 221 8 454
R5 180 1 495 2 791 4 086 5 381 6 676 7 971 9 266
R5 430 1 933 3 291 4 648 6 006 7 363 8 721 10 079
R5 680 2 370 3 791 5 211 6 631 8 051 9 471 10 891
R5 930 2 808 4 291 5 773 7 256 8 738 10 221 11 704
R6 180 3 245 4 791 6 336 7 881 9 426 10 971 12 516
R6 430 3 683 5 291 6 898 8 506 10 113 11 721 13 329
Canola sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 0.90 1.15 1.40 1.65 1.90 2.15 2.40
R7 999 -2 320 -320 1 680 3 679 5 679 7 679 9 678
R8 249 -2 095 -33 2 030 4 092 6 154 8 216 10 278
R8 499 -1 870 255 2 380 4 504 6 629 8 754 10 878
R8 749 -1 645 542 2 730 4 917 7 104 9 291 11 478
R8 999 -1 420 830 3 080 5 329 7 579 9 829 12 078
R9 249 -1 195 1 117 3 430 5 742 8 054 10 366 12 678
R9 499 -970 1 405 3 780 6 154 8 529 10 904 13 278
R9 749 -745 1 692 4 130 6 567 9 004 11 441 13 878
R9 999 -520 1 980 4 480 6 979 9 479 11 979 14 478
Canola margin above/below wheat
Yield Price (R/ton)
R8 249 R8 499 R8 749 R8 999 R9 249 R9 499 R9 749
0.65 -9 679 -9 517 -9 354 -9 192 -9 029 -8 867 -8 704
0.90 -7 617 -7 392 -7 167 -6 942 -6 717 -6 492 -6 267
1.15 -5 555 -5 267 -4 980 -4 692 -4 405 -4 117 -3 830
1.40 -3 493 -3 143 -2 793 -2 443 -2 093 -1 743 -1 393
1.65 -1 430 -1 018 -605 -193 220 632 1 045
1.90 632 1 107 1 582 2 057 2 532 3 007 3 482
2.15 2 694 3 232 3 769 4 307 4 844 5 382 5 919
2.40 4 756 5 356 5 956 6 556 7 156 7 756 8 356
2.65 6 819 7 481 8 144 8 806 9 469 10 131 10 794

Notes

  • The cost items reflect the input allocation based on the target yield for the respective crops.
  • Although some expenditure items are zero, it is reflected in the budgets to allow for individual inclusion.
  • The cost of fuel includes pre-harvest and harvesting costs with the assumption that own machinery is used.
  • The costs for wheat, barley and oats seeds reflect a combination of own and purchased seed.
  • It is important to note that overhead costs are not included and should be accounted for. Overhead costs such as interest on production loans, labour, management and administration will vary to a large extent from producer to producer. Producers will therefore have to deduct the farm business' overhead cost from the gross margins as stipulated in the tables and figures to calculate the net income per crop.
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