WINTER CROPS  //  2023 Income and Cost Budgets

Southern Cape – dryland

Income and cost budgets for wheat, barley, canola, oats and lupins for Southern Cape (Eastern Rûens – low potential regions)
Area Southern Cape: Eastern Rûens (low potential)
Crop Wheat Barley Canola Oats Lupins
Production system Dryland

1. Income

Yield: deterministic Ton/ha 2.20 2.20 1.50 1.50 1.40
SAFEX simulated / derived price: 2023 R/ton 6 526 6 526 8 205 6 526 5 792
Total deductions R/ton 1 037 995 27 865 134
– Transport differential R/ton 750 750 832 99
– Grade differential R/ton 186 172
– Marketing, handling and statutory levies R/ton 100 73 27 33 35
Price premiums / Canola back-payment (10% of contracted price) R/ton 67 821
Net farm gate price R/ton 5 490 5 430 8 999 5 661 5 658
Gross income R/ha R12 077 R11 947 R13 498 R8 492 R7 921

2. Variable expenditures

Contracting R/ha
Crop insurance R/ha 35 34 39 24
Fertilizer R/ha 2 722 2 587 3 301 2 198 1 118
Lime R/ha 232 232 232 194
Seed R/ha 643 500 1 244 723 904
Fuel R/ha 763 781 784 741 710
Herbicide R/ha 1 212 935 994 938 806
Insecticide R/ha 364 97 286 155 156
Fungicides R/ha 557 948 630 187 381
Marketing costs R/ha 52 71 29
Repairs and maintenance R/ha 711 678 729 678 678
Casual labour R/ha 16 14 16 14 12
Aerial spray R/ha
Other expenditure R/ha 154 156 146 37 37
Total variable expenditure R/ha R7 460 R7 033 R8 431 R5 889 R4 803
Total variable expenditure R/ton R3 391 R3 197 R5 621 R3 926 R3 431
3.1 Gross margin R/ha R4 617 R4 914 R5 067 R2 603 R3 118
3.2 Gross margin R/ton R2 099 R2 234 R3 378 R1 735 R2 227
Break-even yield T/ha 1.36 1.30 0.94 1.04 0.85
Break-even price R/ton R3 391 R3 197 R5 621 R3 926 R3 431
Source: SSK, GSA and BFAP, updated April 2023.
Gross margin comparison – Baseline: Southern Cape (Eastern Rûens – low potential)
Gross margin comparison – Baseline: Southern Cape (Eastern Ruens - low potential region)

Gross margin per hectare: Southern Cape – Eastern Rûens (low potential)

Wheat sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 1.45 1.70 1.95 2.20 2.45 2.70 2.95
R4 490 -950 173 1 295 2 417 3 540 4 662 5 785
R4 740 -587 598 1 783 2 967 4 152 5 337 6 522
R4 990 -225 1 023 2 270 3 517 4 765 6 012 7 260
R5 240 138 1 448 2 758 4 067 5 377 6 687 7 997
R5 490 500 1 873 3 245 4 617 5 990 7 362 8 735
R5 740 863 2 298 3 733 5 167 6 602 8 037 9 472
R5 990 1 225 2 723 4 220 5 717 7 215 8 712 10 210
R6 240 1 588 3 148 4 708 6 267 7 827 9 387 10 947
R6 490 1 950 3 573 5 195 6 817 8 440 10 062 11 685
Barley sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 1.45 1.70 1.95 2.20 2.45 2.70 2.95
R4 430 -609 499 1 606 2 714 3 822 4 929 6 037
R4 680 -246 924 2 094 3 264 4 434 5 604 6 774
R4 930 116 1 349 2 581 3 814 5 047 6 279 7 512
R5 180 479 1 774 3 069 4 364 5 659 6 954 8 249
R5 430 841 2 199 3 556 4 914 6 272 7 629 8 987
R5 680 1 204 2 624 4 044 5 464 6 884 8 304 9 724
R5 930 1 566 3 049 4 531 6 014 7 497 8 979 10 462
R6 180 1 929 3 474 5 019 6 564 8 109 9 654 11 199
R6 430 2 291 3 899 5 506 7 114 8 722 10 329 11 937
Canola sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25
R7 999 -2 432 -432 1 567 3 567 5 567 7 567 9 566
R8 249 -2 244 -182 1 880 3 942 6 004 8 067 10 129
R8 499 -2 057 68 2 192 4 317 6 442 8 567 10 691
R8 749 -1 869 318 2 505 4 692 6 879 9 067 11 254
R8 999 -1 682 568 2 817 5 067 7 317 9 567 11 816
R9 249 -1 494 818 3 130 5 442 7 754 10 067 12 379
R9 499 -1 307 1 068 3 442 5 817 8 192 10 567 12 941
R9 749 -1 119 1 318 3 755 6 192 8 629 11 067 13 504
R9 999 -932 1 568 4 067 6 567 9 067 11 567 14 066
Canola margin above/below wheat
Yield Price (R/ton)
R8 249 R8 499 R8 749 R8 999 R9 249 R9 499 R9 749
0.50 -8 924 -8 799 -8 674 -8 549 -8 424 -8 299 -8 174
0.75 -6 862 -6 674 -6 487 -6 299 -6 112 -5 924 -5 737
1.00 -4 800 -4 550 -4 300 -4 050 -3 800 -3 550 -3 300
1.25 -2 737 -2 425 -2 112 -1 800 -1 487 -1 175 -862
1.50 -675 -300 75 450 825 1 200 1 575
1.75 1 387 1 824 2 262 2 699 3 137 3 574 4 012
2.00 3 449 3 949 4 449 4 949 5 449 5 949 6 449
2.25 5 511 6 074 6 636 7 199 7 761 8 324 8 886
2.50 7 574 8 199 8 824 9 449 10 074 10 699 11 324

Notes

  • The cost items reflect the input allocation based on the target yield for the respective crops.
  • Although some expenditure items are zero, it is reflected in the budgets to allow for individual inclusion.
  • The cost of fuel includes pre-harvest and harvesting costs with the assumption that own machinery is used.
  • The costs for wheat, barley and oats seeds reflect a combination of own and purchased seed.
  • It is important to note that overhead costs are not included and should be accounted for. Overhead costs such as interest on production loans, labour, management and administration will vary to a large extent from producer to producer. Producers will therefore have to deduct the farm business' overhead cost from the gross margins as stipulated in the tables and figures to calculate the net income per crop.
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