Final area planted and crop production figures of commercial maize, sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts and sorghum for 2018

At a meeting held on 13 February 2019, the Crop Estimates Liaison Committee (CELC) oversaw the process for the finalisation of the crop production figures of commercial white and yellow maize, sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts and sorghum for 2018.

The estimated total production figures as released by the national Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) were revised, using the published figures of the South Africa Grain Information Services (SAGIS) of actual deliveries as the basis for the calculations. The figures from the maize utilisation survey to determine on-farm usage and retentions, which was conducted by the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF) and the telephonic survey conducted by the National Crop Statistics Consortium (NCSC), were added to the SAGIS delivery figures to calculate the final crop production figures.

Comparing the final calculated crop figures with the numbers set by the CEC during September 2018, the size of the commercial maize crop is now 12,510 mill. tons, which is 3,26% or 421 210 tons less than the final crop estimate figure of 12,931 mill. tons. For white maize, the recalculated crop size is 6,540 mill. tons, which is 3,85% or 261 560 tons less than the final crop estimate figure, and for yellow maize the recalculated crop size is 5,970 mill. tons, which is 2,60% or 159 650 tons less than the final crop estimate figure.

In the case of the commercial sunflower seed crop, the final calculated crop figure is now 862 000 tons, an increase of 3 395 tons or 0,40% compared to the final crop estimate figure. The sorghum crop were adjusted upward by 4,68% (or 5 145 tons). The soybeans crop was slightly adjusted downward, from 1 550 800 tons to 1 540 000 tons, which is 0,70% or 10 800 tons less. The groundnuts crop were adjusted upward by 6,05% (or 3 250 tons).

CELC accepted the final recalculated crop production figures for 2018 (please refer to the figures in the accompanying tables).

The CEC would like to thank all producers and industry role-players who provided information on a regular basis to improve the accuracy of the crop estimates. Producers, who do not participate in the Department's monthly survey, are requested as a matter of urgency to make an effort to contribute to the crop estimates process.

Summary of final area planted and crop production figures of commercial summer crops for 2018
Crop Final area planted Final crop CEC area planted CEC final estimate ¹ Final crop vs final estimate
2018 2018 September 2018 September 2018
Ha Tons Ha Tons %
(A) (B) (C) (D) (B) ÷ (D)
  White maize 1 268 100 6 540 000 1 268 100 6 801 560 -3.85
  Yellow maize 1 050 750 5 970 000 1 050 750 6 129 650 -2.60
Total Maize 2 318 850 12 510 000 2 318 850 12 931 210 -3.26
Sunflower seed 601 500 862 000 601 500 858 605 +0.40
Soybeans 787 200 1 540 000 787 200 1 550 800 -0.70
Groundnuts 56 300 57 000 56 300 53 750 +6.05
Sorghum 28 800 115 000 28 800 109 855 +4.68

¹  As estimated by the CEC on 26 September 2018

Calculation summary: commercial maize, sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts and sorghum
Crop Total Producer deliveries reported by SAGIS ² Projected deliveries ³ On-farm for own use/direct sales, etc.
(Mar 2018 - Jan 2019) (Feb 2019)
Tons Tons Tons Tons
  White maize 6 540 000 6 306 786 33 214 200 000
  Yellow maize 5 970 000 5 555 352 64 648 350 000
Total maize 12 510 000 11 862 138 97 862 550 000
Sorghum 115 000 111 672 1 928 1 400
Sunflower seed 862 000 860 221 1 779 –
Soybeans 1 540 000 1 496 318 5 682 38 000
Groundnuts 57 000 56 417 383 200

²  SAGIS producer deliveries relates to the current crop.

³  Projected deliveries for maize, sunflower seed and soybeans are based on the historic trend of producer deliveries (as recorded by SAGIS) for the month of February. With regard to sorghum and groundnuts, projected deliveries are based on the historic trend of producer deliveries for the month of January and February.