Final area planted and crop production figures of winter cereals for the 2018 production season

At a meeting held on 9 May 2019, the Crop Estimates Liaison Committee (CELC) oversaw the process for the finalisation of the crop production figures of commercial wheat, malting barley and canola for 2018.

The estimated total production figures as released by the national Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) were revised, using the published figures of the South Africa Grain Information Services (SAGIS) of actual deliveries as the basis for the calculations. The figures from the wheat utilisation survey to determine on-farm usage and retentions, which was conducted by the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF), were added to the SAGIS delivery figures to calculate the final crop production figures.

Comparing the final calculated crop figures with the numbers set by the CEC during February 2019, the size of the commercial wheat crop is now 1 868 000 tons, which is 26 950 tons or 1,46% more than the final crop estimate figure of 1 841 050 tons. For malting barley the recalculated crop size is 421 500 tons, which is 290 tons or 0,07% less than the final crop estimate figure of 421 790 tons. The final recalculated canola crop estimate figure is 104 500 tons, which is higher (550 tons or 0,53%) than the final crop estimate figure of 103 950 tons.

CELC accepted the final recalculated crop production figures for 2018 (please refer to the figures in the accompanying tables).

The CEC would like to thank all producers and industry role-players who provided information on a regular basis to improve the accuracy of the crop estimates. Producers, who do not participate in the Department's monthly survey, are requested as a matter of urgency to make an effort to contribute to the crop estimates process.

Winter cereals
Final area planted and crop figures for the 2018 production season
Crop Final area planted Final crop CEC area planted ¹ CEC final estimate ¹ Final crop vs
Final estimate
Ha Tons Ha Tons %
(A) (B) (C) (D) (B) ÷ (D)
Wheat 503 350 1 868 000 503 350 1 841 050 +1.46
Malting barley 119 000 421 500 119 000 421 790 -0.07
Canola 77 000 104 500 77 000 103 950 +0.53

¹  As estimated by the CEC on 27 February 2019.

The calculation of the final winter cereal crops for the 2018 production season is as follows:
Crop Final crop Producer deliveries reported by SAGIS ¹ Estimated future deliveries Retentions on farms
for own use
(Oct 2018 - Mar 2019) (Apr - Sept 2019)
Wheat 1 868 000 1 791 939 43 061 33 000²
Malting barley 421 500 419 082 918 1 500
Wheat 104 500 104 052 248 100

¹  SAGIS deliveries relate to the current crop.
²  Based on a survey undertaken by the Directorate: Statistics and Economic Analysis of the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries.