Research Report 2016/2017

Annexure III

Short and medium term demand and usage of fishmeal and oilcake
(updated February 2017)

Table 1
Fishmeal and Oilcake balance sheet   (2014/2015-2016/2017) (April-March)
  Fishmeal (ton) Oilcake (ton)
Year 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017
Requirements / Sales 45 000 20 000 20 000 1 966 459 1 981 986 1 820 298
Available / Produced 85 000 78 000 78 000 1 170 699 1 299 277 1 097 298
Shortage / Imports -40 000 -58 000 -58 000 795 760 682 709 723 000

2015/2016 – Estimate
Source: Fishing industry

Table 2
Fishmeal and Oilcake usage   (2014/2015-2016/2017) (April-March)
  Fishmeal (ton) Oilcake (ton)
Year 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017
AFMA Members 23 185 12 178 23 185 1 343 025 1 385 703 1 345 937
Non-AFMA Members 21 815 7 822 21 815 623 434 596 283 474 361
Total 45 000 20 000 45 000 1 966 459 1 981 986 1 820 298

Source: AFMA website
2015/2016 – Estimate
Non-AMFA members figures can also include unused stocks.

Table 3
The Main Raw Material usage by AFMA-members   (2014/2015-2016/2017) (April-March)
  Total (ton) Inclusion rate (%) Total (ton) Inclusion rate (%) Total (ton) Inclusion rate (%)
Raw Materials 2014/2015   2015/2016   2016/2017  
Sunflower oilcake 294 583 4.58 308 633 4.30 293 787 4.40
Groundnut oilcake 1 917 0.03 573 0.01 0 0.00
Soya oilcake 821 670 12.78 936 283 13.03 919 454 13.76
Full fat soya 75 267 1.17 72 415 1.01 63 879 0.96
Cottonseed oilcake 20 892 0.32 8 888 0.12 9 354 0.14
Full fat cottonseed 10 340 0.16 7 845 0.11 10 121 0.15
Canola oilcake 23 555 0.37 38 109 0.53 38 767 0.58
Full fat canola 0 0.00 546 0.00 597 0.00
Copra and Palm kernel 23 231 0.36 11 568 0.16 9 978 0.15
Maize germ oilcake 1 368 0.02 843 0.01 0 0.00
Total oilcake 1 343 025 19.79 1 385 703 19.29 1 345 937 20.15
Total maize products 3 493 998 51.69 3 595 160 50.05 3 426 972 51.29
Total fishmeal 23 185 0.31 12 178 0.17 12 825 0.19
Feed 6 714 004   6 908 424   6 680 988  

Source: AFMA website
AFMA raw material usage April 2016 to March 2017 extrapolated from first 8 month usage.
* Note: total oilcake in Table 3 include all oilcake and not only specific oilcake items listed in Table 3.

Table 4
Fishmeal: local production and imports   (2012/2013-2015/2016) (April-March)
  Local (RSA + Namibia) Fishmeal production (ton) Imported Fishmeal (ton)
Year 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016
PROJECT		 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016
RSA 70 000 65 000 62 000 64 600
Namibia ¹ 14 000 13 000 13 000 13 000
Total 84 000 78 000 75 000 77 600 0 0 0

Source: AFMA; SA Fishmeal Marketing Company
2015/2016 – Estimate
¹ Includes Russian trawlers operating in Namibian waters.

Table 5
Oilcake: local production and imports   (2014/2015-2016/2017)
  Local Oilcake production (ton) Imported Oilcake (ton)
Year 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017
(Projected)		 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017
(Projected)
Oilcake:
Groundnuts oilcake 0 0 0 588 0 0
Sunflower oilcake 320 842 280 368 262 200 166 273 67 887 70 000
Soya cake 654 839 750 898 646 000 609 613 587 692 618 000
  – Full fat 118 598 121 763 105 000
Cotton cake 98 478 59 468 9 000
  – Full fat 8 740 19 098 19 098 11 749 25 898 11 000
Other:
Canola 53 680 51 150 51 000 0 0 0
Lupins 14 000 6 000 14 000 0 0 0
Copra and Palm kernel 57 035 24 713 15 000
Total 1 170 699 1 229 277 1 097 298 943 736 765 658 723 000

Source: SAGIS
2016/2017 – Estimate
The projected local production figures for soya and cotton reflect full fat and oilcake.
South African Supply and Demand Estimate Report NAMC 13 February 2017.