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Navorsingsverslag 2008/2009

Bylae III

Short- and medium-term requirements and usage of fishmeal and oilcake

(Updated January 2009)

Table 1
Fishmeal and Oilcake balance sheet   (2006/2007-2008/2009) (April-March)
  Fishmeal (ton) Oilcake (ton)
Year 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009
Requirements / Sales 60 000 55 000 100 000 1 635 526 1 758 185 1 700 000
Available / Produced 87 000 91 700 91 000 608 370 494 557 695 291
Shortage / Imports (-27 000) (-36 700) 9 000 1 027 156 1 263 628 1 004 709

2007/2008 – Estimate
Source: Fishing industry; AFMA Chairman's Report 2007/2008

Table 2
Fishmeal and Oilcake usage   (2006/2007-2008/2009) (April-March)
  Fishmeal (ton) Oilcake (ton)
Year 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009
AFMA Members 78 284 37 841 28 216 907 582 1 063 945 1 127 178
Non-AFMA Members 1 716 22 129 11 784 506 756 571 580 372 822
Total 80 000 60 000 40 000 1 414 338 1 635 525 1 500 000

Source: AFMA Chairman's Report 2007/2008
2008/2009 – Estimate
Non-AMFA members figures can also include unused stocks.

Table 3
The Main Raw Material usage by AFMA-members   (2006/2007-2008/2009) (April-March)
  Total (ton) Inclusion rate (%) Total (ton) Inclusion rate (%) Total (ton) Inclusion rate (%)
Raw Materials 2006/2007   2007/2008   2008/2009  
Sunflower oilcake 169 172 3.79 167 836 2.67 248 739 4.84
Groundnuts oilcake 316 0.01 0 0.00 2 0.00
Soy oilcake 653 463 14.64 752 073 15.35 720 345 14.01
Full fat soy 183 047 4.10 130 609 2.67 79 209 1.54
Cotton oilcake 35 590 0.80 19 068 0.39 23 042 0.45
Full fat cotton 10 241 0.23 9 074 0.19 5 330 0.10
Canola oilcake 4 330 0.10 2 963 0.06 2 362 0.05
Full fat canola 3 757 0.08 553 0.01 53 0.00
Copra and Palm Kernel 4 029 0.09 7 016 0.14 5 398 0.10
Maize Germ Oilcake 2 859 0.06 5 750 0.12 3 509 0.07
Total oilcake 1 063 945 24.67 1 094 941 22.34 1 087 989 21.16
Total maize products 2 428 502 54.05 2 627 498 53.61 2 888 653 56.18
Total fishmeal 37 871 0.88 48 156 1.12 93 247 1.81

Source: AFMA Chairman's Report 2007/2008
AFMA raw material usage April 2008 to March 2009.
* Note: total oilcake in Table 3 include all oilcake and not only specific oilcake items listed in Table 3.

Table 4
Fishmeal: local production and imports   (2006/2007-2008/2009) (April-March)
  Local (RSA + Namibia) Fishmeal production (ton) Imported fishmeal (ton)
Year 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009
RSA 75 000 85 000 85 000
Namibia 12 000 6 700 6 000
Total 87 000 91 700 91 000 (-27 000) (-36 700) 9 000

Source: AFMA; SA Fishmeal Marketing Company
2008/2009 – Estimate

Table 5
Oilcake: local production and imports   (2006/2007-2008/2009)
  Local Oilcake production (ton) Imported Oilcake (ton)
Year 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009
Oilcake:
Groundnuts oilcake 2 515 54 540 344
Sunflower oilcake 199 500 138 558 371 935 68 808 103 987
Soy cake 113 440 115 200 258 396 808 051 904 214
– Full fat 189 840 138 000 3 949 104 377
– Beans
Cotton cake 32 500 32 500 32 500 99 617 109 988
– Full fat 35 000 35 000 39 766 33 338
Other 6 965 7 425
Canola 21 175 21 945 22 120
Lupins 14 400 13 300 9 800
Copra & Palm Kernel
Total 608 370 494 557 695 291 1 027 291 1 263 673 1 004 709

Source: AFMA Chairman's Report 2007/2008
2008/2009 – Estimate
The projected local production figures for soya and cotton reflect full fat and oilcake.

Table 6
Oilseed and Grain crops in the RSA (ton)   (2004/2005-2008/2009 marketing season)
Crop 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009
White maize 5 805 000 6 540 700 4 187 400 4 315 000 7 480 000
Yellow maize 3 677 000 4 909 300 2 430 600 2 810 000 5 220 000
Sorghum 373 000 260 000 96 000 176 000 255 000
Groundnuts 115 000 64 000 74 000 58 000 88 800
Sunflower 648 000 620 000 520 000 300 000 872 000
Soybeans 220 000 272 500 424 000 205 000 282 000
Cotton seed 50 169 37 804 25 962 19 525 17 378
Wheat 1 680 000 1 905 000 2 105 000 1 905 000 2 022 000
Sweet Lupins 3 950 14 100 14 400 13 300 14 000
Canola 32 000 44 200 36 500 38 150 34 000

Source: National Crop Estimates Committee; Fifth forecast for winter crops (18 December 2008) and final crop estimate for summer crops for the 2008/2009 marketing year (27 November 2008).
¹ Cotton South Africa.

Table 7
Estimated Oilseed and Grain supply in the RSA (ton)   (2008/2009 marketing season)
Crop Opening stock Imports to RSA Production Total supply
White maize 618 000 0 7 480 000 8 098 000
Yellow maize 439 000 0 5 220 000 5 659 000
Sorghum 43 000 0 255 000 298 000
Groundnuts 19 000 10 000 88 800 117 800
Sunflower 95 000 3 000 872 000 970 000
Soybeans 97 000 16 000 282 000 395 000
Wheat 509 000 1 130 000 2 022 000 3 661 000
Canola 10 900 0 34 000 44 900

Source: Opening stock, import, production and export figures obtained from Grain South Africa.

Table 8
Area Planted to Oilseed and Grain crops in the RSA   (2003/2004-2008/2009 production season)
  Ha planted
Crop 2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009
White maize 1 842 000 1 700 000 1 033 000 1 624 800 1 737 000 1 600 000
Yellow maize 1 001 300 1 110 000 567 200 927 000 1 062 000 962 000
Sorghum 130 000 86 500 37 150 69 000 86 800 94 900
Groundnuts 71 500 40 000 48 550 40 770 54 200 57 500
Sunflower 530 000 460 000 472 480 316 350 564 300 586 400
Soybeans 135 000 150 000 240 570 183 000 165 400 227 500
Wheat 748 000 830 000 805 000 764 800 632 000 748 000
Sweet Lupins 10 100 7 100 14 100 16 000 14 000 14 000
Canola 44 200 44 250 40 200 32 000 33 260 34 000
Total 4 512 100 4 427 850 3 258 250 3 973 720 4 348 960 4 324 300

National Crops Estimates Committee – Intentions to plant summer crops 2008/2009 production season (23 October 2008). Fifth area estimate for winter crops 2008/2009 production season (18 December 2008).

Table 9
Note on Marketing Season for Summer and Winter crops
Crop Season
White maize May-April
Yellow maize May-April
Sorghum April-March
Groundnuts March-February
Sunflower January-December
Soybeans January-December
Wheat October-September