Navorsingsverslag 2009/2010

Bylae III

Kort- en mediumtermyn behoeftes en verbruik van vismeel en oliekoek

(Opdateer Januarie 2010)

Tabel 1
Fishmeal and Oilcake balance sheet   (2007/2008-2009/2010) (April-March)
  Fishmeal (ton) Oilcake (ton)
Year 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010
Requirements / Sales 55 000 95 000 90 000 1 758 185 1 664 927 1 700 000
Available / Produced 91 700 82 500 77 500 494 557 565 181 665 334
Shortage / Imports (36 700) 12 500 12 500 1 263 628 1 099 746 1 034 666

2009/2010 – Estimate
Source: Fishing industry; AFMA Chairman's Report 2008/2009

Tabel 2
Fishmeal and Oilcake usage   (2007/2008-2009/2010) (April-March)
  Fishmeal (ton) Oilcake (ton)
Year 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010
AFMA Members 48 156 74 345 76 721 1 094 941 1 093 339 1 177 095
Non-AFMA Members 6 844 20 655 13 279 663 244 571 588 522 905
Total 55 000 95 000 90 000 1 758 185 1 664 927 1 700 000

Source: AFMA Chairman's Report 2008/2009
2009/2010 – Estimate
Non-AMFA members figures can also include unused stocks.

Tabel 3
The Main Raw Material usage by AFMA-members   (2007/2008-2009/2010) (April-March)
  Total (ton) Inclusion rate (%) Total (ton) Inclusion rate (%) Total (ton) Inclusion rate (%)
Raw Materials 2007/2008   2008/2009   2009/2010  
Sunflower oilcake 167 836 2.67 248 884 4.93 311 462 5.89
Groundnuts oilcake 0 0.00 1 0.00 0 0.00
Soy oilcake 752 073 15.35 716 143 14.18 677 887 12.82
Full fat soy 130 609 2.67 92 474 1.83 149 580 2.83
Cottonseed oilcake 19 068 0.39 19 886 0.39 20 460 0.39
Full fat cottonseed 9 074 0.19 4 902 0.10 4 351 0.08
Canola oilcake 2 963 0.06 2 147 0.04 2 055 0.04
Full fat canola 553 0.01 31 0.00 115 0.00
Copra and Palm Kernel 7 016 0.14 4 887 0.10 6 600 0.12
Maize Germ Oilcake 5 750 0.12 3 984 0.08 4 584 0.09
Total oilcake 1 094 941 22.34 1 093 339 21.65 1 177 095 22.26
Total maize products 2 627 498 53.61 2 844 879 52.46 2 897 461 54.79
Total fishmeal 48 156 1.12 74 345 1.47 76 721 1.45

Source: AFMA Chairman's Report 2008/2009
AFMA raw material usage April 2009 to March 2010.
* Note: total oilcake in Table 3 include all oilcake and not only specific oilcake items listed in Table 3.

Tabel 4
Fishmeal: local production and imports   (2007/2008-2009/2010) (April-March)
  Local (RSA + Namibia) Fishmeal production (ton) Imported fishmeal (ton)
Year 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010
RSA 85 000 75 000 70 000
Namibia 6 700 7 500 7 500
Total 91 700 82 500 77 500 (36 700) 12 500 12 500

Source: AFMA; SA Fishmeal Marketing Company
2009/2010 – Estimate

Tabel 5
Oilcake: local production and imports   (2007/2008-2009/2010)
  Local Oilcake production (ton) Imported Oilcake (ton)
Year 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010
Oilcake:
Groundnuts oilcake 54 1 216 344
Sunflower oilcake 138 558 296 520 367 618 103 987 68 234
Soy cake 115 200 240 000 904 214 925 270
  - Full fat 138 000 88 000 104 377 4 302
  - Beans 93 600
Cotton cake 32 500 51 500 32 500 109 988 81 778
  - Full fat 35 000 33 338 20 151
Other 7 425 11
Canola 21 945 21 560 11 000
Lupins 13 300 14 000 14 000
Copra & Palm Kernel
Total 494 557 565 181 665 334 1 263 673 1 099 746 1 034 666

Source: AFMA Chairman's Report 2008/2009
2009/2010 – Estimate
The projected local production figures for soya and cotton reflect full fat and oilcake.

Tabel 6
Oilseed and Grain crops in the RSA (ton)   (2005/2006-2009/2010 marketing season)
Crop 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009<2010th> 2009/2010
White maize 6 540 700 4 187 400 4 315 000 7 480 000 6 775 000
Yellow maize 4 909 300 2 430 600 2 810 000 5 220 000 5 275 000
Sorghum 260 000 96 000 176 000 255 000 276 500
Groundnuts 64 000 74 000 58 000 88 800 99 500
Sunflower 620 000 520 000 300 000 872 000 801 000
Soybeans 272 500 424 000 205 000 282 000 516 000
Cotton seed 37 804 25 962 19 525 17 378 15 658
Wheat 1 905 000 2 105 000 1 905 000 2 130 000 1 979 250
Canola 44 200 36 500 38 150 30 800 45 660

Source: National Crop Estimates Committee; Fifth production estimate for winter crops (17 December 2009) and final crop estimate for summer crops for the 2009/2010 marketing year (26 November 2009).
¹ Cotton South Africa.

Tabel 7
Estimated Oilseed and Grain supply in the RSA (ton)   (2009/2010 marketing season)
Crop Opening stock Imports to RSA Production Total supply
White maize 766 000 0 6 775 000 7 541 000
Yellow maize 819 000 0 5 275 000 6 094 000
Sorghum 63 000 5 000 276 500 344 500
Groundnuts 27 000 7 000 99 500 133 500
Sunflower 236 000 54 000 801 000 1 091 000
Soybeans 90 000 2 000 516 000 608 000
Wheat 686 000 1 100 000 1 979 250 3 765 250
Canola 10 900 0 45 660 56 560

Source: Opening stock, import, production and export figures obtained from Grain South Africa.

Tabel 8
Area Planted to Oilseed and Grain crops in the RSA   (2004/2005-2009/2010 production season)
  Ha planted
Crop 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010
White maize 1 700 000 1 033 000 1 624 800 1 737 000 1 489 000 1 644 500
Yellow maize 1 110 000 567 200 927 000 1 062 000 938 500 927 500
Sorghum 86 500 37 150 69 000 86 800 85 500 70 000
Groundnuts 40 000 48 550 40 770 54 200 54 550 63 500
Sunflower 460 000 472 480 316 350 564 300 635 800 452 500
Soybeans 150 000 240 570 183 000 165 400 237 750 271 000
Wheat 830 000 805 000 764 800 632 000 748 000 657 500
Canola 44 250 40 200 32 000 33 260 34 000 38 060
Total 4 420 750 3 244 150 3 957 720 4 334 960 4 223 100 4 124 560

National Crops Estimates Committee – Intentions to plant Summer crops 2009/2010 production season (27 October 2009) and fifth forecast to plant Winter crops 2009 production season (17 December 2009).

Tabel 9
Note on Marketing Season for Summer and Winter crops
Crop Season
White maize May-April
Yellow maize May-April
Sorghum April-March
Groundnuts March-February
Sunflower January-December
Soybeans January-December
Wheat October-September