Navorsingsverslag 2006/2007

Bylae III

Short- and medium-term requirements and usage of fishmeal and oilcake

(Bylae aangebied in die taal waarin dit ontvang is)

Table 1
Fishmeal and Oilcake balance sheet   (2004/2005-2006/2007) (April-March)
  Fishmeal (ton) Oilcake (ton)
Year 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007
Requirements / Sales 127 000 80 000 60 000 1 212 593 1 414 338 1 200 000
Available / Produced 132 000 101 000 76 000 416 736 572 231 723 774
Shortage / Imports (-5 000) (-21 000) (-16 000) 795 857 842 107 476 226

2006/2007 – Estimate
Source: Fishing industry; AFMA Chairman's Report 2003/2004 & 2005/2006

Table 2
Fishmeal and Oilcake usage   (2004/2005-2006/2007) (April-March)
  Fishmeal (ton) Oilcake (ton)
Year 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007
AFMA Members 100 879 78 284 45 654 818 767 907 582 1 014 123
Non-AFMA Members 26 121 1 716 14 346 393 826 506 756 185 877
Total 127 000 80 000 60 000 1 212 593 1 414 338 1 200 000

Source: AFMA Chairman's Report 2005/2006
2006/2007 – Estimate
Non-AMFA members figures can also include unused stocks.

Table 3
The Main Raw Material usage by AFMA-members   (2004/2005-2006/2007) (April-March)
  Total (ton) Inclusion rate (%) Total (ton) Inclusion rate (%) Total (ton) Inclusion rate (%)
Raw Materials 2004/2005   2005/2006   2006/2007  
Sunflower oilcake 213 837 4.96 216 605 5.02 174 258 3.74
Groundnuts oilcake 891 0.02 2 636 0.06 544 0.01
Soy oilcake 448 648 10.40 473 885 10.98 623 184 13.38
Full fat soy 92 968 2.16 147 702 3.43 159 564 3.42
Cotton oilcake 46 396 1.08 50 865 1.18 39 822 0.58
Full fat cotton 4 340 0.10 6 454 0.15 5 784 0.12
Canola oilcake 5 138 0.12 5 344 0.12 2 834 0.06
Full fat canola 454 0.01 1 218 0.03 2 558 0.05
Total oilcake 818 767 18.97 907 582 21.04 1 014 123 21.77
Total maize products 2 384 886 55.34 2 387 611 53.51 2 391 250 51.32
Total fishmeal 100 879 2.34 78 284 1.82 45 654 0.98

Source: AFMA Chairman's Report 2005/2006
AFMA raw material usage April 2006 to March 2007.
* Note: total oilcake in Table 3 include all oilcake and not only specific oilcake items listed in Table 3.

Table 4
Fishmeal: local production and imports   (2004/2005-2006/2007) (April-March)
  Local (RSA + Namibia) Fishmeal production (ton) Imported fishmeal (ton)
Year 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007
RSA 120 000 95 000 70 000
Namibia 12 000 6 000 6 000
Total 132 000 101 000 76 000 (-5 000) (-21 000) (-16 000)

Source: AFMA; SA Fishmeal Marketing Company
2006/2007 – Estimate

Table 5
Oilcake: local production and imports   (2004/2005-2006/2007)
  Local Oilcake production (ton) Imported Oilcake (ton)
Year 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007
Oilcake:
Groundnuts oilcake 1 766 1 391 4 280
Sunflower oilcake 277 200 267 120 261 660 16 073 22 144
Soy cake 37 200 402 400 626 244 635 173
- Full fat 92 080 172 800 22 234 4 504
- Beans
Cotton cake 21 170 37 500 18 234 89 056 121 947
- Full fat 35 000 32 315 52 684
Other 9 975 5 655
Canola 20 570 17 270 23 100
Lupins 3 950 3 950 14 100
Copra & Palm Kernel
Total 416 736 572 231 723 774 795 897 842 107 488 916

Source: AFMA Chairman's Report 2005/2006
2005/2006 – Estimate
The projected local production figures for soya and cotton reflect full fat and oilcake.

Table 6
Oilseed and Grain crops in the RSA (ton)   (2002/2003-2006/2007 marketing season)
Crop 2002/2003 2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007
White maize 5 078 000 6 371 000 5 805 000 6 540 700 4 187 400
Yellow maize 3 386 000 3 019 000 3 677 000 4 909 300 2 430 600
Sorghum 208 000 219 700 373 000 260 000 96 000
Groundnuts 120 200 60 000 115 000 64 000 74 000
Sunflower 932 000 642 075 648 000 620 000 520 000
Soybeans 216 000 136 500 220 000 272 500 424 000
Cotton seed 36 530 29 278 50 169 37 804 5 962
Wheat 2 320 745 1 428 150 1 680 000 1 905 000 2 161 170
Sweet lupins 11 700 4 040 3 950 14 100 14 400
Canola 37 975 40 770 32 000 44 200 39 725

Source: National Crop Estimates Committee; Fifth forecast for winter crops (19 December 2006) and final crop estimate for summer crops for the 2006/2007 marketing year (30 November 2006).
SAGIS; Cotton South Africa.

Table 7
Oilseed and Grain supply in the RSA (ton)   (2006/2007 marketing season)
Crop Opening stock Imports to RSA Production Total supply
White maize 2 301 000 0 4 187 400 6 488 400
Yellow maize 868 000 1 225 000 2 430 600 4 523 600
Sorghum 185 000 10 000 96 000 291 000
Groundnuts 7 000 25 000 74 000 106 000
Sunflower 100 000 2 000 520 000 622 000
Soybeans 89 000 6 000 424 000 519 000
Wheat 583 000 750 000 2 161 170 3 494 170
Canola 15 300 0 39 725 55 025

Source: Opening stock, import, production and export figures obtained from Grain South Africa.
2006/2007 Marketing Season applies for winter crops.

Table 8
Area Planted to Oilseed and Grain crops in the RSA   (2001/2002-2006/2007 production season)
  Ha planted
Crop 2001/2002 2002/2003 2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007
White maize 1 721 580 2 234 350 1 842 000 1 700 000 1 033 000 1 767 000
Yellow maize 1 111 000 950 350 1 001 300 1 110 000 567 200 1 001 000
Sorghum 75 000 95 100 130 000 86 500 37 150 84 000
Groundnuts 94 160 49 850 71 500 40 000 48 550 50 500
Sunflower 645 510 605 750 530 000 460 000 472 480 390 000
Soybeans 124 150 100 150 135 000 150 000 240 570 220 000
Wheat 959 400 941 100 748 000 830 000 805 000 764 800
Sweet lupins 14 785 11 000 10 100 7 100 14 100 16 000
Canola 27 000 33 000 44 200 44 250 40 200 34 700
Total 4 772 585 5 020 650 4 512 100 4 427 850 3 258 250 4 328 000

National Crops Estimates Committee – Revised intentions to plant for summer crops 2006/2007 production season (21 November 2006). Fifth estimate to plant for winter crops 2006/2007 production season (19 December 2006).

Table 9
Note on Marketing Season for Summer and Winter crops
Crop Season
White maize May-April
Yellow maize May-April
Sorghum April-March
Groundnuts March-February
Sunflower January-December
Soybeans January-December
Wheat October-September